United has a bunch of guys who are due for a big game. United as a team is due for a good performance at the offensive end.

This is the 5th game of the season and the first time this season I'm saying this.

I think United wins comfortably. Double digits.

If CG's out, great opportunity to get some continuity and chemistry. I hope Hooley and Moller both get extended minutes.

Good essay. However, you forgot to say that without CG floppy 3, Melbourne will lose by 1 flop.

More specifically, I think Vickerman will put the hard word on Kennedy- and maybe McCarron too- telling them to be aggressive at the offensive end in the absence of CG.

I doubt we've seen all Kennedy has to offer. If he does try to take the game on, he could be too physically strong for Blanchfield, and Conklin will struggle to stay in front of him.

Casper won’t need encouragement. He’ll be fuming after getting robbed of his game winning basket. He’ll keep trying to shoot himself out of his slump, like he did in Perth when he hit 2 threes in the first minute and then immediately put up 2 more.

I dunno, I just get the feeling United is "due". Same reason I tipped Brisbane over Perth.

United is a veteran team of seasoned pros, guys like Casper and Kennedy who have runs on the board in different contexts all around the world. They’re proud, they’ll be angry after the Perth loss, and they’re on their home court against a less talented opponent who won’t be as hungry cos they already got a win this round.

It is a very even comp, granted, but this one to me has the smell of a big win. And no, I don’t say that every week. Could be wrong- we’ll see!

It's not so much about motivation specifically.

It's just that intangible, mysterious element. Form, confidence. Psychology.

Good players don't stay down forever.

The likelihood is that soon Casper will explode.

The likelihood is that Kennedy starts to find his rhythm with this group.

These things aren't guaranteed. Just likely.

Second spot up for grabs.
Melbourne need more from Kennedy.
Still think Melb will win but hope I'm wrong.

Goulding is a confirmed out.

McCarron already playing aggressively. Kennedy is a bit passive - not the only one like that in this import crop.

I'm expecting United to bounce back hard from Saturday. I think the way they played in Perth would have given them some confidence, and losing will have given them some fire.
Not that Hawks aren't a chance, but they'd want to jump out of the gates pretty quickly.
Looking forward to some Monday afternoon basketball :)

If Illawarra get some leg room on the flight over, they should be a chance.

Melbourne to win easily.

if Illawarra get some leg room on the flight over, they should be a chance.

I know everyone keeps saying "United are due" but maybe the Hawks are due?

Agreed with the comments on Hooley Dooley. Massive opportunity for him to score at 1 point per minute plus in CG43's absence. He could be offered 10 mins of game time and should be looking at scoring 12 to 15 points in that time.

No comments on Cedric? Has Cedric the Dragon Slayer slayed his last dragon? Could he be the wildcard in this game and drop a lazy 25?

Conklin was looking pretty energised in their other game this round!

How can people say United are 'due' when they are already the favourites to win?

Being due for a win/good performance clearly has nothing to do with favouritism. How do you come to that conclusion?

Are these injuries to Boone, Kennedy, Moller substantiated in any way?

^ Yeah I guess there are a multiple interpretations of of what "due" means.
For me it's if a team is considered strong so they're unlikely to keep losing. Therefore "due for a win". Doesn't really apply to United right now because their losing "streak" is 1 game and it was barely a loss.

Someone else people might use it in the context of a team going poorly that is maybe "due" for some luck, based on probabilities.

Maybe LV means it in the sense that the Hawks are rubbish but they won their last 2 games, so they're overdue for a loss ;)

LV, using either meaning, favouritism doesn't actually factor.

Hawks are certainly worth a bet

By "due", I meant United hasn't put in a good 4 quarter performance yet this season.

They've had 4 games that have all been quite mixed. At some point, presumably, things will "click"- even if it's only for one short lived 40 minutes before returning to mediocrity.

Casper is a confidence player. When he gets hot, he's more than capable of going off for 25 points and giving his opponents nightmares for the next week. It hasn't happened yet- he's due. Kennedy is due. McCarron is due.

Boone does appear to have some kind of injury. Kennedy it wouldn't surprise me. I guess this could put a hole in my theory that tonight's their night.

LV hasn't suited for United yet. Maybe he's due?

