Injuries create the winners

Motum doesn't get injured and 36ers go further that year

Martin doesn't get injured and do Perth sack imports

Woodside and Stockton doesn't get injured Dillard never arrives

The teams sitting 1 and 2 both have the same roster, or at least same imports, as they did at the start of the season.

Which is interesting because Ferguson and Jacobsen both have been underwhelming and/or playing a role rather than starring.
Likewise Harris and Holyfield have been inconsistent and underwhelming for imports.

Any other team would have (and did) cut at least one of their under-performing imports.

Adelaide were underestimated from the start though. I'm not saying i expected them to do this well, but they were certainly more capable than most predicted.

But the real reason for this season surely has to be Nathan Sobey. I think he's almost the best Australian two guard now.

@ Alexkrad

It astonishes me how underrated Jacobsen still seems to be in both a playing and team role capacity.

Injuries and the turnover of players are the biggest thing IMO.

Adelaide had injuries early with Creek and DJ, but since they've been back the injuries really have been minimal and not enough for major players to miss games. And unlike most other teams, Adelaide hasn't chopped and changed its lineup by sacking players and bringing in others. We started with Randle, Jacobsen and Ferguson as our imports and that's the way it has stayed.

The 36ers really have had the most settled line up this season and I think that's been a big factor in their run of form.

Brisbane did not recruit well enough for players that can create their own shot from the perimeter. Shaun Bruce and Reuben TeRangi had tough seasons and with that Brisbane was left with a stacked front court and it was left to Gibson and Craig to create their own shots.

At the start of the season Adelaide had the biggest "upside". But no one expected them to grow so quickly. And it's not like some players have made massive leaps. Sobey, for sure. But the way the teams works together and plays for each other is what has done the damage. Randle said in an interview before the season started that he'd be looking to drop his personal scoring output in favour of creating for a wide array of scorers, and like he seems to make a habit of doing, his words have become somewhat prophetic.

I feel the most sorry for Brisbane. I liked the look of their roster at the start of the season and thought they'd do pretty well for a club trying to build momentum from nothing. Injury's have done the most harm, but Beal being unsuitable is a blight. I thought picking up Beal was a smart move before the season started. For a new club to pick up a proven NBL performer seems a good bet. It definitely didn't pan out that way though!

I think it was obvious before the season started that Brisbane had some real weaknesses. Super unbalanced roster, with an overabundance of bigs, and two guards who have really dropped off the past couple of seasons production-wise. They might have had enough talent anyway with a healthy Bairstow, but it was always going to be an uphill battle.

Biggest deciding factors of the year for me though are either all the injuries, or Sobey improving two-fold to give Adelaide a 2nd gun to go with Randle.

Adelaide had upside, but a team like Melbourne certainly had the weapons to destroy everyone. Andersen was pretty solid at the most recent Olympics, for example.

I think Adelaide erased so many questions - Creek, DJ, Sobey for example. And Randle has been unrelenting.

Even on Sobey giving Adelaide that viable shooting guard, that's what I expected from Ferguson. Essentially their roles have flipped. Keys have been that Ferguson is no prima donna, and Sobey is miles from the headless chicken some of us expected.

In Brisbane, we expected Gibson to be rejuvenated (and he was just before he went down), and Bruce is a solid acquisition IMO. They had the import spot to burn on injury or imbalance. Seems like Beal and Te Rangi or whoever their SF is hurt a bit?

stability, consistency and a little bit of luck = success


Oh and not having Dean Demopolus as coach......

I thought Gibson would be better with PG duties his own again, but Brisbane signed Beal, another guy who seems to fade away when not solely running PG duties.

"Keys have been that Ferguson is no prima donna,"

Agree, this is a huge factor. Joey could have easily been conned into playing him for big minutes to try and run up his stat line and hence draft stock. The fact that he hasn't and the team has gone well sets a great precedent (from the NBL's perspective) to have players in a similar situation come over. You won't be treated like the superstar you have been during high school, but if you're willing to put your head down you can learn a thing or two about being a pro. I suspect his draft stock may have slipped due to less hype around him but i think he now has a better chance at a solid long term basketball career than plenty of his peers.

Back to the OP, I can't believe someone hasn't mentioned the refs yet!

Sorry, my OP comment above was based on the title of the thread and not the content (re. player recruiting).

CNS have what i believe is the most balanced squad (across all 11 players), but the compromise is no superstar. I think this season in particular has shown that you really need a go to guy who can consistently deliver.

If Trice was at the level of Randle or Ware, CNS would be up there with ADL. He has shown glimpses of this so would be nice if he could stay on and turn that into consistency. Similar to how Craig is now perfoming at a high level very consistently, after a few years of developing.

Hopefully CNS can retain McCarron too as he has a similar attitude to Sobey which you just can't buy.

First, I think you need a decent coach.
Joey has won before, as has Bevo and Gleeson. Fearne has always done well with what he's had. I assume DD was successful elsewhere. Jury's still out on Drewie, but he has Vickerman.

Stability. Adelaide's stars have been together for a couple of seasons now, and it shows. Look at the champion teams in recent years, and its the same story. (Obviously you need to have the stars first to keep them, no point keeping crabs.)
Even last year, it took Perth a while to really get going with Prather and Jawai.

Injuries. We see it all the time, teams getting gutted by injury, and its happened again.
I'm sure Youth helps with some things, but we've also seen young guys go down with Achilles injuries, etc, so its not a perfect solution.

What I find just incredibly interesting is how many teams this season opted to recruit massive front courts, and I'm not really sure that's worked out. Adelaide already had DJ and really just added some support. Perth went for a more athletic player in McKay.
But guys like Maric and Andersen have not had a major impact.

ok, maybe I should have said "I won't discount the possibility that DD was successful elsewhere, as I assume there had to be a reason MU hired him."