TAS to repeat @ 8.00 average odds on Betfair.

The most important odds concerning the JJs are: what are the odds McVeigh returns?

If the answer is "low" then $8 or even $9 seems right.

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

I like the Hawks to make the playoffs.

LV, Betfair will have very liquid markets for all things NBL once the season starts and at better odds than the bookmakers but the rub is you pay 5% commission on your winnings so you need to factor that in. They also ban no-one and don't limit bets for winning punters. The futures markets can be less liquid but ok if just small investments. I think Bet365 still have an early payout at 18 points, that is until they take promos off you which doesn’t take much if a winning punter or use it too much. Their odds though are often not far off betfair and they have by far the best cash out feature (very close to live betfair odds) even letting you back out of your bet before the game starts without cost (unless the odds have moved in the meantime). Same caveat for all as LV. In the long run punting is a very slippery slope for a lot of people and requires extraordinary time, focus and discipline to make a profit (resources that are much better directed and profitable doing other things). Even just investing in exchange traded funds on the ASX, for example. Much better to just enjoy the thrill of the sporting contest in all its glory in the old fashioned way.

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

Interesting.

Thanks both

I'm not a gambler but what are united odds.

Are there odds for wooden spoon? I'd like to place a healthy wager on Brisbane.

JJs are $5 and United $5.50 on Vic TAB. United same on Betfair. Kings favourites at $3.50. Next Cats at $7. Others longer. Interestingly JJs still shortening. We're $6 the other day.

I'm wondering if TAB has scaled back their NBL offering because memory suggests historically they have more NBL markets at this stage of proceedings

There's not much across the different platforms except championship, minor premiership and playoffs (which means semi finals. Not play in)

Are the playoffs considered making the last 4?

Finals is top 6. NBL now calls the semi-finals the playoffs and the grand final the championship series.

With McVeigh, noticed the Rockets have 2 of last years 2 way contracted players still going to training camp and who are on Exhibit 10s (I think) and they can be upgraded to two way contracts again by 31October. That is not uncommon for NBa teams though. They may just end up staying on their exhibit 10s and playing G league. Roth talks about the task in front of McVeigh at some length on SEN last week. Explains how difficult it will be to even crack minutes for one game (although I have read they have to put you on the bench for at least 2 games) and that he will be basically playing G league (which doesn't sound that appealing for a 28 year old who Rucker rates as a top 5 player in the NBL). I know he stand to earn the $580k but that is only if he survives past 31 December. Roth talks about him potentially being offered a contract overseas that the JJs won’t be able to match if he is cut by the Rockets. Still find it intriguing though that the JJs have his 2025 JJs Jersey for sale even though he is currently not on the JJs roster.

Top 4 history- the last 6 years.

2019- Per, Melb, Syd, Bris
2020- Syd, Per, Cairns, Melb
2021- Mel, Per, Illawarra, SEM
2022- Mel, Syd, Illawarra, Tas
2023- Syd, NZ, Cairns, Tas (regular season top 4 and also semi finals)
2024- Mel, Per, Tas, Illawarra (regular season top 4 and also semi finals)

Melbourne has made 5 out of 6- the exception being 22-23 when Hukporti missed the season after doing his achilles at the Blitz, and Ili missed half the season with concussion. Still finished 15-13.
Tas 3 of 3 since entering the competition.
Perth 4 of 6. Finished 5th the other two years, still posting winning records of 16-12 and 15-13. One of them helped by an untimely Vic Law injury (2022). The other Rillie's rookie season (2023).
Sydney 4 of 6.
Illawarra 3 of 6 including 3 of the last 4. Goorjian’s two seasons then last year with the Tatum mid-season takeover.

Other clubs have snuck in from time to time.
- Brisbane in 2019 finished 4th with a 14-14 record (which is an oddity, given Perth went 16-12 and finished 5th in 2022, and United went 15-13 and finished 7th in 2023)
- SEM in 2021 but they had a great roster that year.
- Cairns in 2023 with DJ Hogg, McCall, and Pinder’s most improved year. Waardenburg with a great rookie season. Scott playing a role to perfection.
- Cairns in 2020 with the awesome import trio of Machado, Oliver and Newbill.
- NZ in 2023 with WMW, Pardon, Brantley, B Brown Jnr.

What stands out from this analysis:

1. The same old suspects keep getting in or going close. Melbourne and Perth have posted winning records every year. Tas are 3 from 3.

