York, Carr and Stuart will lose all credibility as coaches after this campaign I reckon.


Step 1. Make the camp list really small and leave out the top performers from ajcs.
Step 2. Take all COE kids to the asia cup/WC regardless.
Step 3. Take girls who did not even make the ajc u18 state team.
Step 4. Take several players who were outclassed by others, even teammates.

From a Vic perspective having only 1 player from the Girls Vic Metro team that won AJC is pretty average. Its not like there weren't any standout performances from particular players either. As for the girl who wasn't in Vic the team, she clearly has a lot of potential but at the moment she's not even close to being a standout performer in VJBL.

The boys team was relatively easy to choose, the bigs, the forwards... only tough decision was choosing the pgs.

Ferranato and savage + dent were chosen but we still had Foxwell, pitman and Jonathan as other quality options.

Clearly the 2 u.s based players, Amir and maker were not available.
6'6-6’7; Amir would have been a great addition as a shooting wing/forward.

The only questionable decision was the selection of rapp who averaged 7 pts, 8 rbds at ajc.

Wasnt alot of quality pgs in the girls at u18s.
Coaches shouldn't be afraid to use double bottom agers in fiba comps.
We saw Ezi play u19s and potter as double bottoms, why not take a pg from 07? Lots of outstanding pgs in that age group that would outperform both 05/06.

I think the top 05 and 06 PG's are pretty decent. I would agree that the talent is higher in the 07 group, but I don't think they are there yet.

05/06 pg

Gray tas
Harvey vic c
Burrows vic m
Holmes qld n
Cameron(nz) qld s
Martin nsw m
Hinton sa m
Foster wa m

Harvey has probably the brightest future out of the above but collectively the rest of the group is well below the 99/00, 01/02, 03/04 and potential of the 07/08 group.

99/00 had pgs/cgs like Shelley, Conti, Goodchild, Cubillo, Hurst
01/02 had pgs/cgs like Heal, Melbourne, Amoore, Scanlon, Henderson, Ellis
03/04 had pgs/cgs like Deeble, Loughridge, Heal, Moffatt, Fakalata
07/08 has already quite a few standouts, hall, seumanutafa, Lehmann, Notoa etc etc
Even 09 is showing quite a few, Elliot...

Burrows showed herself to be the best PG at nationals. She out played all of them.

I think Burrows was pretty good too, she's very unlucky not to be in the team.

Re the 07 girls, I don't think Lehman or Notoa are PG's, very good players though. Seumanutafa seems more suited to SG also but you could call her a PG.

She was the best defensively in that position for sure. Would come in handy in asia.

When I watched the ajcs, I thought the selectors would come to their senses and pick the players that were easily outperforming the Coe kids and that their would be no bias, but it obviously did not happen.

Given that the asia tournament was first for qualification and that typically only 1 team can compete with us in the height department, I thought the team would look more guard heavy, particularly using guards that could defend and also initiate + also have mobile forwards who could crash the glass and do a bit of everything. slowing down teams like japan, Korea, Phillipines with a team full of bigs will be tough with the selected group.

Would have gone with...

5'6 Burrows pg
5’8 Harvey cg
5’9 Gray cg
5’9 Twidale cg
5’10 Bobongie sg
5’10 Wickstrom g/f
6’0 Clark sf
6’1 Shiels cf
6’1 Donnelly cf
6’2 Petrie pf/c
6’3 Crichton c
6’4 Juffermans c

Reserves
Holmes pg
Alexander sg
Gardiner sf
Bradley pf
Betson c

If a player did not perform well or they needed more size, I expected that they would make a change or two before the WC.

Chosen squad...

5'8 Harvey cg
5’9 Gray cg
5’9 Twidale cg
5’10 Bobongie sg
6’0 Clark sf
6’1 Shiels cf
6’1 Bradley pf
6’1 Hanson pf
6’2 Petrie pf/c
6’2 Betson c
6’4 Juffermans c
6’6 Portlock c

You’ve got 6 players that play as a 4-5 man.

Boys selected

6'1 Savage pg
6’1 Ferranato pg
6’3 Dent cg
6’4 Devers g/f
6’4 Briggs g/f
6’5 Brewer g/f
6’5 Siulepa cf
6’5 Furphy cf
6’6 Rapp c
6’8 O’Donnell c
6’10 Hughes c
7’2 Zikarsky c

Rapp maybe the head scratching decision with this group. Only 1-2 good games in the tournament. Undersized big man that is strong, can shoot the 3 but a little slow getting up and down the floor.

