For the amount of people I've seen handing Cairns the spoon, I think they're a sneaky chance at top 6

Sydney 22-6
Perth 18-10
United 17-11
JJ's 16-12
SEM 15-13
Illawarra 13-15

Adelaide 12-16
NZ 12-16
Brisbane 8-20
Cairns 7-21

Champs- Sydney over Perth

Feels harsh placing Cairns last and NZ 8th but someone's gotta be there.

Nice predictions LV, but remember they play 29 games this year!

1. Sydney: most balanced and deepest plus change of coach.
2 Melbourne: still solid need White to fire though.
3 Perth: assuming SF import is good. If get another Usher drop if a stud could rise. Have best player in the league.
4 Southeast Melbourne: Deeper and better balanced.
5 Tasmania: McVeigh was the best Aussie last season and a big loss but culture etc still good enough to make post season.
6 Illawarra: could rise if get import PF right. NBL a tough league if stand pact.
7 Brisbane: have more firepower this year on the perimeter and imports better but Sobey loss underestimated.
8 Adelaide: have the talent just not sure chemistry and stability. If get 3rd import or next star could rise.
9 New Zealand: new coach in league and lack depth. PJC could save them however.
10 Cairns: relying on improvement from Armstrong and Waardenburg. Not sure imports and depth as good.

Awards
MVP: Cotton
MIP: Armstrong
COY: Vickerman
DPOY: Kuol
Next generation: Galloway

First Team: Adams, Cotton, Goulding, Cooks, Magnay
Second Team: PJC, Walton Jr, Doyle, Hurt, Froling

I'll wait till after preseason, certainly think Sydney at present, PJC at breakers playing big minutes could possibly put them in the frame.

29 games!! Woops

Think I need to re-do them anyway. A Forde coached team should win more than 7 games.

NZ very hard to rate. Much depends on Mojave King. Where's he at? And their new coach, a Finnish bloke who's 36 and very new to coaching.

SEM will be bottom 4. poor coaching / average roster depth will let them down. Standard operating procedure for them. First HC to get fired this year.

Adelaide although the circus that happened there, they have an actual coach now can see them being better (altho locals will still hate cause how they treated ninnis - even though hes not a good coach either) ... but is Adelaide still Adelaide regardless?

Cairns will surprise people in a good way 5th-7th spot, Sydney probably in a poor way, still top 4 but wont be a clear #1 like some predict.

Tassie drop a-bit but still finals. Illawarra/NZ to miss finals.

A lot more balanced this year - a lot dependant on injuries cant see a clear top or bottom team.

SEM will be bottom 4. poor coaching / average roster depth will let them down. Standard operating procedure for them. First HC to get fired this year.

Adelaide although the circus that happened there, they have an actual coach now can see them being better (altho locals will still hate cause how they treated ninnis - even though hes not a good coach either) ... but is Adelaide still Adelaide regardless?

Cairns will surprise people in a good way 5th-7th spot, Sydney probably in a poor way, still top 4 but wont be a clear #1 like some predict.

Tassie drop a-bit but still finals. Illawarra/NZ to miss finals.

A lot more balanced this year - a lot dependant on injuries cant see a clear top or bottom team.

I, for one, am not predicting Sydney to be as good as most people think. Cam Oliver is a risk, Jaylen Adams is a liability. Their strength lies withing JG and Cooks, and their bench depth isn't amazing. I think Perth have a chance to be quite decent, as do SEM if they can get their sh!t together. MU and the JJs will be right up there once again, particularly MU who haven't really taken a backward step with their roster compared to last season - the team that were the benchmark all season long. Not sure why people are predicting a demise/downward trend?

Cairns, Adelaide, Illawarra all a strong chance to be a basket case. Brisbane will depend on injuries, but from the outside seem to be slowly fixing their culture, which should have an impact in results sooner rather than later. The question mark for me is how NZB will go...

United have lost a lot of scoring.

JLA has consistently been amongst the highest scoring 5 man in the NBL over the past 4 years (on a points per minute basis). Who replaces his production? Who can United throw the ball to and have a high probability of a score?

White and Lee are good defenders but cumulatively, nowhere near as potent offensively as JLA and Travers (unless White has seriously upped his offensive game and can be that man, and average 16-17 ppg).