2. When other clubs make a cameo, it’s usually because they have great imports who exceed expectations.

I’m tipping history to repeat. I think the top 4 will be Sydney and Perth, and 2 of Illawarra, Melbourne and Tas. They all have talent, depth and strong coaches. (Rillie has had detractors but entering his 3rd season should be coming into his coaching prime).

But usually there’s one surprise package. One team who unexpectedly makes top 4. Illawarra after Tatum took over (2024), Cairns with Pinder’s massive improvement and DJ Hogg starring (2023), Tas in their first year (2022), Cairns with great imports (2020), Bris (2019).

But I’m wondering if Brisbane at $7 is a worthwhile bet.

It looks an even season. Could we have another 2019, where someone sneeks in with 14-14 (15-14 this year)?

Yes it’s only pre-season, but Brisbane have played well despite missing 2-4 players every game. It’s showcased their depth, with Deng Adel the surprise package and Harrison showing improvement. I’m not completely sold on Batemon or Cook yet, but they may have the depth and the structure to sneak into the top 4 without any alpha stud or MVP candidate.

When I say "it looks an even season" what I mean is, both JJs and United's rosters have downgraded.

So despite their combined 8 playoff appearances in their last 9 seasons, they may be challenged harder this year than last year.

Meanwhile the overall standard of some other teams (Brisbane, SEM, Adelaide) looks intriguer and potentially any of those teams could have their best season in many years if they stay healthy and click.

And Illawarra, while they stormed home last year, theyve lost Gary Clark and they dont have multiple years of proven success like the others. So they aren't quite a proven commodity (although I personally am very high on them).

I'm tempted to take the $7 value bet, because Brisbane finished 13-15 last year but they might have a better team this year.

Schueller into his 2nd season coaching.

Returning players: Harrison, Zikarsky, Bannan, McDaniel, White, Norton.

Outs: Imports: Scott, Smith. Locals: Sobey, Baynes, Mitchell.

Ins: Imports: Batemon, Cook, Prather. Locals: Deng Adel. Smith-Milner.

Firstly, returning players. Harrison, Zikarsky, Bannan - I expect significant improvement here compared to last season. Schuller should be more comfortable in his 2nd season and a team he’s had more input into.

Then the ins and outs.

Sobey obviously a big out. But the imports offset this to an extent, with 3 imports instead of 2 this year. (I’m adding Prather into the "ins" because he only played 7 games late last season).

Deng Adel looks surprisingly good. Should bring more than Mitchell did last year.

Baynes was cooked last season and bought more aggro than game. He won’t be missed. Arguably he was just holding back Zikarsky’s development.

Summary:

The biggest question is, and remains, how much they get from Batemon/Cook/Prather.

It’s challenging breaking into the top 4 with so many pre-eminent superpowers in the NBL (Syd, Per, Mel, Tas) and one of the middle teams looking quite good (Illawarra) with others having probably more top-line talent than Brisbane (SEM, Ade, NZ).

But Brisbane run deep. They’ve shown that already. They seem to have a decent system in place after a competitive first year under Schueller. At $7 it almost seems worth the bet.

LV $7 for Brisbane to win the title? Yeah nah they have no chance. They don't have enough starting 5 talent nor the bench depth in my opinion. They will be lucky to make the 6

That's their odds to make the playoffs (semifinals)

Sorry my apologies. That is a decent bet. Tough competition but they are a chance

Bullets looking far better than last season and only just missed playoffs last season. If they can keep Harrison and Rocco healthy with Prather and Adel showing good form they might knock on door for top four, certainly top six.

"I like the new mandatory advertising slogans- "Chances are you're about to lose", "Win some, lose more", “Think about what you’re really gambling with” etc etc"

Interestingly these were basically the same as most of the agencies were doing as their voluntary code beforehand and they're happy with these lines because it puts all of the fault/blame on the individual rather than the companies themselves and perpetuates the notion that harm from gambling is an individual personal failing and not the result of predatory practices.

which is endorsed by the various state governments who keep increasing turnover tax on bookmakers resulting in worse odds (and faster losses) for punters. The whole industry is cast.

For the record real degenerates prefer "No gamble, no future".

Yeah I see that Cram but still think it's more effective than the simple "gamble responsibly" which had lost all impact

Interesting TAB is running a "playoff" book meaning play-in, whereas Sportsbet's "playoff" book refers to semi-finals.

I like SEM at $5.00 to outperform United on regular season wins with TAB.

And Cotton at $4 for MVP.

I've put a few dollars on each and that'll probably do me I think.