6’7 Amir cf is a huge loss, someone ranked top 40 in the USA in the age group.
Raw 6’11 maker also missed out.

How many top age players?

Girls


Saffron Shiels - NSW 06

Lulu Twidale - QLD 05

Sienna Harvey – VIC 06

Rubi Gray – TAS 05

Monique Bobongie – QLD 06

Jayda Clark – WA 05

Olivia Bradley – SA 05

Summah Hanson – QLD 05

Tabitha Betson – VIC 05

Isla Juffermans – NSW 05

Jess Petrie – QLD 05

Sarah Portlock – VIC 06





Boys

Josh Dent – NSW 05

Kristian Ferronato – VIC 05

Tristan Devers – VIC 05

Lachlan Brewer – TAS 05

Carlin Briggs – VIC 05

Joshua Hughes – QLD 05

Roman Siulepa – QLD 06

James O'Donnell – NSW 05

Rocco Zikarsky – QLD 06

Austin Rapp – VIC 05

Jacob Furphy – TAS 06

Kye Savage – TAS 05

How tall is Foxwell? Just trying to understand why not selected.m, because he loves well.

^moves!

Height estimates

Ayoubi 5'10
Oneill 5’10
Foxwell 5’10-5’11
Savage 6’1
Ferranato 6’1
Jonathan 6’1
Brooks 6’1-6’2
Pitman 6’1-6’2
Dent 6’2-6’3

All the best pgs were smallish

It works in juniors to be that height, but you have to be really, really, really exceptional at that height to take it to the next level as you move to seniors. Unfortunately, BV do not seem to recognise the end-game early enough, and put to much effort at u12-u16 into kids that have grown early, can dominate on the court but simply just ain't going to grow and so can’t compete at the highest level past 15 / 16 years old. TBH, unless a PG looks like being > 6’2", I’d pass. Sorry for being "height-est” but it is the sad reality in this game, and increasingly so. If you have parents that are short and want to make it to an elite level, try another game.

kanga, and then you have the taller kids in up to U16's who have to play as bigs, but you know development wise they are not going to be big enough to play big as they progress so really need to be developed as gaurds (the u16’s who are the 6"1-6”3 type) The old question of winning V development for future.

Yeah, I agree with you. So many kids who are 13 / 14yo and basically fully grown being taught how to play big their whole bball life. A real shame. Parents need to take some responsibility here - they need to work with the coaches to make sure there is a vision as to what bball looks like for their kid as they get older ... and don't grow.

If I was a father who was < 6 foot or so, I would not let my kid play big in under-age teams, even if they were 5’10" at 13 or 14, as they will never be able to handle the ball well enough to enjoy basketball as they get older and don’t grow.

It all a shame, and never dealt with well. Football is much better for kids that grow early and won’t be tall, as there is a future for them even if they end up being 5’10” or so. They can be a nice junior baller but that’s about it.

IMO, BV should just not bother selecting kids at u16 and older who won’t be taller than 6’2”. Almost full stop … unless they are really, really, really exceptional.

And for SDP (don’t get me started with that race to pubity), they need to be much more selective - unless the kid is long at that age, don’t select. It’s just about being a bit more scientific and realistic. It takes effort to find the kids that will likely be worth the effort and for whom the extra training will pay off for the State, but worth it.

If you follow that selection process you will deselect our next Patty Mills at u16 and push them into another sport. The flow on will be a lower standard overall which will also affect the development of the taller kids that might fit your profile. Not to mention that some of those shorter kids might keep growing and end up not being short, but you will have already lost them. There is a far bigger problem with bias towards early developers than there is with selecting shorter kids.

You missed my comment about smaller guys who are really really really good and great shooters, like Patty!
You make some very good points though.
I still think the biggest issue is the focus on early developers, and putting too much time into kids who just won't get big enough. Think of those kids that just bully their way to the rim in juniors, head down racking up points and without regard to their teammates spacing the floor. They often get selected for SDP and other programmes, and it’s just a waste of State resources, and it’s all to the detriment of skilled kids who are long and will develop later. Smart coaches sit back and observe, looking at what the kid might become with their coaching input, rather than what the kid is now.

Rapp over Ibukonaluwa is real head scratcher for me. I would of thought he did as much as he could given the team he had around him at nationals.

