Sydney Melbourne Perth are a lock-in for playoffs.

Brisbane likely for fourth spot, NZ in form next most likely, inconsistent 36ers have a battle on their hands with tough games against the Perth Sydney Melbs to finish their season.

Hawks, Taipans out of contention.

When I said in early Dec playoffs are questionable for Perth if they don't add a third import many laughed at me.. not looking so unlikely now is it?

Perth 12-8 next 5 games
@ Adelaide
V Melb
V Adelaide
@ Sydney
V Illawarra

Adelaide 10-9 next 5 games
V Brisbane today
V Perth
@ Sydney
@ Perth
V Melbourne

Brisbane 10-9 next 5 games
V Cairns
V Sydney
@ NZ
V Sydney
@Sydney

NZ 8-10 next 5games
@ Illawarra
@ Cairns
V Cairns
V Brisbane
V Melbourne

Two of the above 4 will make it I do think Perth will make it leaving a three way race for fourth spot.

Brisbane against Adelaide today oops.
They still have to face Sydney three times.

I was wondering how likely this scenario is, given Perth's current form, their run home and presuming no changes in personnel?

Most likely this year a team will need 15 wins or better to make playoffs. So Perth would need at least 3 more wins from their remaining 8 games. Those games are mostly against top five teams:

Sydney - 2 games remaining, 1 at home and 1 away. Season to date 0W-2L.

Melbourne - 2 games remaining, 1 home + 1 away. Season to date 1W-1L.

Adelaide - 3 games remaining. 2 home + 1 away. Season to date 1W-0L.

Illawarra - 1 game remaining, at home. Season to date 2W-1L.

If they can get the 3 wins they'll need they should prevail in tie-breaker scenarios. Their points-for percentage is currently 105.5%, ahead of Adelaide's (101.2%) and Brisbane's (100.7%). Note that 5% corresponds to about 90 points at the moment. So, if they get the wins but are tied with either of them, they should hold a playoff spot.

It's unlikely either of Illawarra or NZ will get the 7 wins they'll need to make playoffs.

Brisbane have 3 more games against Sydney, 1 against Adelaide and 5 against bottom three teams. 5 games at home and 3 away and Brisbane are better at home than away this season.

Adelaide have 1 against Sydney, 2 against Melbourne, 3 against Perth, then 2 against bottom three teams. 4 games at home and 5 away and Adelaide are basically the same at home and away this season.

Brisbane looks likely to go 5-4 or better.

So it's likely the Adelaide-Perth matchups will be critical to both teams' play-off chances. If Adelaide win all 3 of those, they should tip Perth out of play-offs. It would be easy to see Adelaide going at least 2-3 in its other games. That would leave Perth having to go 3-3 in its other games and that looks unlikely.

If Perth win one game against Adelaide, it's more even. It's likely Adelaide would struggle to go 4-2 in its other games, so Perth would need to go 2-4 in its other games, to make playoffs. I think Perth woudl have a slightly better chance than Adelaide in this scenario.

If Perth win 2 games against Adelaide, then it's more likely they'd win at least the 1 more they'd need from other games than Adelaide would win the 5 more it would need.

If Perth win all 3 against Adelaide, Perth make playoffs.

This season Perth are around 12 points better at home versus on the road (+11.2PPG at home vs -0.7PPG away), with 5 of their remaining games at home. Even allowing for the 40 point home win against Illawarra in week 1, they've still performed much better at home than away.

They're fiercely proud of their record of playoff appearances. They have the personnel to play better than their recent form indicates. I think they'll make it.

Given the stakes and histories for both teams, those Adelaide-Perth games should be doozies!

Perth has a tough run of games even though they are at home. Its their poor form which is the issue. Brisbane has face sydney three times but its at a good time with the possibility that the kings will be in cruise mode after locking top spot.

I think this is the year that the cats will finally miss playoffs. NZ in the box seat IMO on current form and games ahead.

Anonymous- have you been watching the games? The right third import such as a Josh Childress type would improve the efficiency of the offense immensely.