Didn't end up going with the Bullets for "playoffs" eg semi-finals with Sportsbet.

"Yeah I see that Cram but still think it's more effective than the simple "gamble responsibly" which had lost all impact"

I dont think it is more effective. Most convince themselves that they're not the one being talked to and at the end of the day, its still 100% putting any "problem" on the individual not on the predatory business model.

I think we have to be pragmatic and understand the shades of grey with these things, and understand the need to balance the apparent tensions between safeguarding society versus allowing individuals to take responsibility for their actions.

It's a subset of that broader discussion isn't it. Many things are "predatory" or at least can be damaging within society, eg social media for youth, alcohol, drugs, etc. But somewhere along the line, adults also need to be allowed to make choices. So it's about finding the right balance.

All of these types of things- alcohol, fast food, gambling, social media, sugar- etc etc- they're all good, enjoyable, or at least, relatively morally benign when consumed in moderation but dangerous in excess.

Beer companies rely on the people who down a 6-pack every night after a day on the tools. Alcohol wouldn’t be a profitable business if everyone drank in moderation or minimally, would it? So all these corporates- whether SportsBet or Coopers Brewery- have perverse incentives, because their very profitability relies on those with addictive personalities, or those who are damaging themselves with excess consumption. I think we all understand this.

So all of these industries are "predatory business models" broadly understood.

But is the answer to just completely ban alcohol, or fast food, or social media or gambling?

Most would say, clearly not. So the debate always lies within the middle somewhere. What are the reasonable restrictions which include appropriate safeguards and balance the interests of everybody.

Banning all advertising
Banning promo bets and any kind of incentives
remove odds from all sporting related content/websites/telecasts
banning any game that incorporates loot boxes that can be bought with virtual or real currency
national regulation
national self exclusion scheme and criminal liability for those (companies) that don't adhere to it
stop letting industry set the rules
Max limits

just off the top of my head

Oh and completely banning pokies, yes.

If that list were to be implemented, I think 2nd/3rd tier sports like the NBL would be in serious jeopardy.

There's enough corporate money in Australia that AFL and NRL will always garner support. But you take all betting dollars out of sport- including via TV rights- and the cumulative impact would be huge, and would ultimately make things extremely difficult for any other sports, including down to community sport level.

Yeah that's BS. The same nonsense they said about tobacco. And if your business can't survive without gambling, it shouldn't, frankly.

There's a lot more professional sport requiring corporate support than there was in the 80's when tobacco was involved in sponsorship.

I return to a point from a previous post- where do you draw the line? Gambling, alcohol, fast food, if we ban any sponsor whose business model could be seen as "predatory" or having negative societal impacts there won't be anything left.

Maybe a reminder about the banking royal commission should result in banning the banks and financial services corporates too.

We can choose to be ideological about our personal pet-hate industry, or we can seek to be pragmatic and reasonable and understand the world is grey, not black and white.

I choose the latter.

Which of those measures were unreasonable?

Many of them.

Compromises can be found which put some frameworks and safeguards around it, to avoid an open-slather free-for-all.

For example, ban advertising during the game or within 5 minutes before and after tip-off/game end. Remember the old days when you couldn't get through quarter time without an odds update? Terrible for everyone, and constantly putting it in the faces of the addicts.

Stop gambling from being major sponsors with prominent positioning on player guernseys. Sure. Similar compromise.

Banning credit cards from usage with online gambling accounts- good idea. This occurred recently.

But a complete ban on all advertising, all bonus bets, all betting content on any telecast? Too much.

And this is why Australia loses more than any other country. By a long way.

"if you drink this full bottle of expensive whisky and regret it tomorrow, we'll give you a shot of hooch the next time you come in but only if you buy more of the good stuff. Drink responsibly"

I'm surprised there was so much time spent prefacing about consequences of gambling and then the follow up discussion about it, on what’s otherwise intended to be a chat about bball odds.

I think Australia faces the issue worse than other countries in part because of the addictive gene and genetic makeup of many Australian population backgrounds.

When you have addiction you have consequences that can spiral beyond any reality of individual freedom or personal choice. The question then is should we be factoring the true costs into our investment into mental health and other aspects?

It’s one of the hardest things to do - attribute true cost and taxation to account for those true costs. People don’t like to pay up. But that, mixed with appropriate regulatory framework would be the right approach IMO.

I know it’s neither carte blanche free choice nor banishment so it would be universally unpopular by the electorate.

Interesting take KET.

Genetics would no doubt play a role for many but unsure exactly to what extent.