If all were available, this team would make 1/4 finals atleast at WC.

6'1 05 Savage pg
6'1 05 Ferranato pg
6’3 05 Dent cg
6’4 05 Devers g/f
6’4 05 Briggs g/f
6’5 05 Brewer g/f
6’5 06 Siulepa cf
6’7 05 Amir cf
6’8 05 O’Donnell c
6’10 05 Hughes c/pf
7’0 06 Maker c/pf
7’2 06 Zikarsky c



With the current selections, I predict
1st or 2nd in asia
7th-11th at WC

Previous result
1st - 2017 u16 asia
6th - 2018 u17 WC

Field set
China and Taipei not coming.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_FIBA_Under-16_Asian_Championship

Rapp can stretch the floor and shoot better than any of them.

Will Australia send a team in the U-16 Asian Championship?

My bad, never mind, didn't read the whole thread and just the title. I'm looking forward to seeing them in action.

Australia vs India 10.45pm Est on YouTube tonight.

Nzl beat kazhkstan 92-67

Score was flattering to India in the end. Not many fouls called either, although to be fair there was some hands off defence by one of the teams playing.

Plenty of rotation but will be looking for tougher games ahead.

Would like to see next game

Ferranato
Devers
Briggs
Hughes
O'Donnell

Savage
Dent
Brewer
Siulepa
Zikarsky

Furphy
Rapp

Thought Dent was terrible today, not a pg at all and both high flying Briggs n Siulepa were to timid, trying to furness the ball in, trying to be crafty instead of just dunking it.
Devers was great on d and Zikarsky was used well, didn’t play him too much or too little.
This team really needs Foxwell and Amir imo, an actual pg and a shooting wing/forward.
Pity it won’t be changed after this tournament.

Always so bitter Weedy Slug

Foxwell needed.

Not exactly sure of the player.
Tassie player with the shaved head/very short hair

Is he injured? As I haven't seen him hit the court, even with the blow outs

Any word?

What's with the foxwell love? Undersized high volume scorer. Not exactly a world level player.

Both brewer and Hughes have not played yet.

Dent struggling to bring the ball up is why I suggested Foxwell who was the pg reserve for this team.

Australia vs Philippines on now, should be a nailbiter

Could be close

Credit to the Phillipines, schueller getting a little bit exposed in the first half, no adjustments after the Phillipines packed the paint.

Nice 4th qtr and we are off to the WC.

Dent 2 assists away from a TD. Savage was Savage from outside

Why is schueller playing 2 slow giants vs Japan?

Congratz Aus, ran over japan in the second half.
Kawashima good future player for japan.

Guess Foxwell wasn't needed afterall. Weedy maybe not the expert they think they are.

We shall see at WC.

Hanson, Portlock, Bradley aren't really offering anything in the first game.
Shiels has been the standout, Juffermans putting up good numbers.

All these players overlooked

05
Burrows
Holmes
Heard
Donovan
Alexander
Wickstrom
Peacock
Donnelly
Crichton

06
Bond
Deas
Gardiner
Bird
Webb

07
Hall
Seumanutafa

AUS 77 - NZ 57

Juffermans 22/10
Shiels 16/10/5
Benson 11/7

Japan tomorrow

Good contribution by Harvey

Yeah, should start. Don't put all the pressure on Shiels to do everything.

S5
Harvey
Twidale
Shiels
Petrie
Juffermans

9 3PTA ??

Great first half from the s5.

Hopefully politics won't play a part in future teams. A lot of the fill in Coe kids from nbl1 this week should be ahead of Hanson and Portlock.
Surprisingly Bobongie looking flustered at this level.

Juffermans and Shiels very good this tournament, both nsw country kids.

Juffermans, Shiels, Betson and Petrie all look like they belong. There is no serious threat from 3 in the team and very little playmaking from the guards. I don't doubt they are all talented player, but this is not a well constructed team.

Getting overrun late on, not enough in the gas tank or depth in the squad.
Necessary to release a few players for more guards before WC.

Hopefully all the starters are rested in the india game.

Aus win 73-65 vs Japan

16/11/3 Juffermans
11/8/5 Shiels
10/4/8 Clark
Several other players offering nothing or very little,

Not every game is going to be beautiful - and the opposition certainly wanted it more in the second half. Bring on the next game. A win is a win.

