[The game...in Sydney with no fans?]
The game in Sydney where United lost by 2 points after having 27 fouls called on them. (Sydney had 15).
It wasn't a Perth game but it was a lucky game for Perth, given they avoided the team who had beaten them twice in a row down the stretch of that season. Both comfortable wins too.
Still amazes me how United lost that series.
Game 1- Choked a huge lead in Sydney. From memory up 16 with 6 minutes left, and lost. Threw up some ill advised shots, not even late in the shot clock in that 6 minutes too.
Game 2- Must've been one of the most dominant performance by any team in any NBL playoff ever (From memory led by 59 points, 98-39 at one stage).
Game 3- Outplayed the Kings in Sydney, refs denied United the chance to play for a title.
[LV tips Melbourne 3-0 and 3-1 and at a push 3-2 but also says that perth can win 3-0 and 3-1 and possibly 3-2. So if he gets it wrong he can come back here and say "no no see I picked that result." Just like he hedged in the Semi]
My tip is United 3-0, I stated that clearly.
You can say I was right if they sweep, wrong if they don't. It’s the most likely outcome to me.
It’s all about probabilities. I’d give probabilities something like this:
United 3-0: 50% chance, United 3-1: 25%, United 3-2: 10%, Perth 3-2: 7.5% Perth 3-1 or 3-0: 7.5%.
So 85% chance United wins. 15% chance Perth.
Injuries could always hit. That’s factored into my probabilities. Eg: if United plays all 5 games with our entire roster all fit and healthy I give us over 90%. One injury to Landale in pre-match warmup and suddenly United goes down to about 65%. My middle ground is 85%.
Crowds. I’m assuming limited capacity in Melbourne. If neutral or zero crowds, drop United down slightly.
Blanchfield. Will he be at his absolute best for the majority of the 5 games? Unlikely. But very likely he goes off and shoots 25 at least once. If he does, Perth has a good chance of a win. So I give them 50% chance of a win. Mooney is always there but Landale will roughly match or better his impact in most games. Blanchfield is the guy who could help bridge the Cotton gap.
All these factors are weighed. They all influence results.
The equation changes constantly. I’m saying United 85% chance of winning, Perth 15%. If United wins tonight by 20, that might jump to 95% from there. If United loses by 5 points and Landale is ruled out for the series, it might drop to 50/50.