Melbourne need to win by 41 to overtake SEM.

The more interesting part is the fight for 6th spot.

Current points difference are
Melbourne +1
Perth 0
Adelaide -42 (and 1 win behind)

Adelaide need to win by 22 to overtake Melbourne plus would need Perth to lose by 20 (or 1 point less for every point Adelaide win by more than 22). Possible but unlikely.

It seems to be a drag race between Melbourne and Perth, with Melbourne having a 1 point lead.

It depends which King's and 36ers sides show up as both games could go either way.

Can't see both games being blowouts big enough to get 36ers through but there's still hope.

SEM points difference is +41

FWIW, in above example Perth actually need to lose by 21 if Adelaide won by 22

Aren't ties decided by points percentages, rather than points differences? TBH, I can’t remember for sure. If it’s percentages, then Melbourne has about 160 fewer points against than both Perth and Adelaide. That would slightly increase the winning margin Adelaide would need.

I don't know but assumed it would go to head to head results if point differences were the same.

My original calls were to avoid ties on points difference.

I haven't looked up head to head results, which might get too hard anyway as there are 2 games involved, particularly if it was a 3 way tie!

The ladder seems to be based on point differences rather than %

Most notably, Breakers in 2nd place are +177, with Cairns 3rd on +79

The tie breaker is overall points percentage.

It's percentage that's used, but looking at % and points difference tells the same tale across a season this size.

Perth with the big advantage today. Playing Sydney who have nothing to play for except momentum, and Buford has already foreshadowed they'll likely rest players again

A team that goes 14-14 should probably have made the top 6. It definitely shows that expanding top 6 wasn't a mistake.

It Adelaide win and don’t make it, they brought it on themselves by getting smacked in more than a couple of games.

Shame the Hawks didn’t manage to scrape more wins, 3-25 looks quite bad. The NBL boffins will want a bit less of a bottom outlier.

Perhaps 6-22/7-21 is what they’d have probably hoped for from a woodenspooner.

This weekend illustrates the wisdom of the play in

Two of the powerhouse clubs playing in front of their home crowds and playing for a playoff berth.

Under the old system, they would've been meaningless dead rubbers.

Adelaide must be regretting the capitulation to Cairns now.

Having said that, got to take into account the nothing to lose advantage as can't say Adelaide would have won last two if playing with pressure.

Would have been more interesting if the Perth game was first
If Perth wins or loses by a small margin, our season is basically over and we'd just be playing to decide if Melbourne or Perth make it
If Sydney goes out and destroys Perth, it'd put us in a position to actually have a chance

The way Perth's been playing, if I were Adelaide I would be hopeful!!

Neither Perth or Adelaide are winning. SEM v United in the first semi.

LV, definitely agree the move to a top 6 is better than a top 4 with 10 teams. Keeping the season alive longer for more teams is a good thing.

Neither Perth or Adelaide are winning. SEM v United in the first semi.

I can't see the Perth Wilcats challenging anyone good in a three or five game series, where as Melbourne and Phoenix close to full strength can, so I'd be happy with that result.

Neither team will be at full strength in the playoffs, so what they can do at full strength is irrelevant.

Wildcats need to win by 11 points.

MEL 2,434 2,424 100.41%

If PER defeat SYD by the minimum required margin of 11 points their percentage will be 100.43% or a less likely 100.42% (dependant on final score).

A ten point win is insufficient as it results in 100.39%