Be interesting to see how we do at the WC after medaling twice in a row under Seebohm.
Gold in 2016, silver 2018, covid 2020, York takes the reigns for 2022 but I'm guessing we will be nowhere near the medals.

We won't even be close to the medals. We have a few more games to get ready for wc. I don’t think our guards will be good enough under up and in your face defence. No one to create. Juffermans great at Asia cup but can she dominate at wc.

I wonder if the coach had a say in the picks or her team was picked for her. I don’t think they got it right but only time will tell.

The impact of COVID lock downs on the players and the team performance should not be underestimated. Would have been very challenging for the coaches of both the boys, and this girls team, to incorporate any player not already part of the centre of excellence and to adjust the style of play used at the centre.

Add to that very limited game time preparation and comparisons with past teams results are nearly irrelevant.

Every country has been effected by covid, certainly no excuse. They played ajcs and the talent seperation was clear to see.
It wasn't the most talented age group but Coe kids should not be assured places.
The talent scout for Coe gets it wrong and others suffer.
We are 4-5 players short to be competitive.

USA, France, canada, Spain, Serbia, Slovenia I’d say are top 6, Mali always suprise from Africa and japan will never give up and could win asia in 2 days.

Its not just that they have ignored performance, they've also ignored the fact that shooters create space for everyone else and make them better. Shiels and Juffermans would be even better with more space, as would Bobongie.

There isn't a player on that team that had a decent number of made 3' at a above 30% in the AJC's. I don't know what type of players Twidale or Holmes are, but they both had good numbers in this regard, as did Burrows and Kurkowski who should certainly both be in this team on performance at the AJC's and fit.

They ain't changing it now, no way. Hopefully they can go deep at the WC

improvements were available though, just my opinion.

Shiels-Harvey/Burrows
Twidale-Gray/Bobongie
Clark-Wickstrom/Kurkowski
Petrie-Donnelly/Peacock
Juffermans-Crichton/Webb

So many bitter armchair experts in this thread

Salty Sebastian strikes again.
Aren't you the guy that hates womens sport...

If they don't make changes its better if the team does badly, otherwise we can expect a continuation of this dismal performance at selection. They have clearly not paced much emphasis on performance or how the girls fit together as a team. The players in this squad might be the most talented available, I don't think this is the case but they might be, they are definitively not the best performed though and the lack of shooting is hurting them. It will get worse when they aren't the biggest team on the floor.

This team includes players that did not perform particularly well at AJC's and has excluded some of the better performers.

Our successful teams the last 2 WC's have had back courts of Shelley/Contie and Heal/Scanlon all of whom can get into the paint and shoot the ball well. Those teams had good bigs too, but this croup is decent there and its probably deeper in wing depth. The guards are definitely not at the same level in this age group but its not like there aren't any who can break down on ball defenders and shoot at a reasonable clip.

I'm not the one slagging off from the cheap seats about selections, that’s you chump.

Why even comment if you have no interest in womens sports?
Just continue to please yourself in the basement and fap over kai Sotto.

Why such a bitter sour old man? You must be a joy to live with.

I know this cohort of girls well and I have seen them develop from U14s onwards. I am not a coach but a parent of a competitor who has played against all of these girls over the past 3-4 years.
Let me say that every one of these girls are exceptional players and they have good characters. They are wonderful representatives of our sport in the international arena.
They played competitively vs Japan and NZ and won both matches. They are on track to win the whole event - go them I say.

Having written this - I do have concerns. I am not a fan of the offense systems employed. It is early days I realize - just 2 games in, and game style will likely evolve. But there appears to much congestion in the zone resulting from a combination of 2 clear directions:
(a) A directive to pass to our bigs, who enjoy a size advantage; along with
(b) a directive to our guards to drive from the perimeter and finish at the rim.

This results in 2 behaviours:

(1) our post players - having attracted two or more defenders - are NOT passing the ball back out again to a shooter who may be open on the perimeter Rather our bigs either look to put up a highly contested shot or make a pass inside. Teams respond to this and think they won't be punished should they give Aust shooters time and space by collapsing onto our bigs;
(2) our guards are too often driving into defensive congestion and putting up poor shots. We have gotten away with it against smaller teams (like Japan), or less capable teams (NZ), but this will hurt us against teams like the US, Serbia or Canada who have size, skill and good defensive systems. Our guards need to recognize situations when there is too much congestion in the zone and decide NOT to drive to the rim rather decide to drive to an open spot on the floor and then put up a set shot (like the Americans do); or drive and kick the ball out.

