Hopefully it's not as you want it Dazz and we are waiting for Yernited v Perth.

This season deserves a final minute drama.

By the end of Friday night, we could have a very clear picture, or still a very murky one. :-)

Finals start this week as far as I'm concerned. Pretty much every game is an elimination final.

Cairns season is on the line and 36ers will be desperate to get some form
Going into the finals. No team wants to be going 1 of 4 or 2 of 4 goin into the finals. I think this could go the split with home teams winning their respective matches.

Sydney with one game to play and they have to win this one but at the Arena Perth should and must win this one.

United have a tough run, Played Monday then have a Fri in NZ and the home to Perth. On current form they should beat NZ but do they have the legs to beat Perth after such a tight schedule? This is probably the biggest match of the round.

Hawks should knock of Bullets but nobody wants to play a team with nothing to lose and everything to prove. After dropping the game against United this is a gave Hawks can't and should t lose.

So many possibilities remain.

I'm tempted to say how I believe it will play out, but I'm too scared to do so ;-)

It's still possible to have 5 teams finish on 14 wins (I don't think 6 is possible?) It would rely on Bris beating Illawarra in Illawarra though, so that's unlikely. But having 4 teams on 14 wins isn't so unlikely at all.

Can't wait.

Haha but we love your daylight predictions LV ;) jk
But seriously I don't think anyone would of predicted how close it was going to be.

Melbourne's big game is vs NZ - win this and they most likely will make finals, lose it and I think they will be out.

If United lose to NZ then their best result is 14 wins, by beating Perth on Sunday.

But if Perth then lost to Sydney on Friday then United might still have a chance? Since United own a 3-1 split vs Sydney (who would be on 14 as well) and a 3-1 split vs Cairns who will be on 14 if they beat 36ers one out of two.

If Cairns, Sydney, United and NZ all ended up on 14 in that scenario, who takes the two spots? United would have a 6-6 record in that mini pool. NZ would have a 5-7 record. Cairns would be 6-6. Sydney would finish in 3rd position because they would be 7-5. (3-1 vs Cairns, 3-1 vs NZ, 1-3 vs Mel).

Would it then defer to the Melbourne and Cairns split? If so then United makes it.

So. If United loses to NZ then they probably need Sydney to beat Perth to keep their hopes alive? I suspect if United loses to NZ and Perth beat Sydney then it would be very very unlikely for United to make it. (Maybe possible under some scenarios tho?)

United's best scenario is winning both, and then Cairns beating Adelaide twice. In that event, a 15 win mini pool arises out of Ill/Cairns/Mel (if Ill beat Bris), or if Bris beat Ill then it's between Cairns/Mel on 15 wins.

Either way United would finish second.

If United wins both games but Cairns don't, then United will finish third.

Sorry, if United wins both but Cairns don't, then United will finish third...UNLESS Illawarra loses to Brisbane. In which case United would get second.

So many possibilities. It would be cool if Syd beats Perth, United beats Perth after losing to NZ, Cairns wins one vs Adelaide and Bris causes the boil over vs Illawarra.

That would leave United, NZ. Cairns, Illawarra and Sydney all on 14 wins and battling for positions 2-4. 3 teams would make it and two would miss out.

I'll leave someone else to work out that mini pool :-)

Of course if Perth beat Sydney instead bit those other results remained then the 5 team mini pool for 2nd-4th would be United, NZ, Illawarra, Cairns and Perth.

So many possible mini pools. Maths nerds and bet geeks will be going berserk this week!

Wheres the best place to find splits for the season? Trying to calculate what the ladder will be based on likely results.

Assuming Cairns split this week with Adelaide.
New Zealand beat Melbourne at home
Perth take care of Sydney and eliminate them
Illawarra handle brisbane
Then MElbourne beat Perth at home

Adelaide 18-10
Illawarra 15-13

Melbourne 14-14
Perth 14-14
NZ 14-14
Cairns 14-14

Syndey 13-14
Brisbane 10-18

Who advances in a mini series out of Melb, Perth, NZ and Cairns. Alternately if Cairns is removed (2-0 or 0-2), who advances out of Melb, Perth, NZ.

