MELBOURNE

3W-0L: 2nd-4th
2W-1L: 3rd-6th (3rd-5th if teh loss is to Illawarra)
Beat NZ, lose other 2 games: 3rd-5th, depending on other results
Beat NZ and lose other 2: 4th-6th
Any other scenario: 5th to 7th

CAIRNS

3W-0L: guaranteed 2nd-4th
Lose to Perth, beat Adelaide twice: 3rd-6th
Beat Perth and Adelaide once: 2nd to 6th
Lose all 3: 7th

ILLAWARRA

2W-0L: 2nd-3rd
1W-1L: 2nd-4th
0W-2L: 3rd-7th

SYDNEY

2nd-6th, regardless of their own win-loss record. All beating Perth will do is increase their chances of a playoff finish. They would still rely on other results to get there.

NEW ZEALAND

1W-0L: 2nd to 7th
0W-1L: 6th-7th

Great work with the scenario's PeterJohn!

I think Perth and Hawks will make it, leaving last spot between Cairns/Melbourne/NZ/Sydney

Above outcomes are not precise, as I only modelled 1-point winning and losing margins. There's a chance larger margins may affect some of the ties but that's too time consuming to model for all scenarios.

Nonetheless, it makes it clear that NZ and Sydney have lost control of their playoff destinies. All they can do is maximise their own chances by winning, then hope other games fall their ways.

The other 4 teams can still guarantee they play finals by winning enough of - or the right ones of - their remaining games.

That's a recipe for a couple of barn burners this afternoon!

Do these factor in the event of multiple teams tying in win loss and going into a mini ladder?

Excellent work!

Train - yes, it deals with multiple ties and their mini ladders, including points splits within the mini-table. It doesn't deal with residual ties within such a mini-table.

These mini tables are where the precision might be affected by my only modelling 1-point win/loss margin scenarios.

After the Cats Taipans game, no team.

The refs made it abundantly clear they will keep it close and decide the winner. We will be going to five games and a team from a small market will win it all, Taipans or Hawks. Parity is what we want so let's just engineer it.

League is fast losing credibility.

Cairns is out, play Adelaide twice, no way for Cairns to win one of those, most likely they'l lose two.

NZ plays Melbourne, Perth plays Sydney, Melbourne plays Wildcats those are hugely important games as they are games vs opponents that can make the finals.

Only Illawarra has no bearing as they play Brisbane.

Illawara is a lock, so is Adelaide, Brisbane is a lock to miss the finals.

Wildcats should make the finals if they defeat Sydney. If Sydney loses they are out of contention.

It then comes down to Melbourne or NZ for the final spot.

Game of the round is NZ vs Melbourne.

Percentage Chance of making the finals...

100% Adelaide
90% Illawara
80% Perth
60% Melbourne
50% NZ
40% Sydney
30% Cairns
0% Brisbane

Top 4 should be Adelaide, Illawarra, Perth, Melbourne.

If Illawarra are a lock why are they 90%

In the off-chance they miss, which mathematically they can. In my view they are a lock, but who knows, they may miss. Adelaide is only the sure thing.

anon,

I thought embarrassing oneself was the standard set by the officiating crews all season, and the league for not doing anything about it.

No matter what team, or where they play the officials have constantly messed up games, let's face it there is a clear desire to make it the "closest" season of all time. Unfortunately it looks downright scripted sometimes.

Yes i'm hitting the keyboard too much, but i'm also extremely frustrated with what is happening to basketball in the NBL. I don't look for parity, i enjoy well played basketball, even if my team is getting a pounding, beautiful basketball is just that.

Was it scripted that Prather has turned into Joe Shipp

ADELAIDE
Home and Hosed.
2 games to play, and won't be busting their guts

CAIRNS
13 wins with 2 games to play against Adelaide
2 wins could rocket them into 2nd place
1 win should see them finish 3rd or 4th

I just don’t see Adelaide pushing hard enough for two wins, unless they really don’t want to face Cairns in the finals.
If Adelaide were to drop BOTH games, Cairns would finish 2nd or 3rd.
Or Adelaide could just smash them in both, and Cairns won’t make it.

HAWKS
14 wins with 2 games to play
A win away tomorrow against MU would line them up for outright 2nd, but I don’t see it happening with MU fighting for their lives.
A win next week against the spooners Brisbane should see them in 3rd spot.

