Adelaide is 7 games left, 5 on the road.

The scheduling of playing Perth in Perth on Friday night and then playing Cairns in Cairns on Sunday afternoon is pretty damn ordinary.

The whole NBL schedule needs to be better balanced moving forward, IMO. Games are too infrequent and then too frequent in contrast to what teams are used to, never allowing for fluency when needed, or breaks from games when needed. They play too infrequently early in the season, and then cram all the remaining games in over a 2-3 week period. It feels that way anyway, but happy to be put in place if I am not considering other factors.

Much of this rests on the JJ's.

Their injuries have opened it up a bit more.

They have remaining games here with my guess.

@ NZB - W
@ SYD - L
@ SEM - L
Vs ILL - L
@ MEL - L
Vs CRN - W

Which means 14 games is the requirement to get in.

The JJ's are the only team with a sub 100 Points %.

BRI and ADL need to win 4 of the last 7 to have a chance which is doable, but ADL need to win 'bigger' as they have a poor Points % or win 15 games.

Both play PER this week, BRI at home and ADL @ PER 2 days later.

The Perth game is supposed to be open roof which is bad for Perth.

Feels like it has drizzled about twice in the past 2 months, but Friday is currently forecast to be 'shower or two, chance of a thunderstorm", so that roof might not be open.

Totally agree that @Perth on Friday followed by @Cairns on Sunday is some shitty scheduling

Agreed, top six is set. Now it's just finishing order. Perth could be minor premiers at this stage. SEM could sneak up as well, kings look to be in trouble, to many name players not doing great. United no how to win should be top three, four at worst. JJs probably sixth, hawks should be top two.
Cats
Hawks
United
SEM
Kings
JJs.

By my reckoning the league needed to squash 29 games into 21 weeks for each team this season. That takes account of the early start and the FIBA break. That should mean no more than 3 games every 15 days. Certainly not the 4 games in 7 days we have seen recently. It just can't be that hard even with MU and SEM needing to be on the road this time of year. Starting the season in the last week of August would make the task even easier and would mean no more than 3 games every 18 days. We have the conversation every year that followers of the NBL will still tune in even with the NRL and AFL finals on. What the league does if they extend the season to 35 games and try to squash that number into 20 weeks makes the mind boggle.

Hawks should finish first. 19 wins will probably be enough, so they only need to beat Brisbane, Cairns, NZ and Tasmania. Perth and Melbourne should lose at least another game and Hawks have the superior pts differential.

Adelaide might make it at the expense of the hobbled JJs, but it's gonna be hard with all the away games.

Tas losing tomorrow Knowall trust me.

Yeah big duke you right. Not great start to my predictions

Majook out for the season I think they have to be a goose for finals. Otherwise think your analysis is pretty spot on!

Looking unlikely to change unless Sixers sneak in.

Would seem Sixers more chance of imploding than holding together to get enough wins.

I still think 13 wins and percentage get you in. JJs get sixth just imo, Sixers can but need a few away wins and travelling to Cairns for tomorrow game from Perth doesn't make it easy.

The non-stops flights from Perth to Cairns are crap or non-existent with the layover in Brisbane an epic waste of time. I recall how a Qantas staff member in BNE joked with me at how bad the connections while changing my flight. I'm not even a professional athlete and it was a drain.

at how bad the connections were*