They're also the oldest team in the league- by Christmas- CG 36, Delly 34, Loe 33, Ili 32. Clark 34 in March. You would expect some decline amongst that group compared to last season. Compare to Sydney- virtually everyone just reaching their prime or in their prime (26-29- Adams, Cooks, Oliver Kuol, Noi, L’Afa etc) or should be on the upwards curve (Galloway, Toohey).

Don't get me wrong, United has plenty going for it- experience, chemistry, defense, culture- they should win more games than they lose and make the semi-finals. But I'm not convinced they have the pure firepower to win the title.

Interesting that the media predictions agree with my prediction- everyone predicted them for top 6 (one of only 3 teams- Syd and JJs the others) but no one has them winning (Sydney dominated that with 9, with JJ's, Perth and Illawarra getting 1 or 2 votes each)

And depth too I should add- Clark, Loe, Bowen, Cameron, Krebs is a solid 2nd unit

@ Jorge, if SEM spud it up might be better getting rid of Grear and Mitchell, they put teams out there.

It's bizarre that Mitchell is Head of basketball or whatever.

An unconvincing 4 year run as coach, you’d expect they would want a clean break and let the new guy take full control. 12 months later Mitchell came back.

It's not that bizarre Tommy Greer has been running that team as his personal fiefdom from the start hiring and signing all his spud mates. I bet he sacks Kelly during the season and puts Mackinnon in and when they move on from him Mitchell will probably be slotted back in. That's why they've always been a mediocre team.

Something that is flying under the radar is that Craig Sword is a huge chance to be defensive player of the year as well as at all 2nd team level. His scoring contribution and shut down of superstar guards will go a long way to offset McVeighs loss in scoring output. His addition prior to McVeighs 2 way contract is why many thought the JJs were a clear favourite for NBL 2025. Albeit the Kings have certainly added undisputed talent since then and might have proved ultimate favourites regardless. The end of October in terms of NBA waivers and rosters may have a huge impact on the final makeup of the JJs roster.

If Adelaide can score another import 3/4, Davis is the PG they need, and Martin is as good as previous stint, then that is a starting 5 as good as any, surely? Sometimes having less depth can shorten the rotation in a positive way. Have to rely on Marshall and Mayen developing nicely, and keep forgetting we still have Dech and Cadee. Agree though, hard to say with all that's gone on with coaching and culture.

Sydney look pretty solid, but maybe lacking a bit relying on Oliver and a rookie back up 5? Can they orchestrate another import too maybe?

Cats could use another 3-4 as well, they need another rebounder.

If JR gives him the minutes (the one he has been promised, dunno how with Pepper playing the same spot!!!) Benny Henshall should have a breakout year!

I'm not sold on SEM, their 2 new imports, especially Matthew Hurt, won't play a lick of defence. Will be a Brady Manek 2.0 I think. Always the risk when you bring in guys who have only played in the G-League.

Tassie/United have lost talent but are still good enough to contend, locks for top 6 for me.

Cairns underrated for mine. Brisbane favourites for the wooden spoon.

Adelaide/Illawarra will depend a lot on coaching. I trust Illawarra more.

Everyone thought Sydney was a lock for top spot last year as well. I'm concerned about their lack of big man depth. We saw how poorly Goorj coaches small ball at the 2023 World Cup.

Perth almost have the same team as last year (which finished 2nd), yet have upgraded C. Webster -> Pepper, Sarr -> Alamansa (dark horse for Next Gen imo), Usher -> new import. Expect top 4 for them.

NZ similar to last year I think, maybe sneak in for a play-in spot but have significantly downgraded Cheatham and Lamb.

Hurt is a big lad, probably play a fair bit five, the next star could push for time as well. As was said it's August so really to early but kings under Goorj will be good and SEM will improve a lot at an early guess.

I am not smart enough to predict the whole league but I think the loss of McVeigh and Roman will make a finals swing difficult for the JJs. I expect Sydney to be very strong and I think Cooks is a Franchise level player who moves the needle for them.