Was that Felix Von Hofe doing the Sportsbet read, looked like a pro compared to Wortho.

What is with goldilocks Jett's ponytails?

Dave Barlow running down the key for a jam like it's 2004.

And United looking like Dean Demopoulos era United during that hot streak.

Oh wow. Melbourne are way on top. Playing great basketball. This game is making me sleepy early.

I don't think that Illawarra will be here next season.

I just don't get Bevo's aversion to using Coenraad. He was +18 last outing and didn't play half the game. Is he injured tonight? Played 3:48 and then that's it.

Sure, he has Blanchfield at his position, but give him some of Jett's minutes or Grida's. I would've thought that he can play 2-4 OK?

Getting out-rebounded and woeful from three. He works hard on the boards and is a decent shooter.

Why does games start at 750pm here in Melbourne but 630 over in the West?

750pm is quite late.

"I don't think that Illawarra will be here next season."

That's unless they change their coach, sooner than later.

As predicted so far.

They ran a couple of plays for Kennedy in the opening minute, unfortunately he didn't make the most.

Casper caught fire early.

Feeling good. Hopefully Moller gets more time in second half.

Coenraad starting the second half.

Interesting sub plot here is Casper's foul trouble

Good test for Hooley, McCarron and Kennedy's ball carrying under pressure

Here's a question for those people who think "a basket early in the game us equal to a basket late in the game"

Why did Casper start 2nd half on the pine?

Because Vickerman wants him on at the end of the game. When it matters most.

Melbourne is due... for a bucket

LV, I think just resting him on the off-chance he could get away with it given the way Illawarra was playing.

anyone else having problems with the audio on nbl TV? mine is absolutely rooted. sounds like two seperate audio commentary tracks playing simultaneously.

Elbows!

[LV, I think just resting him on the off-chance he could get away with it given the way Illawarra was playing]

I get that.

But on the other hand, you're up 17, why not try to get an unassailable 25 point lead and bury them?

Fact is, Vickerman didn't want to risk Casper getting another foul unless absolutely necessary. If Casper had not been in foul trouble, he would've been on the court. Vickerman wanted to preserve him to increase the probability that he's available for the dying minutes.

Proves my point- coaches know that a bucket at the end of a game is worth more than a bucket half way through a game.

We have a ballgame.

This might go to 5 overtimes.

anyone else having problems with the audio on nbl TV? mine is absolutely rooted. sounds like two seperate audio commentary tracks playing simultaneously.

Ogilvy once again proving to be an oxygen thief

United with several guys in foul trouble here

Please no post-game interview with Barlow, the bloke was PAINFUL at half time

Casper having the game we've all been waiting for

Kennedy a bit of a worry though

Just isn't very aggressive. Not what I was expecting from a guy who's scored as many as he has, in good leagues, with plenty of those points coming from the line

Maybe Kennedy is still struggling with some of his injuries

Audio and video have been excellent for me on NBL.TV throughout.

Glad the Hawks made a game of it after a hapless start.

Well done Hawks, Naar was a spark off the bench, Conklin unstoppable down low. Jett toiled hard but Casper brought his A game tonight.

United's unconvincing start to the season continues.

They know it too. Poor body language not great for a team who's 3-2 and had a win without their MVP from the season to date. They expect better, so do I.

I was expecting less from this game but I was actually pretty into it. Caspar Ware starting to look like the guy by the same name who played in that team last year. David Barlow's dunk came out of nowhere, and then he simulated flinging shit at the crowd. The pace was good, Conklin was tough inside. Yeah, not too bad at all.

United wont win a title if DJ Kennedy is in the team!

Proves my point- coaches know that a bucket at the end of a game is worth more than a bucket half way through a game.

"Here's a question for those people who think a basket early in the game is equal to a basket late in the game."

A basket early in the game is equal to a basket late in the game, that's indisputable as they contribute the same on the scoreboard. What gets lost in that discussion is baskets late in a close game are often tougher to get, because the intensity of the defence rises. That's why players who can score (or create) in late-game situations are highly valued.

Exactly Paul.

"Worth " is not merely about how many points are contributed but how hard those points were to get. End game buckets are more of a scarce resource.