NZ has 10 games left including 3 vs Illawarra and 2 vs Cairns. Their first 3 games against those teams were all double digit wins.

No games left vs Sydney or Perth. 2 vs United.

They're 8-10 but could quite conceivably finish 15-13.

So..... when in the next few weeks do we expect the NBL to announce going to a 6 team play-off series for 2019 ?

Or are they waiting to se if they need to go to a 7 team series ?

The heat needs to be applied on Troy, Gleeson doesn't have final say.

Troy's record has been spotty since taking over. Didn't re-sign Prather, didn't get a proper replacement for Knight last year.

I doubt whether Cotton will be right for next game. Chalk that up as a loss. The straits are dire

PeterJohn, somehow, can you do a locked thread (one that only you can post on) post, after each remaining round, like the one I have just read.

I thought it terrific and I know that lots of reader won't. If you had a thread and I like it, I can read it. If not, I ignore the thread 9as we all already do, anyway).

For really interested nuts like me, and for those who lack real insight, like me, that was clearly thought out, with your reasoning in full view.

Thanks.

I have no words for last night other than utter garbage, I would've booed if we won that game cos we definitely didn'g deserve it and it would have been a bail out. If we have to miss finals for tough decisions to be made then I'm happy with that.

We're missing a strong finesse player. Last 3 titles involved Prather and Ennis, both very strong finishers at the hoop and finesse to adjust their shot depending on the defender. Kay is strong, but has no finesse, unless he's wide open he's going to miss a good percentage of challenged shots. Cotton is all finesse, but too small and not strong enough some times against the bigger defenders. I like Terrico, but he doesn't cover these qualities. The last time we had someone without these traits, his name was Deandre Daniels, and he was whatever the opposite of finesse is...the complete other end of the scale. Crawford was the strength and finesse back in the early days. I'm convinced, strength and finesse wins titles.

I'm even starting to regret the signing of Angus "one move" Brandt...

We ain't here drippin in finesse. It don't make no sense.

Thank goodness someone else understands basketball is a business and that the money decisions rest with Troy and the board not the coach. Gleeson would've signed a 3rd import in a minute but he has to say what he’s told to say. Duh!

C'mon pork

Bringing logic to a cats bashing forum ;) (does feel like that sometimes)

We all know Gleeson as the coach is responsible for everything.

I think the team is being let down because he spends so much time creating the dancers routines and restocking the bars. The latter is the real issue, because as the performances get worse we all drink more and he has to spend more time after the games ordering stock and refilling the bar. This means less time working with the team, even worse performances.. more beer...

Vicious cycle.

The OP is an imbecile.

You should have complained at customer service anon.

He man's the desk there

Still only 1 game off top spot and a half game off second.
Crazy when you think about recent form.
Thank goodness for the 10-1 start that should keep playoff streak safe.

Thanks robt. Reasoning may be clear but the outcome is still up in the air. I have to say this year's NBL keeps throwing up unexpected results. I don't feel confident trying to predict the outcome of any game until the last 30 seconds. Even then...

I honestly don't know.

If we were to assume that the injuries Cotton, Brandt, and white are carrying are minor and getting better, then I would expect the team to rebound and do enough to make the 4.
On the other hand, if they are serious and waiting for season's end to book surgery, then they could struggle.

We know the CEO is an incompetent yesman. If he is being dictated too by the board, then we have a problem.
If we are to believe what has been said, then for the 2nd year running Gleeson has been hamstrung by the bean-counters. Which realistically means he now has one foot out the door looking for his next gig. That doesn't bode well for a turnaround.

I posted this in the 36'ers thread. Repeating here.

Not a fan of Perth but I do want their finals streak to continue for ever.

Now here's a double-edged sword.

How would it be for Perth fans if their finals-appearance record went on for say, another 30 or 40 years?

And for the Perth haters, Imagine their euphoria if they were beaten every year, in the 1st round.

Sorta like that oldie about seeing your mother-in-law driving your brand new sports car over a cliff (ie, when we were still allowed to hate our mothers-in-law .. and love our sports cars).

Worth a bump?

Perth will one day miss the playoffs but not this year.