Bullets or Hawks

Gotta be Jackjumpers right? They play hard got Doyle back for this season have Lee upfront and a bunch of bench scoring, can easily see them making the 4 let alone the 6.

I'm a Taipans supporter, so hopeful that Forde can work his magic again with a promising young team.

JJ's being second last in betting seems way overs.

If JJs are second last in the betting, it's ridiculous. On their 1st two seasons making top four is a given, so not a surprise imo.
At a total guess, which I’m very bad at, I’ll go Brisbane.

I'm thinking JJ's or Cairns because I rate Forde and Roth's coaching. You know they can coach well, unlike some of the others who are unknowns, and CJ hasn't impressed in his first 2 years

If the hawks can click early in the season I reckon they have a deep enough squad to go far.

How are the Hawks looking? I've never been convinced that Tyler Harvey is going to get them over the line.

Hawks

Clark was underwhelming at the Blitz, but on paper him, Harvey and Robinson is a strong import trio and they've got a solid group of Aussies behind them

If Clark and Robinson contribute strongly and if Olbrich can continue his Blitz form- or if Froling can take the next step- they could indeed be the sleeper

The Hawks do appear to have upgraded their roster from last season. Robinson returning from injury should be an upgrade on Siva, Gary Clark played with a number of NBA teams should be an upgrade on Frazier.

Then they've signed a Next Star American AJ Johnson who is touted as a potential lottery pick next year, the Asian guy they signed from the G-League is meant to be a gun shooter and showed that in one of their Blitz games and former 36ers DP Lachlan Olbrich fresh out of college was balling out at the Blitz. I don't rate Harvey either but they look like they should be a potential Top 6 team this season.

It's hard to judge a team's trajectory from the Blitz as we saw with the 36ers winning the Blitz the last two years in a row and failing to make the playoffs both years, we finished 8th last year. Generally speaking the good teams play kids and don't care about wining Blitz games and the crap teams go all out to try and impress their fanbase and boost membership sales. Melb United won the Blitz this year.

Sydney's form however looked a bit concerning. All over the place Bolden not up to it yet and Valentine struggling a bit. Adams also struggled after losing his mojo in Euroleague & China last season, perhaps his bubble has burst. Two years ago he was clearly the best player in the NBL. I think the Kings might come back down to Earth now without Cooks who was so important to them.

NZB, Tassie and Perth are my Top 3, United a chance to finish in the Top 4 but they're going to be missing their bast player JLA for the first 10-12 games of the season which will likely hurt how high they finish up the ladder. Perhaps battling Sydney for Top 4 and Illawarra to round out the Top 6.

The other four teams SEM, Cairns, Brisbane and Adelaide just making up the numbers. The 36ers almost look dead certs to finish bottom and who knows what the hell they're doing with Franklin they still haven't released him yet but held him out of the last Blitz game so something is going on.

I suspect PR wise the Sixers are probably waiting to secure his replacement and then announce both that signing and Franklin's release at the same time, whenever that is going to be. I never forget this owner waiting to announce the release of Ronald Roberts just a couple of hours before tip-off of our opening game of the season at home, no doubt so as to not adversely effect attendance. Maybe he will pull that same stunt on Sunday before the opening home game.

36ers... asleep at the wheel since 2018… we are allstar sleepers!

Our car doesn't even have a steering wheel, we forgot to put one back on after 2018.

Does anyone know what happened with Adams last season?

Very underwhelming numbers but presumably injury played a role somewhere?

The bookies have Sydney as clear favourites and SEM as 5th favourite. I'd be tipping SEM to miss the 6, and Sydney doesn't deserve clear favouritism over United or Perth. Not with moderate starts from Valentine and Bolden, and a coach who's an international newbie.

In fact Sydney doesn't deserve clear favouritism over United, Perth or New Zealand in my view

"United a chance to finish in the Top 4..... Perhaps battling Sydney for Top 4 and Illawarra to round out the Top 6."

LOL.

Zodiac's ongoing saltiness towards United is one of the reasons I remain on this forum

Why would JJs be a sleeper team? I feel like they deserve to be considered as genuine title contenders now.

In the OP I implied that a sleeper is anyone outside the main 4 favourites

You could come up with a more precise definition if you like

But I'm guessing if you polled basketball fans for a GF prediction, 95% of responses would include a match-up between 2 of the 4 favourites. So anyone outside that would be unexpected.

