It's really difficult to gauge pre-season as the crap teams usually go harder to try and drum up hope for the season ahead and the teams that will be there at the pointy end usually keeps their cards closer to their chest.

I know the Sixers won the Blitz last year too and finished 7th but this year's team looks seriously legit and even though they look a step above all the other teams they haven't won anything yet and aren't battle tested unlike the Kings which is why I still have them first. I just hope the Sixers bring Randall off of the bench way too much of a chucker he could be a real weapon there rather than a likely hindrance in the starting lineup.

1. Sydney
2, Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Perth
5. Illawarra
6. Melbourne
7. Tasmania
8. SE Melbourne
9. Cairns
10. New Zealand

MVP: Cooks
ROTY: Rupert
DPOTY: Simon
MIP: Adnam
6MOTY: Randall/Dech
COTY: Bruton

First Team: Cotton, Cleveland, T. Johnson, Cooks, Baynes
Second Team: Walton, Tucker, McVeigh, Franks, D. Johnson

First import cut: Dererk Pardon

I think all the usual caveats apply: injuries, covid etc.

36ers fans will be super cautious after last seasons preaseason success and regular season failure.

For Adelaide this time around if Franks and co are healthy all season then they'll be substantially stronger than a 36ers with Humphries injured and two dudish imports. They’re effectively +3 stars and +1 good bench player in Drmic and plus in development of Sotto, Harris, Marshall.

McCarron and Dech could end up playing better with the talent around them too.

I think there’s three groups:

Expect a top 6 spot
Perth - classy organisation has the best player in the league, a good new coach, a better roster and might even see Cotton naturalise (said that last year lol). They aren’t resting the same mistake as last year. They will make a STATEMENT.

Sydney - they still have Cooks and DJ - they will feature.

Melbourne - lots of change, but they’ve got the talent.

Adelaide - year numero 2 for CJ but boy have they recruited. How will they go balance wise? Championship or just.

Brisbane - Keeping Sobey, adding Johnson & Baynes and a good preseason.

Unsure

SEM - Championship or bust - I feel like they should be the higher group but their preseason has been too unhelpful to gauge them.

NZ - I like what they’ve got, they could make a splash and this time with proper home games!

Tasmania - Too well coached to be a disappointment, they’ve lost the X factor import but fans will be bullish. So many other teams have improved so much that it’s just so hard to put them in the other group. If they went top 4, it really wouldn’t surprise.

Trouble
Hawks/Taipans - still will steal wins, but can anyone see them competing top 6?

What a year to expand to top 6 - there’s 8 teams that are essentially as good as each other.

The girls look hungry - LOVE IT!!!

Whoops, wrong thread. D'oh

Perth - classy organisation

"Is it?"

Yes

What are we basing that on?

Perth are an average organisation at best now.

Time will tell before we can judge the new Perth, seasons end we will know.

Sorry, I thought players formed part of an organisation - and that players like Cotton, Wagstaff, Norton bring a continuity of culture and success.

Definition of organisation must be different in WA from the rest of the country.

Story on 7 News tonight at some 36ers fan day thing Cleveland said the Sixers could beat OKC.

Sorry, I thought players formed part of an organisation

Story on 7 News tonight at some 36ers fan day thing Cleveland said the Sixers could beat OKC.

But there's clearly still all element of overlap.

"No overlap at all" is simply not right, and a lot of the playing group will have a prevailing culture brought by those players mentioned - which is very much the point of these predictions.

Some of my thoughts/ramblings before things kick off...

I think the Hukporti injury potentially has a major impact on United's season. I thought the Humphries signing was strange and although it seems like a smart move in hindsight they are going to be hoping he stays healthy and can retain some of his pre-injury form or else it's a massive hole inside. Maybe Okwera is ready for a bigger role (and he's shown some flashes), but I don't think he's there yet. Even outside of the 5 spot, in general I think both Caroline and Tucker are going to need to be big for United if they are going to be a contender, and I wouldn't be shocked if XRM or Tucker are the first imports to go, especially if United feel they need to add some more size. Top 6, shaky for top 3.