I don't rate Creek as a #1 option on a top-4 team, but his loss is big for SEM. They are going to have some mins/rotations to sort out in the backcourt too with Sobey and the imports, and my guess is there's a chance Sobey/Walton might be water/oil if Sobey hasn't been brought in with an accurate/honest understanding of what his role probably needs to be at this stage of his career. If Wieskamp/Hurt are solid this could be a top-4 contender, but I'm pessimistic until we see how it comes together on the court. Hunter I feel has another level he can get to in this league, and having him play in Aus vs money in Asia/Europe was a win for SEM.

Cairns/Brisbane, flip a coin for bottom of the ladder IMO.

Breakers could end up being better than most expect or much worse depending on how the change in coach and shuffle of the roster goes. Lots of unknowns re: the other imports and additions of guys like King and even Bolden (who played a very static role in Sydney but might be capable of a lot more).

Adelaide will probably be better than the owners deserve, but just outside the top 4 for me - somewhere in the 5-8 range.

Illawarra have a lot riding on their remaining import selection.

Losing McVeigh is huge for Tassie, but they are in my top 4 with Sydney-United-Tassie-Perth in some sort of order. United probably at #4 as it feels like a slight step-back year for them even with White coming in, unless he is MVP-calibre (which is possible).

Something like:

1 - Tassie
2 - Sydney
3 - Perth
4 - United
5 - SEM
6 - ADL
7 - Illawarra
8 - NZ Breakers
9 - Brisbane
10 - Cairns

AussiePride, as much we might have hoped Reuben would see meaningful court time at the JJs, that was not going to happen in NBL2025. He was going to have to do his dues and earn his stripes like Sean Macdonald did in 2022. To his credit he was on board about that.

I think the loss of McVeigh will be huge for Tassie and assuming he doesn't come back during the season I think they'll drop back a fair bit. I just can't see the rest of them picking up all of his slack.

1. Sydney
2. Perth
2. Illawarra
4. Melbourne
5. SE Melbourne
6. Adelaide

7. Tasmania
8. New Zealand
9. Brisbane
10. Cairns

Imo if McVeigh doesn't get a go over there on his two way contract he could be back reasonably soon, his money in the US would be ok, but less than his marquee money from JJs. He is 28 and like Cooks got to the nba but didn’t last, still on his resume. Again imo I think that’s why Terangi was brought in so he can step aside if it goes that way and not cost much.

Pretty exciting to see the amount of different predictions, this could be a cracking season of NBL

That's what I said at the time Te Rangi was signed. I highly doubt McVeigh was on more at Tassie than a two-way deal in the NBA, $550k USD.

Most people seem to have 4 groups

Of course there are variations here and there but generally, based on posts here and media predictions:

Sydney 1st

JJs/UTD/Perth 2/3/4 in some order

Ill, SEM, NZ Ade 5-8 in some order

Cairns and Brisbane 9/10 in some order.

I thought that two way contracts were on games played in nba and it wasn't that much anymore.

I guess you trust what's proven

Goorjian and Sydney's main guys are proven

Perth, United and JJs are teams with coaches in their 3rd, 8th and 4th seasons respectively, they made semi-finals last season and bringing back most of their rosters

The "middle 4" have talent but bigger ambiguity and question marks.

Cairns and Brisbane look slightly light on for talent and depth.

Although the longer I ponder NZs roster the more I realise much hinges on Mojave King. Anyone wanna take a guess on how he'll go?

How many teams are better or worse than last year?

Would say
Melbourne, New Zealand and Tasmania are worse.
South East Melbourne and Sydney better.
Adelaide, Brisbane and Cairns similar.
Illawarra and Perth could be better or worse depending on third import.

Perth are replacing Usher - even if their new import isn't good, I don't think that's much of a downgrade. Probably an upgrade overall IMO but I'm biased.

Depends on imports.

Patrick Miller was a gun for Cairns and Tahj McCall was pretty handy.

Rob Edwards is the new go-to guy, he's the one (along with Armstrong) who will have the ball in his hands with the game on the line. How will they go? Who knows.

Perth's final spot is an Usher replacement. If they get a (prime) Casey Prather or playoff Terrico White, watch out. If they get a spud they won't get near the title you'd think.

Can't wait to see all these guys at the Blitz.