In response to XXXX's view that Heal/Scanlon were a good pairing. Not against Japan. Japan has the best defensive guards in the junior game. Very quick, a lot of hand checking and reach ins that are not called, resulting in turnovers. Heal coughed up the ball vs Japan as a junior AND as a senior. We need to be a bit more humble about the dribble capability of our guards vs Japanese opposition.

In sum, I think the Japanese worked us out as the game went on. And as there guards got on top, they gained confidence as a team. Japan won the third and fourth quarters by 11 points. We will likely play Japan in the final - we need to learn from this, make our own adjustments in order for us to win.

Sorry to go on about this - but FIBA really needs to take a close look at how it officiates Japan's games. Aus copped 20 fouls in the game; Japan just 14. Aus seemed to cop a lot of fouls guarding Japan dribblers; Japan's fouls tended to come from guarding Aus bigs.

I see a lot of aggressive hand checking and reach ins by Japan's guards playing defense. This foul was rarely called in yesterdays Aust Vs Japan game and appears to be going on again in the Japan V NZ game (which is ongoing). Note there is also an asymmetry here - for Aust and NZ guards will work hard to stay in front of Japan's dribblers and keep their hands well away. But they get little love from the refs who are trigger happy calling any body contact fouls on them.

The other area relates to moving screens - off the pick and roll, the screener is obliged to move to the side of their defender should that defender be in a direct line to the basket. But the Japanese screeners roll almost directly back, barging their defenders in the process. Yet again, not called.

Think its another thing they are adding to the Japanese program, denial, disruption on top of the speed, tempo and shooting mechanics.

Australia winning the final would be a great achievement, will they have the legs?

Coe and old school coaches like York, way too much emphasis on bigs. It's becoming a big problem in Australian basketball. We produce very few sgs in the boys n girls and few if any go to Coe to develop.

1-2
Harvey pg - low minutes
Gray cg - having to play 1-2
Twidale sg - having to play 1-2
Bobongie sg - rarely playing

3-4-5
Shiels g/f - playing as a 1, ajc 4
Clark sf
Bradley cf - playing as a 3, ajc 4
Hanson pf - playing as a 3, ajc 4
Petrie pf
Betson c/pf - playing as a 4, ajc 5
Juffermans c
Portlock c - did not play ajc

This is not a balanced squad and a terrible choice for asia, especially with no China.

Surely Somfai should be in the team. She averaged 20ppg at classics playing in 18's when she could be playing in 16s.

Shes 2007
They never take double bottom agers at u15/u16 level.

U18/u19 a couple start to make it.
Last several years, Melbourne, potter and Magbegor have made it as double bottom.

This years u18 asia, Shiels may make double bottom as an 06 in the 04/05 group.

Sixersfan - there is nothing "surely" about it. You can average a high avg points score in the classucs if your team offense is built around you and you are given full license to shoot. At a national level what matters is the role you play. Otherwise you end up sith a team of individuals playing as individuals.

Won't have to wait long, u15 oceanias are in December.
Selection for that team happens this weekend at u16 ajc. Somfai not playing.
But some very good 07/08 players will,be there.

Did she not get picked or injured?

Neither.

Assuming didn't try out. Interesting if that’s the case

Spain smash australia in boys friendly match pre WC, 82-54.

Solid 19pt win by our girls vs korea. The refs - once again - giving the north Asian team a free pass, ignoring both the travel rule AND ignoring repeated reach ins and hand checks that turn into grabs. Yet the refs are trigger happy on body barging calls against us. Plenty of respect for our girls who have to play through this nonsense, to keep up their confidence and composure.

refs from the Middle East, can't expect much.

Refreshing to read the observations and commentary by red84 . Well done to the girls and the coaching staff for staying positive and focused

Shiels 20/9/8 n Juffermans 18/17 the standouts again.

Semis and final to come.

WC starts on the 9th of July.

Tabitha Betson has performed the best thus far IMO What's her plus/minus?

Shiels +24.8
Clark +20.5
Juffermans +19.3
Petrie +15.3
Twidale +14.3
Betson +12.3

I don't care too much for the individual stats - what matters are the systems we play and whether our players are making good decisions and executing key skills at the right time. It is the games Vs Japan and Korea that are the key tests for this group of players. Yet it is these teams that play a unique brand of ball - very fast, heavy reliance on traps, transition based, guard heavy - that you don't see - as a brand - in South America or Europe. I mention this because playing against Japan/Korea can make our guards appear a bit fumbly or slow. However pitted against Serbia or Canada or Argentina, all of which play a slower game (relative to Japan/Korea) and then a guard that struggled vs Korea/Japan plays much, much better.

