@ Bored
I would agree with you there.
Realistically the Flames are the only 5th-to-8th team in my eyes with a line-up that is good enough to make the GF. And with that game being on neutral territory, it will be a 50/50 contest.
My picks moving forward....
WEEK 1:
Buccs vs Magic
This is the game of the weekend. Buccs have won both this year but the Magic were not disgraced and are in form. They have the league MVP and two of the best 10 players in the comp. The key is Pesava. Without him I feel the Buccs have the offensive advantage. Buccs to get up in a tight one at home.
Wolves vs Tigers
The Tigers have probably surprised many with their 3rd placing this year. Some pundits didn't have them making the finals at all. In Scott, Nelson and Dupree they have the most potent backcourt in the comp. But they're light-on with their bigs, and have no true 3-man. On paper the Wolves team is not much deeper but they have a couple of guns and the home court. Tigers not in the greatest of form coming into the playoffs, and that is why the Wolves will win by 10 to 20 points.
Giants vs Senators
A replay of the same match-up from two weeks ago in Kalgoorlie, when the Giants won by 21 points. The Senators were without Harris and were restricted to 70 points in that contest. The Giants have the 3rd-best defensive record in the comp and the Senators need Harris if they are to have a chance. Despite Withers' scoring punch, they just don't have the depth to cover his loss. Word is he won't play so I'm picking the Giants by double-digits in this one.
Eagles vs Flames
If it wasn't for garbage time starting early in last week's game between the Eagles and Giants, this game would be played in Rocko. However it's not and East Perth have been gifted home court advantage. That said the Flames now have a full line-up and are a better team than their 7th-placing indicates. In fact on paper they are probably among the top three teams in the comp. The Eagles are big but the Flames have the smarts and the personnel to counter that. The Eagles have a history this year of imploding when things don't go their way, and I can see that happening this week and the Flames strolling to an easy win.
WEEK 2:
Tigers vs Flames - Thursday 1st August
Tigers will be smarting from their loss the Wolves the week before, but will be at home for this one. However the 35min drive for the Flames won't be too onerous. Interestingly the Tigers have won both games against Rockingham this year, and by a combined 48 points!!! However Tigers were at full strength in both games while the Flames were missing starters in both. It is a different story this time around - the Tigers come into the playoffs not in the best of form, while the Flames are the opposite. Flames with too many offensive options will get the job done.
Magic vs Giants - Friday 2nd August
The Magic coming off a loss to the Buccs up in Gero, while the Giants travel to Mandurah following a low scoring win over the Senators in Kalgoorlie. Giants have struggled against the Magic this year, losing both times. This is a Friday night game, which is tough for the Giants. Does everyone have to get the day off work?? Giants have found it hard to contain Durr this year and I feel he will be the difference (not Murray). Magic by 10.
Buccs vs Flames - Sunday 4th August
The Buccs back at home for a spot in the GF, and after an 8-day break. Conversely the Flames head up to Gero for their 3rd away playoffs game in 8 days. I guess that is the advantage of finishing 1st, as opposed to 7th for the Flames. This is going to be a terrific contest but my pick is that the Flames will run out of puff down the stretch. Buccs by 12 in front of 1500 load and intimidating home fans.
Wolves vs Magic - Sunday 4th August
These two teams have only met once this year, which resulted in a 45-point win to the Wolves. Yes you read that correct - 45 points. But it was back in April, it was at Joondalup, and the Magic did not have Murray and Pesava. Things are completely different now, and that game cannot be used as any type of reference point for this Prelim Final. Murray vs Wade will be a good contest, but like a lot of teams, the Wolves don't have a true centre to contain Durr. And like with their game two days earlier versus the Giants, Durr will be the x-factor in this one. Magic is a thriller, by 4 points.
WEEK 3 - GRAND FINAL
Buccs vs Magic
A repeat of the qualifying final from two weeks earlier. And with the Magic knowing they are 0-3 against the Buccs this year. But an incentive for the boys from the Peel is that they will be looking for their first ever championship, in their 35th season. In fact this will be their first ever Grand Final appearance. But also in the back of their minds will be their women's team's awful 0-6 record in Grand Finals. Will it become 0-7 overall as a club? Unfortunately I think it will. Buccs to repeat with an 8-point win.