As for the rest

Hurt and Wieskamp have been discussed a lot. They should be good scoring options but their D will be crucial to SEM's title aspirations.

Mooney is PJC's new running mate. Big shoes replacing Lamb etc. Gillespie has played for some big European clubs, in Euroleague. Looks a Marcus Lee, Derek Pardon defensive type.

Martin also played Euroleague since NBL and if he's All-NBL level it goes a long way to putting Adelaide in top 4/6. Davis has solid G-League numbers but quite young in a league full of more experienced guards. Is he the next Scottie Wilbekin? 36ers fans hoping so.

Cook and Batemon don't have quite the same pedigree but Brisbane needs them to be very good. Or needs huge step up from their young Aussie bigs. If they get neither they're looking at bottom 2 without doubt.

Another interesting question- what does each team need to have achieved by seasons end to have had a 'successful season'. For some teams it will be the championship or nothing, while for others making the play-in tournament would be a sucess.

Going to be even season like afl ,teams have upgraded so at this stage for me.

Tasmania
Sydney

Rest can be anyone.

Looking forward to new season

Sydney will bring in a third import. Nothing surer than Goorjian will milk every last cent out of owners to get a chip.

Illawarra is a nice smoky

Tatum had them rolling last year.

With Froling, Lee, Swaka Lo Buluk, Hickey and Olbrich all ~25 or under, there's huge potential upside across the group.

Craig sword remember the name people absolute beast of a defender will be a nightmare and shot 40% from the arc last g league season a huge upgrade for the jack jumpers in the 3rd import spot over Marcus lee people are crazy writing of the jack jumpers I think there top 4 with current roster if McVeigh comes back during the season at some point there definitely a contender

It's going to be close and luck and injuries could come into play with sides with poor depth.

Kings, got it all, money, coaching, excellent quality and depth, Toohey looking like a star.
Cats, as above, coach not as experienced at top level but still very solid out fit. Got Cotton, he gets you wins on his own.
JJs, coach = genius, very good side, McVeigh is a loss and not replaced properly, he could be back, Sword might step up.
Hawks, very good team, Olbrich makes them next level, depth slightly less.
Phoenix, Kelly seems to have a lot more influence in team selections, again depth a little weak and still have a player or two that can go iso to much.
United, I can’t believe I haven’t got them in top six, age and injuries could hurt them, Illi, White and CG43 still excellent, Delly, Clarke, just not as good on bench or 5 spot. Certainly a chance of top six.
Bullets, like united can make top six, I like what they have done, Prather, Adel, Harrison looking great. Got Rocco and some depth.
Sixers, looking a lot better, got some real quality, but total lack of depth, injuries could hurt big time.
Breakers, first season nbl coach, he seems to know his stuff, PJC is a gun , some solid players but some average as well, home court is an advantage and travel is a plus.
Cairns, total budget team, injuries already, got a few commentary favourites, Groves looks good, Forde will get everything he can out of them but just don’t see that good a season.

Imo the top eight are all a chance, SEM could be the surprise packet. Looking like a great season coming up.

I actually had United in sixth.

These are my final predictions on the eve of the season.

Injuries will probably wreck some teams. Happens every year. NZ and SEM last year. United the year before that. And teams will have varying abilities to cover for injuries, depending on who goes down. We're already seeing Cairns and Tassie missing multiple players for round 1. But assuming a full bill of health or a relatively even playing field over the season, this is how I see things playing out:

Semi-finalists:
Sydney- Champions
Perth- Runner-up
Illawarra- Semi-finalist
United- Semi-finalist

Play-in losers:
JJs
SEM

Bottom 4:
Adelaide
NZ
Brisbane
Cairns

All-NBL 1st team: Cotton (MVP), Walton Jr, Doyle, Oliver, Froling
All-NBL 2nd team: PJC, CG43, White, Cooks, Magnay (DPOY)

6th man of the year: Clark
Coach of the year: Tatum

I'm still pretty much sticking to my earlier pick below. If I were to change I'd say SEM swap with melbourne and hawks with JJs


Sydney
Melbourne
SEM
Perth
JJs

Hawks
Sixers
NZ
Brizzie
Cairns