Where to find the splits without going through every
round by yourself

In that mini pool Cairns would be 7-5. Mel would be 5-7. NZ and Per both 6-6.

Does it then defer to NZ vs Per split? If so NZ goes through.

Cairns beat NZ 4-0
Mel beat Cairns 3-1
Cairns Per 2-2
NZ 3-1 over Mel
NZ 3-1 over Per

You left out melb v Perth

That's 3-1 Per but my mini pool above is correct

Question for those that have studied the final round closely...

Is it possible that the United v Wildcats game becomes a knock out game for both teams with only the winner going through to next week?

Skip, short answer: Yes.

If Mel wins and Perth loses on Friday, Cairns beats Adelaide twice and Illawarra beats Brisbane....

Ade, Cairns and Illawarra will have made it on at least 15 wins each.

4th would then be between Perth, Mel and Syd. Syd would be on 14 wins. Melbourne if beat Per would go to 15 and make it. Per if beats Mel would go to 14 wins and win mini pool between Mel, Syd and Per.

However....a more likely scenario: If Cairns won 1 of 2 vs Ade but the other above results remained...

If Mel wins vs Perth:

Mel - 3rd, 15 wins.
Syd-4th. Wins mini pool vs Cairns and Per (3-1 vs Cairns, 2-2 vs Per).

If Per win vs Melbourne:

Per 3rd
Mel 4th

create a 14 win mini pool between Per, Mel, Cairbs and Syd

In which case....Per would get 3rd and Melbourne 4th

Per 8-4 (4-0 vs Mel, 2-2 vs Syd, 2-2 vs Cairns)
Cairns 4-8 (2-2 vs Per. 1-3 vs Mel, 1-3 vs Std)

Mel and Syd would be 6-6 and Mel gets 4th as they have split over Syd

Sorry one mistake there

If Mel won under the second scenario it would because 14 win split between Syd and Cairns, Per would be knocked out with only 13 wins.

But same result- Syd would get 4th as they have split over Cairns

Also If Mel and Perth both lose on Fri, there are other scenarios that I don't have time to work out right at this second

Too many possibilities! Think I'll just wait it out and hope Casper and Chris' combined 2-13 outside night means they're due to torch NZ!!

I hear NZ are removing the roof at NSEC.

^^^
Love it.

You are the anon we don't deserve!

Dazz - One of your best threads yet. Dazz World Order 4-Life!

I just got a headache reading through this thread. So if Melbourne beat New Zealand and it's a full moon in Illawarra the Cats beat Melbourne but New Zealand lose to Cairns even though they play Adelaide after Brisbane score 50 second half points to split the series with South East Melbourne Magic that means that the Hobart Devils have to play on Wednesday against Townsville who win a mini ladder against Collingwood Magpies who have to win the AFL W against Carlton unless the Lions beat the Demons then we'll have 12 teams on 14 wins. Is that correct?

AKA - Close, you forgot the meteor shower.

:)

And if they're all still tied it will be decided by sackraces on consecutive Sundays.

I'd back the Cats this season in any sacking-based competition.

Wheres the best place to find splits for the season?

I hear NZ are removing the roof at NSEC.

Question for those that have studied the final round closely...

Is it possible that the United v Wildcats game becomes a knock out game for both teams with only the winner going through to next week?

Here is my attempt at graphically showing the Playoff race.

[IMAGE]http://imgur.com/a/sUpIe[/IMAGE]

Official Write Up:

http://www.nbl.com.au/featured-news/will-make-finals-math/

Cats have a really good article in their website summarising all the possibilities. It's explains things pretty dam well.

http://www.wildcats.com.au/perth-wildcats/final-round-scenarios/