Another strong reason for team in Tassy. Because completely surrounded by water much safer so will.prove to be a very attractive place for imports. Tasmania by having basketball ad first team ina national.competition will generate incredible one eyed interest in the sport. By getting ahead of AFL. Tassy can.promote as safe haven for spectators and players. Would think 2 teams out of NZ based on same theory 2 islands be worth explororing also. Need to be thinking both inside and out of the box. Thoughts

Australia is also an island completely surrounded by water so it's all good. NBL - the safe haven league.

"Larry's other business interests are going to take a hit as well - he is going to have to be savage."

You think Chemist Warehouse would be struggling right now?

there won't be any imports, 1 clubs won't be able to afford to pay them 2 they won't be allowed into the country

Another strong reason for team in Tassy. Because completely surrounded by water much safer so will.prove to be a very attractive place for imports.

I'm not sure if things will be as bad as people are thinking. May only take a few months to get on top of this virus. As for what kind of imports we will get, yes our money will take a hit but so will everyone elses. The same players still gotta eat somewhere. And I think international travel restrictions should have well and truly eased up by then.

Some things may change off court with sponsorships but I think comparatively, because every league will have this issue, the talent will be about the same.

International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go. The US looks like they're not going to be on top of this for a couple of years.

"International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go."

This is a reasonable take.

Consider best case scenario. i.e., in 6 months, Australia's measures have broadly worked and the infection numbers have been kept below 1,000,000 say. So we'd have 1,000,000 people with, hopefully, some immunity to infection with COVID-19. What about the other 25,000,000? What restrictions would need to be in place until Australia could achieve herd immunity? Bans on international travel would have to be one of them, wouldn't it?

So how long until we can reach herd immunity? If we had a vaccine and started manufacturing, distributing and administering it today, it'd probably take more than 3 months. That's thinking back to when the bird flu scare happened and how long it took, then, for the government to be able to obtain enough Tamiflu vaccine just for the 10% of the Australian population then most at risk. And then we already had flu vaccine stockpiles before that virus emerged. With COVID-19 we'll be starting from zero and vying with every other other country for vaccine supplies.

Anyway, we seem to be 12 months away from having a vaccine, so the question really is - how long (if at all) to get to herd immunity without a vaccine and without decimating the population along the way?

Longer term impacts of this are pretty impossible to guess, we are in uncharted territory. I listened to a talk from an agri markets researcher last week and he basically said to think of this like we are in the early stages of a war. I wouldn't be shocked if there is no international travel for 12 months or more, especially if there are still pockets of infection out there globally, which I'm sure there will be. Just like the 1918 flu, it would be the 2nd wave that would be the most deadly, because it would be from local transmission where as right now it is still largely international travelers who have the virus (may have changed over the weekend, haven't looked at the stats in a few days, that was the case Friday at least).

I think the rich benefactor model of sports like the NBL is at risk, definitely. The timing is good compared to say the NRL or AFL in that we got almost through an entire season, but I don't think things will be back to normal come October - I still don't think we'll have indoor events with more than a certain number of people by then baring some sort of medical near-miracle.

You mean basketball might return to being a sport rather than an 'event' or 'experience'?

Just looking for a ray of brightness amongst the gloom.

I still think the NBL has less to worry about than many other organisations.

If we have not locked this virus down and out within 6 months, then we will be in deep shit and sport will be the last thing we worry about.

So assuming we have, and the games can start up almost as usual.
> Highly paid players will take pay cuts, no choice.
> Teams are already dependent on wealthy owners with deep pockets, so that won't change.
> Most teams play in public venues (even if under private management) and they will have to accept lower rents.
> Unless there is in place a 100%, no-exception, USA travel ban, imports will be plentiful and cheap.
> Disposable income for tickets will be severely limited, that is probably the biggest problem, and clubs will have to cut some prices.

International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go.

As I said above, I wouldn't be surprised if there is still next to no international travel at all in 12 months' time, especially for guys just wanting to come play basketball in Australia. International travel has stopped because many countries are not accepting anyone except nationals, and that will last as long as it takes to get the virus under control, which could be a long time.

Wealthy owners with deep pockets might also not exist in the same number. Pockets are not going to be so deep when all is said and done for a lot of people. The wealthy own sports teams for a number of reasons, but few of them are for the profit.

Impact will be huge short term. Long term (NBL-wise) it's impossible to say, but I think we will recover, but we may have just finished watching peak-NBL for a number of years.

Consider best case scenario. i.e., in 6 months, Australia's measures have broadly worked and the infection numbers have been kept below 1,000,000 say.

Anyway, we seem to be 12 months away from having a vaccine, so the question really is - how long (if at all) to get to herd immunity without a vaccine and without decimating the population along the way?

Illawarra now on life support - who's next?