PERTH
13 wins with 2 games to play
Assuming they can beat Sydney in Perth, the entire season will come down to the last game in Melbourne.
Our only hope is that I believe at that point, if MU have lost in NZ, they will be out of the running and have nothing left to play for.
2 wins will give them 15, and see them finish 2nd or 3rd (depending on the Hawks)
1 win would see them finish in a 14 win bun-fight, and fall out of the 4 based on a mini-table

NZ
13 wins with 1 game to play
They host MU next week, with their seasons on the line. They should be good enough to get the win.
I’m tipping they will finish on 14 wins.
If one of the teams above fails, NZ should take 4th spot, based on a mini-table or split.

MU
12 wins with 3 to play
I think they really need to win all 3, and I just don’t see it happening.
I think whichever way you look at it, if they drop one game, they finish on 14 and lose out based on mini-table or splits

SYDENY
13 wins with 1 to play
I think they are done.
They need to beat Perth in Perth, then need a bunch of other results to go their way to force a favorable mini-table.

BRISBANE
Looking forward to next season.

Assuming Wildcats lose to Melbourne but defeats Sydney, can they make the finals?

What happens if they lose both games?

Obviously if they win both games they'll make the finals.

1 win would see them finish in a 14 win bun-fight, and fall out of the 4 based on a mini-table

Perth has the wood on Cairns, Melbourne, Sydney, but not NZ.

Assuming all finish 14-14, then the ladder should be Adelaide, Illawarra, NZ, Perth ?

No, if multiple teams finish on 14, it goes to a mini-table, not splits.
Besides, there's realistically no way that Hawks finish on less than 15.

Even if Cairns wins 1 game - does not mean they will finish 3rd or 4th - they can miss out

Anon - in your scenario of 4 teams on a 14-14 mini-table, we get that scenario if home teams win all remaining games. I've modelled that with each game being an 81-80 scoreline. In that scenario, the mini-table looks like:

Cairns 7W-5L +22
Perth 6W-6L -2
NZ 6W-6L -30
Melbourne 5W-7L +10

So Cairns would finish 3rd and Perth 4th. Scoreline clearly would be a factor, but NZ would need to win big against Melbourne and Perth lose big against Melbourne to change that outcome.

Hopefully Adelaide are in a position to engineer a finals situation maximising the regional teams in play!

I'd love to see an Adelaide/Hawks/Cairns + Melbourne/Sydney GF series, now THAT would be a 'regional ruckus'!

Assuming Perth defeats Sydney but loses to Melbourne then Perth needs the following to happen,

Ill v melb....ill

Cns v ade...ade
Nz v mel....mel
Ill v bris....bris or ill, doesn't matter
Ade v cns....ade

Bobby - OR if Melbourne wins all 3 and Cairns win 1 of 2 - Perth will still make it won't they bc have split on Cairns

Adelaide have qualified. Illawarra have all but, and would have to lose tonight and next week to Brisbane to not secure 2nd place in the playoffs and fall into a 14-14 tie with 3, 4, 5 or 6 teams perhaps qualifying.
Illawarra/Melbourne, Breakers/ Melbourne, Melbourne/Perth, and Sydney/Perth games will sort out the mini table order and differential.
Cairns have to at least split with Adelaide to make the 14-14 mini table.
One result can shuffle teams up and down the order.
Fascinating week for the junkie.

"Is it a three-peat if Cairns lose another GF series?"

Grand Finals series lost:
PER: 5
MEL: 4
BNE: 3
ADL: 3
ILL: 2
SYD: 2
CNS: 2
NZB: 1

Further to my post above, re the mini-table resolution. A post by XY in another thread alerted me to a possible error in resolving the Perth-NZ 6W-6L tie in the mini-table.

I used the points' differential for games among all 4 teams in the mini-table to resolve it. The correct resolution is to use the points' differential for only games between NZ and Perth. On that basis, NZ would take 4th and Perth would miss out, as NZ are +15 in games against Perth.

This interpretation seems to be consistent with the old copy of NBL rules I have (2011-12 version), which are unlikely to have changed in this regard. They state:

61.2. Final Placings at the End of the Home-and-Away Season
61.2.1. Positions on the ladder will be determined by the ratio of games won over games played.
61.2.2. Should two or more teams be tied on game winning percentage at the conclusion of the home and away fixture, final placings shall be determined by the win/loss ratio in only those games played between the tied teams.
61.2.3. Should there still remain a tie; rankings shall be determined by the difference between the total points scored for and against each team in only those games played between the tied teams.
61.2.4. If teams still remain tied, rankings shall be determined by the points for over the points against percentages for the entire season.

Sorry for misleading.

Melbourne, Cairns, Illawarra and Perth still control their playoff destinies. If they win their remaining games, or game in Illawarra's case, then they WILL make the playoffs.

NZ and Sydney would need to win their game AND have other results go the right way in order to make it.