Perth too - yes, Cotton is Cotton, but that's never been the problem. I think Rillie will be a good coach, however Manek is no Mooney, and history tells us Webster usually seems to do more harm than good. Travers is also going to need to be an impact player every single night for the Wildcats to be a real contender I feel, which he has not yet shown he can do. They are top 6 and in the top 3 fight though.

I wasn't super impressed by the Kings. Soares looked better than expected and Walton Jnr at worst looks like a solid import PG, but we lost 3 of the best imports in the league and replaced them with "merely" good imports. Locals are going to need to pick up the slack... but there's a lot of slack there, especially with the loss of Adams alone. They'll be top 6, but I don't think top 3.

Adelaide I was impressed with. They seem to have the right balance of guys, and solid imports in Franks and Cleveland. Craig Randall is the X-factor and I think he sets the ceiling for this team. He will either be one of the top scorers in the league or shoot Adelaide out of games from what I saw in preseason, and given the local guards are not consistent scorers it will put more pressure on Cleveland/Franks to carry them on that end of the court. I also think there's a question mark still defensively with Johnson and Sotto - Johnson from everywhere, and Sotto when pulled away from the hoop. With the talents they have I feel Sotto gives them more complementary stuff than DJ does at this stage of his career. Top 3 I think.

Brisbane I'm not sold on - ceiling is high, but heavy reliance on Baynes' health and him being an impact player. They've got some locals who could step up (Gak/Krebs/Harrison), Walker looked better than expected in preseason as a budget import and obvious Tyler Johnson has a high ceiling. If it all clicks they are definitely top 3, but more likely fighting in the 4-8 zone.

Cairns I don't see as being a top 6 team, however I think they are smartly setting their future up this year with some of the guys the youth they've locked in on multi-year deals. I like the approach given their budget vs the big market teams.

Hawks I think will be better than expected and in the top 6 mix, but probably leaning closer to 7 than 6 for me right now. I think either Froling needs to take a step forward and be a consistent offensive player every game, or Mathiang will need to provide more than I think is expected of him.

I hate to count Tassie out, but it's hard to capture lightning in a bottle two years in a row. They were able to make up for the lack of size with incredible effort and over-performance and, I have to say it, some pretty fortuitous luck. I think they've done a good job with the imports, but it's going to take another Hollywood-esque run to make top 6.

SE Melbourne Phoenix it's hard to judge right now for me without seeing their imports healthy and on the court together. Looking at the roster whether they are top 6 or on the outside looking in will entirely come down to the play of their imports.

Maybe my one bold prediction is that the Breakers will be a top 3 side. If Pardon can stay out of foul trouble in particular, I think the Breakers may be sneaky good. I think all 3 imports will be solid, WMW feels like he could have a breakout season, and Rupert not only looks talented but plays smart also and didn't really look to force anything over the Blitz.

So overall:

Top 3ish - Breakers, Wildcats, Adelaide

Fighting for Top 6 - Kings, SEM, Bris, United, Hawks

Outside looking in: Tassie, Cairns

This feels like the most unpredictable season in years.

Perth, United and Sydney have been the three successful mainstays over the past 5 years.

But Adelaide's blitz form, combined with the obvious on-paper talent says they're a serious contender. Brisbane likewise has put a roster together, led by man Mountain Baynes who looks like a boy amongst men, which could see them contending.

And those mainstays have question marks. Sydney have lost most of their title winning team. Perth have a rookie coach and have a roster that looks strong but not stand out. United has lost Hukporti for the year.

SEM didn't suit up Kell in the Blitz and Williams will only get better once he's in shape. You can't count them out, with Creek, Williams and Kell potentially a very potent top 3 and plenty of experience around them.

The import crop looks quality, and any NBL team is only a good import or two from contending. Anything can happen. But I'll go with...

Sydney
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
United
SEM

Tasmania
NZ
Illawarra
Cairns

"No overlap at all" is simply not right, and a lot of the playing group will have a prevailing culture brought by those players mentioned - which is very much the point of these predictions.

