Probably agree with your list at this point. Perth might even go to #1, early signs seem to be that this is the most balanced offensive Wildcats team in a while if nothing else. I'm still not sold on Tai at PG, but it might not matter with the rest of the talent they have. Should be a cracker of a game on Friday - Sydney's D should be a lot tighter than SEM's.

Only round 2 but Perth vs Sydney already feels like a huge game

Great summary. I agree Kings/Wildcats/Hawks the clear standout teams. All have incredible talent and depth across most positions. Kings frontline is somewhat undersized which is the only weakness I can see. SEM are hard to gauge with so many changes, I'm actually predicting they beat United this weekend however with Sobey to dominate, just too much firepower.

SEM very good chance of beating United. My theory at the start of any sporting season is always beware of any team before their first win.

SEM has talent, their best basketball will be very good (and their worst will be bad- we've seen flashes of both already). But at 0-1 and playing in front of their home fans, they need the win and I think they're definitely a better chance than the bookies odds suggest.

SEM has a lot talent but you need blue collar guys that get minutes, other than Hunter, who out there starters is a good defender, early days but big weekend for them.
Agree re, kings, cats and the hawks, clearly early front runners. Cairns are in a lot trouble even if Armstrong returns, import guards just don't seem great. If as predicted kings, hawks and cats are top three, still three spots for the rest, plenty to play for.

Top 2 is where you wanna be. Straight through to the semi-finals.

Even finishing 3rd, you've gotta win a game against a tough opponent just to make the semis. Lose that and you're facing an elimination game, with a win getting you an away series against top seed.

Very early call but it's difficult seeing anyone other than Sydney, Perth and Illawarra going top 2.

United are the obvious challenger, but just don't have as much talent as last season. And they're the oldest team in the league. Should start well but the advantage will dissipate as other teams develop their chemistry which United should already have.

JJ's without McVeigh should be solid but not top 2 level over the regular season. We already know Macdonald will miss 2-3 months.

Adelaide could be top 2 level if they keep Trez, giving them potentially 5 very good players along with several solid role players. But Martin's a long way away. For now, they're still a team who lacks depth. And it hasn't been proven that Trez and Humphries can succeed together.

NZ could surprise. But their fixture is atrocious, it's a big obstacle. They'll have an endless stream of double headers. And in most of them, they're travelling for one or both legs. There's only a couple with both in NZ. Very hard to finish top 2 in those circumstances.

SEM, I'm not writing them off but it's concerning they're having over 100 scored against them every game. (Except Adelaide at the Blitz but Adelaide rested 5 players). You need to be solid at both ends to succeed in this league.

LV, you've done great. Wanted full-round thread and found a fabulous way of getting everyone juiced up. Thanks and congrats. Hope you start off each round,

Still hope for indiv game threads, as they've been played perhaps, or even from tip-off?

All others. Also great contributions.

SEM are horrendous on defence. Downright putrid.Sure they can score but if they fall behind in games against the better teams like Perth,Sydney or the Hawks they will struggle to get back into it with their obvious defensive deficiencies.

RobT couldn't agree more, nice work LV

Cheers Rob and Word14

My big worry is for NZ, they could realistically start 2-0 and then go to America and derail everything

They're playing 3 games in the US, and in that same time period NBL teams will play 2 - 4 NBL games.

There's 6 days from the last NBA game to their first NBL game back.

So injuries, jet lag, shouldnt be a concern.

The concern is their ability to win games down the stretch of the NBL season when they're constantly playing double headers. After they return, 11 of the next 14 rounds they'll play a double header.

I'd love to see stats on this, but my feeling is if an NBL team is playing the 2nd leg of a double header against a fresh opponent, it's an advantage being the fresh team. I'd love if someone would compile those stats over say, a 10-year period to give a meaningful sample size.

They say with jet lag "East is least, West is best" so travelling west back homem 6 days is enough to acclimatise

If I ever find myself with a few free days I might do some research into the 'second game of double header vs fresh team' idea. Maybe someone else will do it sooner, I suspect the fresh team wins much more often then not though

The old timers all reckoned you had to wait for 6 rounds to get a good measure of where teams stood relative to each other. JJs debunked that in 2022 when they went 1 and 5 and then made the championship series. Similarly United went 0 and 6 in 2023 (I think) and then were probably the best team after. Some games flatter teams early in the season and we are all prone to recency bias. The team that really impressed me in round 1 was Adelaide. Thought with a little bit more composure they should have won and that would really have thrown the cat among the pigeons.

The challenging thing is teams like SEM and NZ have 0 and 1 starter remaining from last season

It would be foolish to write them off. They're literally brand new teams.

But I think we've already seen enough, and know enough, with Perth and Illawarra to know they'll be quite good (assuming health). Very similar groups to last year when they made semi finals. Illawarra very young group too.

And Sydney, well, we'd all agree they're the most talented roster (or one of). And when has a Goorj team ever failed to make top 4?

So you can talk about those 3 teams being good teams, with a high degree of confidence.

Who can catch them? Time will tell. Can't wait.

Only one game in, but Cairns need alot more from their fringe/bench players. Even if Armstrong's return frees up Edwards and Bradshaw were's still going to need bigger contributions, particularly from Stith, Waardenburg and Galloway.

On all but three of the Breakers double headers their second opponent that round is also on a double header.

"And when has a Goorj team ever failed to make top 4?"

1989.

FSTOS well thats 3 games where NZ would have a disadvantage, exactly how much of a disadvantage is an interesting question though

Sometimes the devil is in the detail, eg round 7
United plays on Thursday and Monday. NZ plays Saturday and Monday. NZ also has to travel from NZ, United stays in Melbourne. So that's a significant advantage to United I reckon, even though it doesn't fit into those 3 games.

Also NZ have further to travel generally- due to simple geography- which is an added disadvantage.

They also play in different venues around NZ which creates even more travel. eg they play 4 games in 9 days late November/early December- Illawarra, Perth, Christchurch, Wellington. (The following weekend they're in Auckland and Adelaide- a 5 hour flight. Melbourne for example wouldn't have a 5 hour flight, ever).

Interestingly Felix Von Hofe mentioned another fixture discrepancy on Overtime this week- SEM have 3 away games in Perth this season. Several teams have only 1.

@LV - I can look through my database for you. I was going to check it tonight, but a few other things came up and stopped me from doing it :(

Will let you know as soon as I crunch the numbers.

Cheers Statman, that'd be cool

If I ever find myself with a few free days I might do some research into the 'second game of double header vs fresh team' idea. Maybe someone else will do it sooner, I suspect the fresh team wins much more often then not though

McDaniel out for the season is a big blow for Brisbane

But all depends how Prather goes. If he lifts his game, and if Adel keeps playing anything like pre-season they'll be fine. They're actually fairly deep.

fyi if interested, a 20 minute interview on SEN this morning with Scott Roth that is worth a listen. Revealed there was a 3rd high profile injury concern a week or so ago when the team came back from Singapore. They thought Drmic had a stress fracture in his foot which fortunately turned out to just be an inflammatory tendon issue which is responding well. Also, MacDonald now hopefully back before December. Mentioned some players coming back into market for Saturday nights pregame championship banner unfurling. Question not asked whether that might include someone jetting in from Houston. I imagine McVeigh would really want to be there so would not be surprised if that is a being kept under wraps. Also put his hand up re the Jo Healy interview. Said he apologised to her shortly afterwards and she was really nice about it.

JJs may as well have the injuries now - as per last season all that matters is them peaking with their sheer grind-it-out style during playoffs.