LV, you do this every pre-season hype Melb United up into the stratosphere and when they end up not winning it rack of a laundry list of injuries and bad refs calls that stymied their otherwise perfect season.

Remember last year with your repeated predictions Rayjon Tucker was the MVP favourite? Halfway through the season Vickerman was bringing him off the bench for United.

Just relax.

United finished top 4 for 5 seasons in a row under Vickerman and only injuries stopped that streak continuing - last year they were 10-3 in Ili's 13 games.

Hukporti missed the entire season, Ili missed 15 games, Peatling missed 10, Humphries 5. And they still finished one game outside top 4! (United went 15-13 and Tassie were 16-12 in 4th)

Why would anyone say they’re "a chance to finish top 4". They should be considered locks unless there’s a compelling reason otherwise.

FWIW Tucker ended up being arguably United's best player last season after an unconvincing start (following several other big name imports under Vickerman who have started unconvincingly before finding their groove later in the season- Trimble, Hopson, DJ Kennedy amongst them). CG43 made All-NBL 2nd team ahead of him, but I rated Tucker's season right alongside CG's by the end.

Why would anyone say they're "a chance to finish top 4". They should be considered locks unless there’s a compelling reason otherwise.

It's all good mate, if I supported a club like Adelaide I'd be salty at the last team who beat them when they were half-decent too

And no, I don't remember predicting Tucker would win MVP? Maybe I did?

He certainly deserved to be one of the favourites and finished definitely top 12 or 14, many would say top 7 or 8 players in the league, not in the MVP convo but not a bad season

JJs look like they are a threat to finish the regular season at #1 and the clear sleeper pick for me. Bullets look like a different team so far and the Hawks also have a high ceiling.

United, Wildcats, JJs look like the 3 best teams for me so far. Sixers least impressive and lowest ceiling, but everyone else sort of in the mix from there. Should be a very competitive season.

[. I gave the reason why I don't think they are and you, in typical LV fashion, chose to ignore that and still are.]

Oh you're welcome to your opinion/ prediction, I just find it hilarious that one poster in this forum won't pick United top 4, and I could've guessed who without a moments thought ;-)

Hukporti and Loe is still a stronger 5 man combo than several teams have I reckon (if not most). JLA missing 9 or 10 games just gives Hukporti an opportunity to boost his NBA prospects. I'm excited seeing how he goes, I already rate him as an NBL starter and Loe a capable back-up coming off NZNBL MVP. Good floor spacer

zodiac why aren't you hot on cairns they look good

Cairns went 1-3 across their four pre-season games including a 30 point spanking by the Bullets. They've lost a lot of talent from last season including Pinder, Hogg, Majok Deng and even Ben Ayre and have brought in four guys fresh out of college.

It could pan out for them but I just think there's too many question marks there especially with all those new guys that have never played at a pro level before.

" In the OP I implied that a sleeper is anyone outside the main 4 favourites

You could come up with a more precise definition if you like

But I'm guessing if you polled basketball fans for a GF prediction, 95% of responses would include a match-up between 2 of the 4 favourites. So anyone outside that would be unexpected."

I mean it's your thread so whatever you want.

But I don’t think a sleeper is “anyone outside the top 4”. I actually prefer what you *did* imply and that’s a team that pops up out of nowhere.

Jack Jumpers if successful is not a team that has “pops up out of nowhere”. First year definitely. Now? Hell no. They’d just be continuing a stellar start with a coach that’s got a super reputation.

I also don’t think you’d get anywhere close to 90% of people saying teams out of your top 4 would be unexpected given the balance.

IMO the “unexpected” teams that we don’t expect to be a threat, that would popup as a surprise would be Cairns *maybe at a stretch*, Brisbane, Hawks definitely, 36ers absolutely would be a shock.

" It's all good mate, if I supported a club like Adelaide I'd be salty at the last team who beat them when they were half-decent too"

He's just pointing out you’re a big fan of creating your conclusion and doing mental gymnastics to work it through. It’s just standard LV operating procedure whether it be basketball, politics or otherwise.

It’s fine we are all used to it here, no saltiness- relax.

1) Perth
2) Sydney
3) Melbourne
4/5) NZ/Tasmania (Same Record)
6) Brisbane

[creating your conclusion and doing mental gymnastics to work it through.]

And what mental gymnastics are those? I just pointed out history suggests you should assume United makes top 4.