In terms of this season and predictions substitute ScoMo for another unproven coach in Rillie, Law for Manek who hasn't looked good in the pre-season so far and Wagstaff going around for another run on top of off-season 3x3 commitments and the decision making doesn't seem to have improved. I hope I'm wrong but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Is this thread serious re Wildcats

Norton, Wagstaff are hard working role players who would set standards at training and have been in Perth many years. Cotton is the best NBL player this century. Majok, Travers are into their 3rd or 4th season now.

That's a fair amount of continuity. The most important members of a sporting organisation are the players.

Manek comes from an elite program. Thomas is an experienced pro. I wouldn't be worried about culture in Perth. They were a Law injury from keeping the 35 yr streak going.

Like every year there are certain players who look absolutely indispensable to their teams. They bring stuff that would be difficult to replace if they were injured and will be particularly crucial to their team's success

Adelaide- McCarron

United- Tucker, CG, Humphries

Sydney- Walton Jr, DJ Vasiljevic, Cooks

Brisbane- Baynes

SEM- Creek, Kell

Those are some that stand out. Other good players I haven't mentioned eg Cotton. Webster can play that role.
Obviously not as well, but with Travers versatility too, Perth can cover most injuries better than most teams.

Likewise Adelaide with Randall and Dec combining to bring many of the attributes Cleveland does, albeit at a lower level.

Sorry, I thought players formed part of an organisation

Top 6

Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Sydney
Perth
Se melb

Last 4 ( not in that order)
Illawarra
New Zealand
Cairns
Tasmania

This season will be tight ,all depends on team performance,imports .
Good quality of imports this year .

On further thoughts I have to add Cotton to my indispensable list. He's probably the one guy who gets there on ability and the difference he makes to his team, regardless of style and fit factors

Thoughts on teams
Perth: While Webster has had his issues before he's been asked to be a sixth man. Think Webster, Manek & Thomas is an upgrade on Frazier, Law and Hodgson. If Rillie can get them to defend better they’ll be there or thereabouts at the business end.

Adelaide: 3 Imports and Drmic are an upgrade on 2 imports and an injured Humphries. Cleveland and Franks are proven and Randall will take the pressure off McCarron. Will be better regardless if the chemistry is there they’re contenders.
McCarron/Randall
Dech/Drmic
Cleveland/Harris/Marshall
Franks/Galloway
Johnson/Sotto/Acouth

Sydney: Should be be good defensively with Simon and Cooks. Need Soares to space the floor otherwise shooting could be an issue. Walton looks good but not as good as Adams. Hunter makes up for the loss of Maker. Will be contenders but not favourites until those question marks are are answered.
Walton Jr/Bruce/Bayles
Vasilijevic/Glover/Makoi
Simon/Galloway
Cooks/Noi
Soares/Hunter
Melbourne: Hukporti is a big loss as cannot replace a next star and means they have to rely of Humphries without a proven back up 5. Will be going a lot smaller when he’s off. Tucker looks like a stud but Rathan-Mayes is a question mark. Vickerman is the most proven coach in the league however. Should be competitive/contend but back with the pack with Hukporti injury.
Ili/Rathan-Mayes
Goulding/Maluach
Tucker/Newley
Caroline/Peatling/Barlow
Humphries/Okwera
Brisbane: Baynes gives them the toughness which they lacked in the past. Their depth looks better and if Johnson comes in motivated and healthy and Sobey remains healthy they’ll be better. Third import is an ace up their sleeve and will decide whether they’re title contenders or playoff contenders.
Johnson/Cadee
Sobey/Krebs
Walker/Stattman
Gak/Mitchell
Baynes/Froling/Harrison
Tasmania: Won’t be underestimated this year and are will drilled. Doyle and Kelly as a duo should be better than Adams and McIntosh. Magnays health is a major question mark and they wouldn’t have made the final if Goulding hasn’t got injured. Playoff contender still.
Magette/Weeks
Doyle/McDaniel
Kelly/Steindl/Kenyon
McVeigh/Bairstow
Krslovic/Magnay
Illawarra: Goorjian and Reath are losses but look to have upgraded import wise however lack depth. Have a final local signing which could shake things up. Middle of the pack at this stage with the losses.
Robinson/Mudronja
Harvey/White/Grida
Swaka Lo Buluk/Coenraad
King/Deng
Froling/Mathiang/Gak
South East Melbourne: Have a ton of injuries right now which will put them behind the eight ball in a competitive league. With the losses of Le’afa and Gliddon the depth isn’t there to cover like in the past. Are Browne and Kell enough to make up for it? Williams is highly credentialed but looked out of shape at the blitz. Pretenders.
Browne/Adnam
Kell/Madut
Broekhoff/Te Rangi
Creek/Anticevich
Williams/Pineau/Smith-Milner
New Zealand: Having home games will make them better than last year. but Delany and Wetzell are big losses and they don’t have any top tier locals. Deep team however. Will need imports to fire to contend.
McDowell-White/Le’afa
Brown/Gliddon
Abercrombie/Rupert/Fotu
Brantley/Vodanovich
Pardon/Loe/Timmins
Cairns: Like the youth movement as the guys they had on the bench last year had little upside compared to this year. Have added shooting but have some question marks on the toughness and rebounding. Can’t see who will create for them as McCall isn’t a scorer and Scott doesn’t look like a scorer.
Scott/Ayre
McCall/Djeric
Kuol/Antonio/Mayen
Hogg/Deng
Pinder/Waardenburg