However if enough baskets are scored at the start/during the game than those late baskets are meaningless in the big scheme of things, hence the "garbage time" expression.
As such, using your "logic" at the start baskets are worth more than late game ones!
Oh and coaches do start players in foul trouble on the bench, no mystery there or some diabolical plan, it's basketball 101.
Keep pumping yourself LV, your coaching and analytical commentary is hysterical!

You're late to the party here buddy.

This whole conversation was in reference to Casper's denied basket with 1.4 seconds left in overtime.

Pay some more attention next time.

Do we have any explanation of Barlow's celebration yet? I need to know...

PS: Paul added some beef, but he pretty much explained exactly why my point was correct

That my point is in fact accurate, I don't think anyone doubts except maybe the one and only Koberulz.

If a point is scored early, the other team can always reply.

A basket denied in the dying seconds leaves no opportunity for a reply. It is final. That Casper Ware bucket would've been the final word in that game.

Now, if he’d scored another bucket earlier, you could say "Well there’s his two points", but that ignores context- 2 points earlier will shape the way the game is played later. Hence- there’s opportunity for a reply, and to shape how to reply.

"If a point is scored early, the other team can always reply. A basket denied in the dying seconds leaves no opportunity for a reply."

If the other team had scored another basket earlier then that score in the dying seconds might be meaningless to the result. A late score isn't of more value than an early score - buckets at any time of the game are equal, with exception of 3s over 2s obviously - but they can be harder to get at certain times of the game.

Of course- this isn't an absolute statement. It's always context dependent- and the context of this whole discussion was a basket denied with 1.4 seconds remaining.

Assuming a close game though, a basket at the end is always worth more, for the reasons outlined.

And as last night's game shows, coaches will defer to the assumption that the end will matter more, even during a game that isn't close. No one's adequately answered the question of why Vickerman was saving Casper, even though there was the possibility of leaving him on court (he had 14 first half points) and blowing out the result from a 17 point lead to an unassailable 25 or 30 point margin. The only reason he was off the court was because of foul trouble. The question is why does this matter? Why not just leave him on the court and risk him getting a 4th foul? Why save him to increase the chances he'll be able to play minutes late in the game?

You're assuming that "worth" is measured in points. Worth just means value. Value is not measured entirely in quantifiable terms of "points".

Also, consider the way Casper started the Perth game- 5 or 6 points in the first minute. Then what, 11 points in the first 3 or 4 minutes last night?

Vickerman would've been well aware of this. But still decided to bench him to start the second half.

Also, if certain players can score in the clutch but others can't, then that alone tells you that clutch baskets are more valuable than other baskets.

Which is my whole point.

No, because 'clutch' baskets are only relevant if you've scored enough baskets earlier in the game.

Vickerman for PM because he saved a starter for crunchtime! LV's uncovered an incredible coaching ploy!

LV, I admire your resilience, but you pick some bizarre points and reasons to argue them.

There are only certain players that the coach will ask to shoot a game winner.

Why was Vickerman ok with Hooley on court to start the second half, giving him ther opportunity to score those baskets earlier in the game, but he wouldn't generally want Hooley on at the death?

In other words Paul your last comment is 100% true but also irrelevant to the question.

Isaac, there's a reason it's called "crunch" time.

Yes, because both teams have scored close to an equal amount of valuable baskets leading up to the final minutes, bringing the game to a "crunch" at the end.

Correct Paul. And which basket is the most valuable- the one at the crescendo, to which there is no reply and after which, the result is decided? Or the many valuable baskets prior?

Equally valuable. As I said, the value of a score at the end of the game is dependent on those scored (and prevented) earlier in the game.

Why was Vickerman ok with Hooley on court to start the second half, giving him ther opportunity to score those baskets earlier in the game, but he wouldn't generally want Hooley on at the death?

If memory serves, Hooley was subbed on in the last minute, after Kennedy fouled out. That was strategic- so that United had 3 guards to deal with the full court pressure, with Hooley being a better ball handler and free throw shooter than Moller.

None of that is relevant, or makes any difference to the point I've been making.

Your other comment about keeping players fresh is irrelevant to my example- Casper had just been sitting in the changerooms for 15 minutes. So clearly, keeping him off to start the second had nothing to do with giving him a breather.