Perth only got in because Sydney threw a dead rubber. Their defense and rebounding aren't championship worthy.

They managed to scrape by SEM, who have a sub standard coach and a history of choking the big moments.

Now they might even beat Cairns, who are missing their best player.

But make no mistake, they're pretenders. And they were lucky to make top 6 in a 10 team league.

Perth only got in because Sydney threw a dead rubber.

Delicious

Poor LV always making a fool out of himself. Perth has beaten Sydney twice inarow. Did they also throw the other game to? Lol . This drop kick is priceless

They rested Cooks on the Friday so they could be full strength for Sunday, the owner flew over specifically to gloat about knocking Perth out...

If LV thinks it is easy for the Wildcats to shoot 40 points in a qtr against a team with Creek, Williams, Brown, Terangi are just pretenders, he, himself, is more of a pretender (that he thinks the wildcats did it by fluke).

He basically ignores Cotton has that ability to open up for the other guys once he does get going - Manek pointed that out clearly during in his after game interview.

Hey LV have you seen
this?

They rested Cooks on the Friday so they could be full strength for Sunday

Perth also bear Sydney just a few weeks earlier when Sydney, cairns and Breakers were all fighting for the top spot. What about that game?

LV salty his United team didnt make it...

Pretty weird definition of 'full strength' given they rested their NBL First Team point guard.

I foreshadowed these results before they occurred. Before the final round started, I told you all Perth would make it, if you were paying attention

Happens in sport all the time. Top sides routinely lose dead rubbers with nothing to play for.

Examples from AFL- Geelong 2007, Saints 2009, Collingwood 2010, Collingwood 2011, Sydney 2014, Freo 2015, Adelaide 2017. All minor premiers who lost in the final round of the regular season.

Throw 2018 Richmond in there too- 18-4 Richmond held on to win by 3 points against the 8-14 Dogs.

In fact in 2009 it happened with 1st and 2nd essentially decided two thirds of the way through the season, both teams (St Kilda and Geelong) losing a bunch of games on the way home

Kings rested Walton with his "wrist injury" and rested Cooks in the 4th quarter while the other starters played on.

Sure, Cats beat Kings a few weeks ago. I'm not suggesting Cats are incapable of beating the Kings in Perth

But that was the Kings first double digit loss for the season. You think, if Sydney played their best team and had something worth playing for, you think they lose by 11+? Of course not.

If Sydney were 18-9 instead of 19-8 coming in with 0.5% lower percentage, and had to win to secure top spot over New Zealand, you think Perth beats them by 11+? Sporting history and common sense say a resounding no.

[Before the final round started, I told you all Perth would make it, if you were paying attention]

And after United unexpectedly won by 9, I posted that it would be close since I was tipping Perth by around 10

I'm not sure whether Sydney really cared who they play in the playoffs. Whether United or Perth made it.

But certainly, a Perth win was always on the cards. Top teams often lose in the final round when they have nothing to play for. The AFL examples prove that. Perth had 100* more motivation to win. Psychology predicted a Perth win, and win they did.

See here

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/50832-united-breakers-may-not-go-ahead/#p910815

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/50862-wildcats-v-taipans-3-2/#p910971

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/50869-mathemagicianE28099s-united-vs-adelaide/#p911087

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/50872-united-v-36ers-5-2/#p911159

You could see the Perth win coming a mile away

Not sure what the odds were, but Perth should've been $1.30 favourite in that game against Sydney

I'm not upset about United- as I also said on here many times, I suspect Ili was on ice after the latest concussion regardless of how he was feeling. Meaning United (like Perth) weren't a legitimate chance of a title regardless of whether they made the play-in

But let's not kid ourselves, Perth were lucky to get in. Healthy all year, and got a gift in the final round, with their opponent playing a dead rubber and more worried about staying healthy for playoffs than winning a basketball game

As always LV can't help himself and falls for the clickbait hook, line and sinker.

Not falling for anything

It's a genuinely interesting topic from a performance and psychology perspective

In writing that post, I surprised myself by remembering exactly how many AFL examples there are. I knew it had happened quite a few times, but it's actually happened the vast majority of times.

Ie most of the time when there's a clear minor premier heading into the final round, they lose the game. Or in Richmond 2018's case, win but badly underperform relative to their season

The majority in the last 15-20 years anyway, which is a small but not negligible sample size

The United are out. Accept it and move on

Sydney threw a dead rubber.