@basket91

McCall not a scorer?

In his final game of the season, McCall made history as the only NBL player ever in the 40-minute era to have 40+ points and 10+ assists in an unforgettable display against the Bullets, with his 42 points the highest score across the league in 2021-22.

All depends on which team click's at the right time and getting top two will be a priority this season. Pre season doesn’t mean nothing!

Proven team and player’s will be the difference

I think I'll wait for first round to be complete, I had United right up there but loss of Hukporti is significant.

Adelaide has the most depth of any team interms offensive and defensive prowess. If CJ can't get this mob to the semis at the very least he isn’t really a worthy coach

Wow, all of a sudden the season starts in less then a week.

Pretty smart scheduling to have the World Cup serve as the entree to it.

Wouldn't be surprised if 36ers knock off OKC, no Chet or SGA for starters. They'll be relying on pure athleticism and talent to get by.

PG: Giddey
SG: Dort
SF: Bazley
PF: Poku
C: Earl-Robinson

That's a pretty yikes lineup.

NBL has historically swayed between end of sep and mid Oct for start dates I think?

I like week after Grand Final to get into the season

Barring COVID, it's been the weekend after the AFL grand final for the last ten years at least.

My comment wasn't about time of year but the part of the week in which it begins.

The season historically starts on a Thursday or Friday night.

This year it is a Saturday night which I found odd until I realised the final of the women's World Cup is Saturday afternoon. The first NBL game tips off immediately after it. Smart segue.

High quality year coming up with some talent coming into the league with Baynes and impressive imports.

Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Sydney all look very strong.

I expect improvement from the Breakers after the huge challenges they faced last year along with solid years from Illawarra and Cairns.

Not sure what to think of where both Melbourne teams will end up. There is no doubt Melbourne is the home of Australian basketball and success will be expected there.


Can understand most expecting the JJ's to be close to the bottom of the ladder as most predicted last year with the players on the roster. Imports look like they are Jackjumper basketballers and the addition of White, Forsyth and DPS while solid lacks the glamour of other clubs. Magnay will be a welcome addition if he does play. Looking forward to the season again and if culture / buy in from players can end up in success.

" Barring COVID, it's been the weekend after the AFL grand final for the last ten years at least."

2018 GF was 29th Sep; NBL started 11th Oct (not 6th)
2014 GF was 27th Sep; NBL started 10th Oct
2013 GF was 28th Sep; NBL started started 10th Oct

So exactly what I said was sufficient.

