Exactly right EC, i believe honestly we overperformed early in the season. Dont get me wrong credit must go to the coaching staff and ofcourse the players, but deep down did anyone expect top spot to last? With the lineups of Melbourne and Sydney. We will still finish solidly and are still championship contenders if things go our way. (esp. a healthy brett maher)

I think the concern is that besides the easybeats at home before this road trip, there've been three straight losses where the margin has been 20 for much of the game and where we've not looked competitive. The Maher illness is one excuse but he's said himself that he felt fine prior to the last game.

We're apparently getting killed by playing weak team defense.

I don't think anyone's calling it doom and gloom, just commenting on what's going on. I tipped us to lose both games so I wasn't surprised. I think the game on Wednesday could go either way as well - it's a game that could well define the rest of the Crocs season.

What has been disappointing about the three most recent road losses has been the team lack of competitiveness. Sure we are going to lose a few, but the manner in which you lose them can say a lot too.

Other than a flogging of NZ in NZ, and a couple of games at home where we put it in cruise control after quarter time (to win by about ten) we have not scored any confident wins. Even the games where we put it in cruise control do not say too much for our form, a better team would have converted early leads into big wins.

I agree that the team has overperformed over the first third of the season, I predicted that the team would finish in fourth or fifth this season. But the six close games that all went our way have contributed to our current standing.

On the bright side, we are 4 games clear of fourth place (which is a very healthy buffer) and a 50% win record from here will see us around the 20 win mark from last season.

But I disagree with EC that it gets any easier from here - we have already played the bottom sides away: NZ, Crocs and West Sydney. It only gets harder on the road from here. Check out Round 17 for example where we take on the Tigers in Melb (where we have not won in 7 attempts) followed by Sydney away two days later.

I predict we will finish third, and will hopefully this year win our home knockout final. But beat a team like Sydney 3 times? Not likely, even if the team hits outstanding form all at the same time.

C'mon, Dusty with 1 rebound - now that's scary!

XY, where you say "we have not scored any confident wins", I take it you mean the games where the winning margin was only 1 or 2 points. You're right that they weren't confident wins score wise if you look at them as inividual games, but the confidence about those wins comes from the continual consistency in achieving them. A win is a win and to have consistently come up with the win is encouraging. I don't look at those games as being games where they could have performed better to get a more convincing win, I look at it as the team having total control of the game to ensure it went their way.

A game decided on a charge call that could've gone either way, or winning when the opposition missed a final shot isn't having "total control of the game to ensure it went their way"! They're just close, lucky finishes. Undoubtedly there's skill involved, but it's not the finish of a team in total control. If a ref called that a blocking foul, or if Cattalini made the final bucket, the result would be switched in either case.

Here's hoping that we can hold off the Crocs and then beat the Pirates on the road, but both games could well be very difficult.

Practically 6 times in a row? A lot of what ifs to go our way.

Not saying there isn't a skill involved in winning the close ones. But as clutch as Maher and Dusty and Farley are, they are not going to hit them all. Even the king of clutch, MJ, did not hit every game winning shot he ever took (he missed a number of crucial ones to lose finals in 1995 for instance).

So yes, there is definitely an element of luck involved in close wins. Two of the six were won based on controvertial (even if correct) calls going our way.

The Melbourne game involved 3 turnovers in the last minute. If Melbourne had used some smarts, there is no way they would have lost that game. Sixers did not win that game - the tigers lost it.

I agree, a lot of what ifs did fall our way. The law of averages says that will not continue. Expecially if we keep getting into the situation where we are 4 points down with 3 minutes to go. Even assuming we are the best clutch team in the comp (arguable at best), we would be lucky to win from that position 3 out of 5 games.