In my view - against Japan/Korea - the surest handler of the ball - in transition and clearing out of the D - has been Clark. And that's because she tends to dribble the ball more to her side, is more prepared to effect a retreat dribble to change direction. Importantly she doesn't execute front on dribble crossovers which have caught out some of the more fancied names on our list.

I was impressed with Aust play in 3Q Vs Korea - masterful execution of breaking the Korea press. Great viewing for any jnr coach.

I am not a Victorian but I have long been a fan of Betson - she has an uncomplicated game, with a knack of being in the right place at the right time. Normally finishes well under pressure. Always fights hard. Hell of a competitor. Isla is just a force of nature. Super strong - strong above her head - old school skills in knocking and pawing a contested rebound until she can grab it as a clean possession. Soft hands despite strong moves. She is a star.

Ceiling imo

Harvey - nbl1
Gray - nbl1
Twidale - wnbl sg
Bobongie - wnbl sg
Clark - wnbl sf*
Shiels - wnbl sf and opal
Bradley - nbl1
Hanson - nbl1
Petrie - wnbl
Betson - nbl1
Juffermans - wnbl c*
Portlock - wnbl c*


* with alot of skill development and body work, could possibly reach higher levels.

Australia boys lose again 73-70 in another pre WC friendly.

I don't think these girls are old enough for a prediction to be made about their ceiling. Nobody would have thought Steph Reid had a chance of playing for Australia at that age and there have been plenty of next big things who have not gone past SEABL/NBL1.

Myself and another in 2017 said Reid whilst at buffalo would make the opals, so that's not true.
It’s not difficult to see the talent. I could tell you atleast one guaranteed senior opal per year until 2009 born.

Steph Reid would have been 21 in 2017, hardly comparable to a 16/17 year old! If you are that good at Talent ID you should get a job in the NBA, they clearly aren't at your level, the can't seem to pick who the best 19 year olds are after getting to see hours of game footage. Being able to pick a guaranteed Opal from a group of 12 year olds, many of whom have hardly played since they were 10 is pretty impressive.

2009
Hocking


Come back to this thread in the 2030s...

List any year pre 2009 I'll tell you the standout who will be a senior opal at some point in the future.

Through to the final and the WC?
Got the job done, but wow, tough refereeing for the Aussies.
Hope they have the legs to get over the Japanese.

I thought u18 weren't allowed to be commented on these forums
It's a bit weird.
Let the kids play

Shout out to Samoa who may get promoted to division A, leading the Phillipines with 1/4 to go.
A lot of quality Samoan heritage players in Aus, some players that Aus would love to have in the next u16 asia cup.

Great game by Juffermans, no one can match her in asia, too big. 37 and 15 today.
Worry that York put so many minutes into the starters. Might be gassed for tomorrow.

Dnp Bradley, Hanson, Portlock
4 other players less than 10 mins.
Starters over 32 mins each

Samoa vs Syria division b final.
Samoa should win easy and get promoted to division A, lots of Samoan Aussies like filemu, olaopu etc in the squad.

Makes it interesting in late 2022 oceania/2023 asia because alot of quality Samoan/Aus 2007/2008 players could play for either side.

Great to see so many Aussie's with Samoan heritage get their country up!

However those who are saying that they could now also play for Australia are misguided, once you have played a FIBA-sanctioned event with a country, you cannot opt to play for another. These girls are now locked into Samoa for life (which is not necessarily a bad thing either).

Juffermans is quality, but with little opposition in the Asian region. WC's will be a true test of her calibre and I think she will do well, along with Shiels in particular.

Clark also looked very good vs Koreans and against Japan.

What I meant was, Aussies with Samoan heritage have a choice to make next cycle.
Npp players could choose to play for Samoa in oceanias in December.

LC, you can also switch countries with fiba approval, especially if youve only played juniors.

Here is the actual wording, and given their ages, you are right that they *could* still switch:

"A player who has competed in an official FIBA competition after reaching age 17 is tied to that country. Those who played for one country before turning 17 may play for a different country if both countries' federations agree, with the FIBA Secretary General deciding if the federations do not agree. FIBA has an exception that allows the Secretary General to authorize a nationality change to a player's "country of origin" (i.e., a country where the player has recent ancestral roots) if it is "in the interest of the development of basketball in the country"."