Xavier Cook said today Kings are the best team in the NBL. They are not phased by Wildcats. Bring them on he says.

His confidence lies in that rationale that Dalton Jnr is the best guard in the NBL. His absence against the Wildcats obviously caused their demise.

I think he is right up to a point. However, this is the 'play off' time, players step up. Very good example : JJ’s aggressiveness that won them the game. Another example is Cotton and Norton stepped up big time.

Sydney has been tremendous when the boys start shooting the daylights out of their oppositions. That would have been the case too against Wildcats but as I said above, this is the play offs. People rise to the occasion, hence to count on regular Nbl rounds as a forecast of what’s to come is baloney. Vasilejevic took too many 3-pt shots when he was not in position (denied very well by Wildcats). This is the reason why I believe Cook is underestimating the play offs. But of course, he has a right to believe that they will win, and hopefully it does not detriment his team, being overconfident.

I am glad Wildcats is saying they will focus on the cairns game ahead, treating their opponents with respect. I am feeling good that Norton, Manek and Travers are firing. They will cause havoc I am sure. Cook can’t take them for granted.

I'm glad NBL championship-winner Xavier Cooks has you to explain playoffs to him.

Cats got long way to go yet, if they do get to meet the kings, Manek outside shooting could hurt Cooks, he doesn't like defending out there.

Manek is one of Perth's absolute keys to opening up the floor. Guys like Hogg, Cooks, Creek etc want to be in help position ready to rebound, power forwards aren't generally used to guarding guys with a lightning-quick release. You need to be in Manek's shorts before he catches the ball or it's up!

The Sportsbet odds are a fair indication of the relative chances of each team winning

Syd $1.80
NZ $4.00
Tas $6.00
Cairns $8.00
Perth $9.50

No team stands out as either good value, or poor value

The next game is Cairns $1.80 Perth $2.00 which also seems fair. If Pinder was in, that would be more like $1.40 vs $2.90 but alas.

I like a dig at LV more than anyone but also let's not let the truth get in the way of a good story. Walton JNR pulled out in "warm ups" due to injury. No starter for Sydney played more than 28 mins. 4 of Perth's starters played 34 mins +

With 5.31 remaining Cooks left the game for good after playing only 28. Kings 5 for the last 5.31 was DJ, Noi, Bruce, Glover and Simon.

No one with a straight face can say they were trying to win. Least of all cover the spread.

They got guys rest and they got minutes into Glover, Galloway and Noi who will be important come the business end.

As I said, Anyone who believes Sydney cared about any game in round 18 is absolutely one eyed bonkers.

But, conversely, please continue to punch LV's buttons.

Greg hire

Also Majok Majok looking gangster with the shave and polish, if he'd have done this a decade ago he’d be in the NBA by now!

[Put those goalposts back where they were, LV.]

In professional sports, the line between "threw" and "didn't try very hard to win" is mostly semantics

Greg hire

With 5.31 remaining Cooks left the game for good after playing only 28.

No starter for Sydney played more than 28 mins.

4 of Perth's starters played 34 mins +

@ Luuuc,

Thanks for pointing that out so clearly, I didn't have time or patience to do it. One other point, why would Smith and Pongrass fly for five hours across the country to see kings throw the game.
All teams left in finals should study that game, it’s the blue print to beat the kings if you are good enough. Kings still well and truly favourites though.

Lets not forget Bryce scored a measly 7 points in the Sydney game and the cats still won by 12. That says lots about the progress of the rest of the team over the season with things starting to clickedy click.

Anyone who think Sydney's players didn't try hard on the court also needs their head read. As for the Kings coaching staff, they had specific things they were trying to get out of the game, and winning was not high on the priority list.

Two major priorities were a particular key player they wanted to rest, and another they wanted to blow up with a lot of minutes with little rest in case he has to play bigger minutes than usual in a playoff game. They achieved both those things.

Exactly, their goals were something other than what it would've been any other game- ie: winning.

That's what happens in dead rubbers.

Honestly pretty useless thread...

Perfect use case for that meme, though.

Smith and Pongrass were in Adelaide also so they didn't fly 5 hours to see them throw a game the followed the entire round 18 management of their players.

Now Luuuc compare it to the Adelaide game. It's ok, no one is perfect. If you’re resting staters for entire games you’re not really worried about winning or losing. Doesn’t mean you don’t play hard but you really don’t care