NZ 14-13 (2nd best percentage)
Brisbane 14-13 (worst percentage)
Melbourne 13-13 (best percentage)

Best > Worst percentage is roughly 1.5% differential
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To come:
Melbourne v Cairns
NZ v SEM
Brisbane v Cairns
SEM v Melbourne
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Cairns & SEM are the critical nere.

If they beat Brissy, that probably takes the Bullets out of it. If they beat Melbourne, that probably takes United out of it.

NZ beating SEM is good for them but won't be enough necessarily - if Cairns lose that opens the door to percentages playing the part.

If NZ wins, Cairns & SEM lose both: we're all tied up at 15-13.
If NZ loses, Cairns wins both & Melbourne beats SEM: we're all tied up at 14-14

Just to confirm - tiebreaker is points percentage, NOT head-to-head?

If Melbourne win both this weekend, and Brisbane's out, United will squeeze into the 4. There's no way the Breakers can catch up on the win%.

The timing of the Melbourne v Cairns game is crucial. Cairns have an outsider's chance of coming 2nd I believe, if Perth lose and Cairns gain the difference in two wins. Given NZ need a Cairns win, that'll help the cause.

The table is decided by %

Table (current) is
Breakers: 14/13 and 101.55%
Bullets: 14/13 and 100.57%
United 13/13 and 101.80%

So Breakers play SEM in Christchurch on Friday
Bullets play Cairns at home on Saturday
Melbourne play Cairns at home on Thursday and then SEM at home on Sunday

So, you would expect Breakers to beat SEM with a game score of say 95 to 90 that would take them to 2,517 for and 2,475 against, or % of 101.7%

Best Case: Breakers 15/13 and say 102%; Worst Case: 14/14 and say 101%

Bullets: Smashed Cairns early, but Cairns are hot and would have played two days before. Will they go hard, or play strategically? Cairns are unlikely to go to 2nd. Let's say Bullets win and the score is say 93 to 91.

Best Case: Bullets 15/13 and say 101%; Worst Case: 14/14 and say 100%

Melbourne: Will go hard against Cairns, but United have not been playing well this end of the season, then a final game against SEM. This game will set the table

Best Case: United 15/13 and say 102.5%; Worst Case: 13/15 and say 100%

If the three teams win all four games, then United will be fourth, but if they drop a game, then it is likely that the Breakers remain. For the Breakers to hold, they need to win, but also win by at least 6 points more than United win by (combined) in their two games.

Bottom line is keep winning and win BIG! I think the most likely table will be:

4th: Breakers: 15/13 and 101.90%
5th Bullets: 15/13 and 100.70%
6th United 14/14 and 101.80%

SEM should throw their game. 2nd Melbourne team would look better for new fans if they were not the side that missed finals. Better than if Melb get to the big dance again.

Creek hyper extended his knee in the 4th quarter against Sydney. If he's out NZ’s has probably got a bit easier.

Things could very easily turn out like this:

United wins a hard fought game against Cairns by 5 or 6 points on Thursday.

On Friday, the in-form NZ thumps SEM by 20.

United would go into Sunday's game needing to beat SEM by a certain margin to make playoffs. 10 points or so.

What a finish to the season that would be!

I think the head to head has gone due to the inherent bias with uneven games (ie more likely to win home games)

Good article by the NBL which outlines all the possibilities:

https://nbl.com.au/news/every-possible-nbl20-finals-scenario-heading-into-round-20

Cairns being a remote chance to overtake Perth I think will doom Melbourne. Cairns will be approaching that game wanting to win and putting in max effort. United could win, but given the form of the two sides it's hard to see it happen

Man how luxurious do Utd have it playing their final game last.

Luxurious run home for Melbourne xx

"If Brisbane or Melbourne end up tied with NZ on wins and miss out on %, should they feel ripped off by the uneven fixture where NZ played Hawks 4 times but Brisbane and Melbourne only played Hawks 3 times? That extra game is an easy % booster."

Honestly, the only thing those teams should feel aggrieved about is the lousy job they did assembling their own rosters. Brisbane have repeatedly made the same errors in roster composition ever since re-joining the league, and United went out and signed two imports for big money that only play one side of the ball and don't compliment their other players at all. Both teams are lucky to be in this with a fighting chance, because I think Adelaide/SEM were also just 1 or 2 pieces away from fighting for a top 4 finish, and if Hopson had been healthy all season (and NZ didn't have the poor start to the year re: the timing of the NBA games) they would clearly be a top 4 side also.