I doubt you could make an argument that a Samoan player switching to play for Australia is in the best interests of the development of basketball in Samoa though...

I'm saying australia players to Samoa, not Samoa to australia.
If you don’t know, 4 current npp players in Aus have Samoan heritage...
Australia wants these players but Samoa being promoted to div A entice these players to Samoa instead.

It has been a lot of fun watching Samoa, with the starting 5 having 3 terrific girls from Bankstown. They are my second team in this comp

Looking ahead today

The Sapphires have a big danger game vs Japan in the final. Japan worked us out in their last match and outscored Aust in the second half. Aust needs to make its own adjustments - which means more passing to break the Japan press (to leverage our advantage in size); much less hero ball drives by our guards into a Japan congested zone - last time time this resulted in multiple strips. And our guards - particularly those who fancy their dribbling ability - need to maintain their composure when they do get stripped (which will happen). Against a settled defense, Aust should not be excessively focused on banging the ball into our bigs. Aust is not a team packed with quality passers. But we do have decent shooters which have yet to fully reveal themselves in this tournament so far. IMO they need to be given permission to shoot.

Regarding Samoa - i reckon they will beat Syria because the coaching has taken measures to correct high turnovers from bringing the ball up the court. In recent games our Bankstown girls have been more involved in moving the ball and this has steadied the ship. The Bankstown girls have a lot of work to do - if the game is close, they could be forgiven for running out of puff.

Would love to win asia, but we are up against it in the WC.
Some terrific teams this year.

all good Weedy...

I was just calling out that those with ambition to play for Australia have all those aspirations pretty much wiped out once they choose to play for Samoa - which again, is not a bad thing!

Well in this case, it would be for australia.

Petrie just missed a triple double yesterday in game against Korea. 13 points 10 assists and 9 rebounds. Finally had time to settle in game without so much subbing. Coach didn't play a lot of girls, turnover number still high and a few girls had 5 or more. I know it’s hard playing a lot of minutes, todays game is going to show the effects from yesterday. I also think the referring could have a say in the final result.

11 days till WC, would be flying a couple of kids from Aus right away...


Bradley - 6 mins a game + 1 DNP Avg 2/1
Portlock - 6 mins a game + 1 DNP Avg 1/2
Bobongie - 10 mins a game Avg 4/2
Harvey - 11 mins a game Avg 4/1
Hanson - 12 mins a game - 1 DNP Avg 3/5


The other end

Juffermans - 28 mins a game Avg 20/12
Clark - 26 mins Avg 10/5
Shiels - 25 mins Avg 12/8
Petrie - 22 mins Avg 7/5


Not great minute distribution and will get more difficult at the WC.

Ball handling a real problem!!! Why is lulu bringing the ball up it takes away from her natural scoring, numbers have been down. 3 point shooting continuing to be awful. Also why haven't our guards learnt not to continually dribble in the key against 3 people.

Great result for this team - 1 pt win over a capable Japan in the final. Our girls showed great fighting spirit - I was concerned during Q3 that Japan might just pull away.

FWIW - for those who watched the game - that cross court inbound pass from Japan with 14 secs to go in Q4 WAS not touched by Lulu. It should have been an Aust possession, which meant game over. A super slow replay in youtube confirmed it. A ref howler - never mind - we got up to win fair and square - that's all that matters.

Was like the asia u16 game 4 or so years ago, down to the wire.
Hopefully BA make adjustments to tactics, improve skills like ball handling and shooting, maybe don't take as many post players to future events.
All in all a good achievement winning asia, look forward to the WC on the 9th of July.

Our WC group, group B

Australia
France
Argentina
Slovenia



France are one of the favourites and Slovenia are a tough competitive group.

Samoa win over Syria

Turnovers galore, we should be up by 20 at the half.

Ugly 85-68 win over poland.

Nz trounced by Canada 94-46

Where are you watching these games Weedy?

Fiba YouTube

Thank you

Too many loose turnovers. Need to clean that up or it won't be close against the top teams.

Love the way Rocco goes about it, kid has some mongrel in him.

Love the way Rocco goes about it, kid has some mongrel in him.

Come on Sotto is way way more skilled than Rocco.