Injuries can happen (And arguably a greater risk to United with 5 players in their 30s), but if Vickermans at the helm with a strong roster, nobody will pick United to miss the 4. Unless their name is Salty Zodiac.

[I actually prefer what you *did* imply and that's a team that pops up out of nowhere.]

My OP wasn't super precise, it's an internet forum not client advice

From my perspective it's difficult seeing anyone other than United, Perth, NZ or Sydney in the GF. Those look like clearly the top 4 teams. But history suggests there's a real chance it happens. Hence it looks "unexpected" right now but it won't *actually* be unexpected if/ when it happens. I'm interested in who people think it could be. Hence this thread.

"My OP wasn't super precise, it's an internet forum not client advice"

Make up your mind man.

I follow your OP which says “someone pops up out of nowhere and challenges.”

Then you decide to be super precise and say that's not what you mean:

“In the OP I implied that a sleeper is anyone outside the main 4 favourites”.....

And now you’re back to *not* being super precise?

You’re about as unclear as someone can possibly be, you’re a living contradiction.

"I'm interested in who people think it could be. Hence this thread."

You're interested in telling people the answer by the sounds of it.

“I’m not being super precise but this is the approach you take”

[you're a living contradiction]

At this point of the conversation I remember why I prefer conversing with analysts not lawyers.

[You're interested in telling people the answer by the sounds of it.]

Oh yeah, that's why I've been forcefully arguing for my tentative suggestion of JJs and Cairns which I offered several posts after my OP

Makes perfect sense, lawyer boy

Hit a nerve I see

Adelaide should quit until they can move McCarron off of his deal. Theyre never gonna have a good roster while he's sitting there taking a starting spot and a huge chunk of salary. Piss CJ off as well. Love you for everything you've done CJ but its not working.

Cairns loss to Brisbane was pretty much an NBL1 side and the Blitz was obviously treated very much as practice games as well.

Deng played very limited minutes so not sure he's a huge loss. Ayre was solid off the bench but not irreplicable either and I'd argue Armstrong is looking like a serious upgrade.

Pinder and Hogg obviously big losses but Waardenburg into his second year should continue to improve, while Mennenga and Klintman both look to have serious potential. Miller should at least cancel out the loss of Scott. Roberts will be interesting to watch and see how he develops.

Maybe I've got the rose coloured glasses on, but I'm reasonably confident of a good season. TBH my biggest concern is how much the US trip for NBA trial games will effect them - it certainly didn't do Adelaide any favours last year.

Some of the NBL overtime comments very relevant to this thread

- Santa predicted Bullets make the Semi Finals

- Cam Luke predicted United don't lose back to back games after JLA returns. But he pointed out this isnt necessarily a title tip- they could lose games 1, 3 and 5 of a GF series

- When Copes asked Santa who would NOT make the top 4 he didn't offer any comment in response, and what Cam Luke asked who would win UTD vs SEM- Santa again offered no comment. Does Santa secretly not rate United, is he in agreeance with Salty Zodiac?

Interesting on the Bullets, Santa predicted Sobey would have a big season with Scott and Norton being facilitators who will get Sobey to his best spots at the 2. Big call, Sobey is 33 and a guy who's in gradual decline in my mind. At his peak he relied on athleticism but his shooting and fundamentals aren't enough to keep him elite into his mid 30's

But if he can wind back the clock and play like prime Sobey then with the depth the Bullets now have, perhaps they can indeed challenge

Essentially to play Semi finals you need a minimum of one guy at All-NBL 1st or 2nd team level.

You look at the top teams and there's clear candidates for this. There's 3 or 4 guys who either already have made All-NBL teams in the past season or two (Adams, Hogg, JLA, CG43, Delly, Cotton, Pinder etc etc) or players who clearly have that potential (Valentine, Bolden, Travers, Ili, Usher, WMW, PJC, Cheatham etc)

Smith has looked good for the Bullets. A sniper from deep. But personally I think Sobey and Baynes are past the point of being All-NBL level players. Scott is a solid, dependable import.

So who are the guys who will carry the Bullets to their wins and play a whole season at All-NBL level? Maybe Smith. Maybe Sobey or Baynes get back to their best.

Star power is one of the things I look at when considering probability of really contending. A solid team can get you to mid-table or even winning more than you lose, but to really contend for a title you need some guys at that All-NBL level