By the by, Back in 2005-2009 NBL started between start of Sep (2nd at one point) and 24th Sep

Re JJs - I think there's a strong argument that Doyle and Kelly are collectively better than Adams and McIntosh. Magnay was a non-factor down the stretch last year - any production from him is a bonus at this point. They have no obvious player who should drop off, so therefore they are slightly better than last year.

The optimist in my expects Doyle's ballhandling to unlock a bit more scoring from Magette, and we should see McVeigh featured even more as a scorer with no Adams dominating the ball. It's important to remember that Adams got hot the last 8-10 games but was far from dominant prior to that.

I think you can argue the rest of last year's top four (Kings, United, Hawks) have all gotten worse.

Brisbane and Adelaide are clearly stronger. Perth and SEM...who knows.

Could be a tight year.

It's important to remember that Adams got hot the last 8-10 games but was far from dominant prior to that.

Yep fair enough. I think Adams probably won maybe three games almost singlehandedly, but I also think his style actually made things more difficult for the JJs as well.

Anyway, I'm blatantly trying to be optimistic. I just think the narrative that Adams was all-world and that EVERYTHING went right last year for the JJs is a bit overblown.

From local Tassie reporter Brett Costelloe:

Great news regarding Tasmania JackJumpers Will Magnay ahead of NBL23 via Associate Head Coach Jacob Chance:
"He's on a good path right now. He's probably ahead of where we expected. He's just in a good space. Moving really well, he's around the team and yeah, he's looking really good."

Would not underestimate Doyle, will be more consistent and has smarts along with an all round game.

Do not believe he is a down grade on Adams.


To just put the JJs run through to the Grand Final as due to a injury to Goulding is underselling in the extreme.

It's too early for predictions, wait till round 1 is over.

My nbl tips for round 1:

SEM vs TAS Tassie
ILL vs SYD Illawarra
MEL vs NZB Melbourne
PER vs BNE Perth
Tas vs CNS Tassie

"Exactly and it was that hot form that allowed the JJ's to sneak into the playoffs"

This is re-writing history. Adams was hot and cold, even later in the season. JJ's won games with him hot, and won games with him cold. Their success was driven by much, much more than one player.

His performance in game 3 of the SFs was a massive part of getting the JJs to the GF, and wouldn't have happened without him, but the lead-up to that was far more balanced and spread.

Can someone list the final rosters with all recent signings/injuries (Hukporti, Barlow, Walker, Zhou Qi etc)

Plus maybe mentioning temporary injury replacements would be helpful too (the Trey Kell replacement from Bendigo NBL1, etc)

New predictions after the first 4 games, having seen everyone bar Adelaide and Cairns

Sydney
Perth
Adelaide
SEM
United
Brisbane

Illawarra
NZ
Tasmania
Cairns

There's 3 teams who appear to be legitimate contenders.

1 who it's difficult to rate as 2 new imports have barely played. But very good on paper.

2 who are potential contenders but serious question marks.

4 are making up the numbers. Although Illawarra did impress in spurts, as did 2 of NZs new imports

Sydney, daylight then daylight.

In no particular order
Adelaide
United
Cairns
Perth
NZ
Tasmania

After 2 rounds (sans tonight Cairns vs Perth)

it pretty clearly looks like Sydney and Adelaide are the top 2, with Perth 3rd

And the only other team who might challenge the top 3 is SEM, but it's hard to say until they actually have their team on court

Thats based on current rosters of course. We all know changes are likely, particularly at United if their imports don't improve

Adelaide haven't played yet but yeah interesting results.

Melbourne will make whatever adjustments they need including signing someone new if necessary.

SEM are depleted so hard to gauge but on paper are good.

Brisbane a slow start which is punishing, they’ll want to get into momentum asap.

Tasmania started slow last year and eventually clicked into gear, the results aren’t surprising really. They will be a tough opponent for anyone all season long but they may not get enough wins for a top 6 spot

Tassie and SEM are badly depleted so hard to read them yet. Brisbane later in the year will be better so hard to read them too. You'd think Melbourne will try to replace Caroline with a stud 4-5, which changes them completely. Adelaide haven't played yet. Lots of balls still up in the air that's for sure!