No doubt, hence the usage of the word bit.

Rocco 4 years younger, can run and has way better basketball skills and basketball brain than Sotto, but time will tell Daly.

Rocco, Daniels and Giddey will lead our next generation to Olympic medals

Sotto has a way higher skill level and basketball IQ compared to Rocco at the same age.

Sotto was the best player at the FIBA u16 Asia Cup, much superior stats to Rocco at the same event.

Reply #894733- List any year pre 2009 I'll tell you the standout who will be a senior opal at some point in the future.

Im interested to read your list from 2001-2009, i see no one requested it because of fear you will be right again!

fire away...

@weedy Slug i meant

Heal 01 - has already
Melbourne 02 - has already
Swain 03
Borlase 04
Clark 05
Shiels 06
Hall 07
Fagan 08
Olechnowicz 09
Jones 10
Cox 11

Some years have 2 players
Amoore 01
Potter 02
Deeble 03
Puoch 04
05x
06x
Somfai 07
08x
Smith 09
10x
11x

X = others but not confident

I see you mentioned Hocking 2009 last time in your previous post

The history of talent ID across all sports suggests you will be mostly wrong from the 05 onwards and those predictions will become increasingly bad the younger the kids.

I stopped at 2011, 12y.o you can pretty easily identify future standouts in the girls.
I've got a big list for 2012, 2013 already.

The boys are difficult, some come out of nowhere like Furphy or Dickeson etc
I was not even aware of Dickeson until late 2022.

I'd be interested to know your 2011s Weedy.

Talent ID is something a lot of people have put a lot of work into, so there is a huge amount of research that has been done on this topic. There has been published academic research that indicates a 0% correlation between performances at the age of 10 and success at the senior level. Similarly, across multiple sports less it has been shown that than around 10% of kids that are identified as 12 year olds for HP pathways go on to senior success. You are trying to predict kids making the Opals, which is an incredibly difficult goal to achieve, to say it is easy to identify a girl at 12 who will reach that goal is ridiculous, your chance of success is almost 0.

Where did you pull those facts XXXX? I'd be interested to know more because I’d question them, but without being fully aware myself.

Run a google search on Dr Joe Baker, he is a leading academic when it comes to issues relating to talent. The most researched sport seems to be soccer, where they start recruiting or academies at 7-8. There has also been a lot of research on tennis and general research on Olympic sports. A quote from one article that may be of interest:

"The research of Guellich and Emrich (2006a) on 1,558 German national squad athletes across all Olympic sports claimed also that juvenile success levels do not correlate with senior success. Of the world class athletes examined, four percent had attained top ten places at an international level when aged 14 years old, 31% at national, 23% at regional level and 42% below. However, when aged 18 years, 49% of the same world class athletes had attained international top ten achievements, 32% at national, 8% at regional level and 12% below."

Interesting. Thanks XXXX.

Yes, and talent ID is even harder when decisions are made off the back of relatively small sample sizes, and selections seem to be just carried forward (including to choose kids that don't play or focus on basketball any longer ... true story). Ultimately the good kids will make it through, but the shame is that development effort tends to be focussed on kids who grow early.

Small sample size and relative age effect are to major issues with talent ID, but
even if these things are properly accounted for or avoided, there is still the issue of development being nonlinear. Here is another relevant quote from a research paper on the subject:

"selecting athletes early in development assumes that the factors associated with early success (e.g. superior physical skills) are stable indicators of what performance will look like in the future, an assumption that does not have good research support (Baker & Wattie, 2018). Key performance capacities like the ability to read patterns of play (e.g., in sports like soccer and football), anticipate the forthcoming actions of opponents (e.g., in sports like tennis and squash) and make good decisions about the best options in specific situations (e.g., in decision-making sports like volleyball and baseball) only emerge after considerable time spent practicing. As a result, they are currently impossible to identify in early development because there are no good early indicators."

They're a lot of "I like Geronimo" going on ... “the guy’s an athlete, big, fast, talented … nice jaw … but can he hit?… he’s got a beautiful swing blah blah blah … a lot of pop off the bat … but if he’s a good hitter why doesn’t he hit good?”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pWgyy_rlmag

Leaving aside the good points made by XXXX, selections at an early age are not sophisticated enough, and in my experience don’t take into account any objective measures. Even basic stats. You end up selecting kids who develop early, look athletic for their age, and ultimately are more likely to play other sports such as football than basketball.