The Bullets aren't done yet either, 14-14 will probably be good enough. 13-15 might even do it.

Cairns are done. The only way I can see them sneaking into the finals is if Tony Mitchell goes on a crazy run for the next month and puts down 20 points a game. Otherwise Cairns just dont have the balls to finish out games against the big boys. Their last two games are home and away against Adelaide FFS.

CT, 36ers put the cue in the rack and let us have 2?

Trice plays consistently for an entire game?

Tony avgs 75 for the rest of the season?

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

p.s. everyone is still in the play off hunt.

Cairns 4th quarter chokes/and wobbles are an issue, the team lacks some mental steel, or Ferne being such a strong personality can freeze them as there afraid to take risks at back end of 4th. They have blown so many games this year, and Hawks almost pipped them this weekend to after being well behind.

I tried to post "Taipans = *shit emoji*", but emojis don't fly here.

Either way I think the Snakes are shit emoji

No one seems to want to put their hand up as a team to put in the "who's gonna play Adelaide in the GF?" discussion.
About a week ago I think it was ... when I checked the title odds, NZ were dead last, yet they look about as likely as anyone to me right now.

I love the fact that pretty much every (non-36ers) game feels tough to predict, although what I'm not liking so much is that the losing side of those games seems to result from one team playing like crap rather than the other team excelling. (I do realise that it's been a rotten season for injuries to key players though)

Podge, you've hit the nail on the head zeroing in on Trice. Back when he was unveiled Fearney was in the back of the Cairns post harping on about how he was going to give him the keys to the truck or take the wheel or some other shit analogy, building him up to be the second coming of our Lord and saviour, Scottie Wilbekin, hallowed be thy name.

Turns out he's got the basketball IQ of a border terrier, eagerly passes on every pressure shot he has the chance to take and is moodier than the waiting room at a menopause clinic.

He's not the point guard we needed this season, and with Gliddon going through a bad patch he's not capable enough to step up, lead the team and execute plays.

He's not the only reason we've little chance of making the playoffs but for me he's a big part of it.

That said we can still have a fun time disrupting Perth's shot at the finals before we drop out of contention, and isn't that what life's really about? Making Wildcats fans sad on the Internet?

I lolled hard CT. Great post.

Hahaha spot on CT

Hard for Tony Mitchell to score 65 a game from the bench. Put your imports on Fearne....

Interesting to hear your take on Trice CT. I too see a player with no confidence not willing to step up and be the man. Never better illustrated than his iso with Mattie Knight. He was obliged to blow by Knight and get to the hoop, anything going to the hoop would have drawn a foul or a kick out. Instead he fiddled and fiddled and fiddled. Knight knew what Trice was all about on that play ...get me back on my heels.... shoot an uncontested 3.....Knight wasn't having a bar of it.

i was looking back at some of his NCAA stuff and they are two entirely different players.
Form "No fear" "risk taker" to "should I ,yes,no, oh!!".
Got to be decisive.

Randle, Casper and Dillard have emerged as the top PG's in the league. And what separates them from the pack is "total confidence".
Sure they make mistakes and always have high TO rate but the one quality they possess that others don't is "Never in doubt".
Got to have the skill though to back it up. Maybe that is Trice's problem, ball handling.

^me

That is a very funny post CT.

@Matt's comment that "Cairns 4th quarter chokes/and wobbles are an issue, the team lacks some mental steel, or Ferne being such a strong personality can freeze them as there afraid to take risks at back end of 4th." is an interesting one as I feel Fearne is part of the problem in these ”chokes” for the very reason Matt put forward.

I also feel this could be part of Trice's problem and @Tom's comment “i was looking back at some of his NCAA stuff and they are two entirely different players. From "No fear" "risk taker" to "should I ,yes,no, oh!!".” makes me think that even more.

I'm not saying the players themselves aren't part of the choking problem or that Trice doesn't have any shortcomings, however in both cases (particularly the choking issue) I feel Fearne is at least an equal part of the problem, if not more so.

Run home to the finals updated after this weekend's games.

Number of wins required to get to 14/15 wins:

Ade: Already qualified top spot, now playing dead rubbers
Ill: record 12-12, 2/3 wins required from 4 remaining games (3 @ Home)
NZ: 12-12, 2/3 from 4 (2@H)
Mel: 11-12, 3/4 from 5 (2@H)
Per: 11-12, 3/4 from 5 (3@H)
Syd: 11-13, 3/4 from 4 (2@H)
Cai: 10-12, 4/5 from 6 (3@H)
Bri: 10-14, 4 from 4 (1@H)

Basically every team bar Sydney can only afford one more loss to make it to 15 wins. Sydney have to win all their remaining games. Brisbane can't get there, but could still get to 13 or 14 wins and have to rely on tiebreakers.

Everyone except for Sydney (6-6) and Brisbane (6-7) have a positive home winning record. If all remaining games go with serve to the home team, the final ladder should look something like this:

Ade 18-10
Ill 15-13
NZ 14-14 *
Per 14-14

Mel 13-15 &
Syd 13-15 &
Cai 13-15 &
Bri 10-14

*Wins tiebreaker over Perth
&Who cares in which order - you all miss out

Change only one result and anything could happen between second and seventh, which is crazy. Adelaide and Brisbane, each with only one home game left, could really play spoilers though final rounds. There is a chance that the 4th spot will go to a team with a 13-15 record based on tiebreakers.

In fact, if Adelaide beats Illawarra and NZ on the road, and Brisbane beats Perth and Illawarra on the road, and all other games go with home court advantage, by my calculation all seven teams other than Adelaide finish with a 13-15 record! Oh, please may that happen! Good luck working out the tie breakers in that mini table!

Brisbane should finish 11-17 in the table above, not 10-14 (which is their current record).

The parity we have seen in the league this year is truly remarkable! It feels like that at some point throughout the season, each time has been crowned 'the team to beat' whilst also being dubbed as 'no chance' at some other stage. It's great as a somewhat impartial viewer that each game has so much riding on it so we are seeing players not being able to take any games or plays off.

If you take a closer look, Cairns appear to be a better chance of playoffs than they would otherwise be given credit for:

Their schedule:

26/1 @ NZ: Cairns is 3-0 vs NZ this season.
29/1 vs Bri: Bris has been decimated by injury, they've had a gutsy win over UTD but realistically are playing for next season given they're now without Bairstow, Gibson, Beal and Petrie.
3/2 @ Ill: Cairns is 3-0 vs Illawarra this season.
5/2 vs Perth: Cairns is 1-2 vs Perth, 2 overtime losses where Perth scored on the final play of regulation, and a 2 point win.

Then 2 games vs a team who won't have a whole lot to play for, in the 36ers.

I'd say the Taipans are a strong chance to win 4 of those last 6 and make playoffs with a 14-14 record.

Of course it would then potentially come down to splits if they ended up on 14:

- Cairns has already stitched up the series vs Illawarra and NZ.

- Cairns has lost the split vs United, and realistically will lose to Perth (unlikely to win by 15 points or so that would be required).

We could very easily have a mini pool with any combination of teams which would be really interesting!

"Hard for Tony Mitchell to score 65 a game from the bench. Put your imports on Fearne...."

To be fair, the refs were playing their little game of calling soft fouls on new imports to let them know who's really the centrepiece of this league.

Noticed they did it with Stockton, then Cotton too.

Hopefully they (and Fearne) have got that out of their system and we can see him with some decent minutes and exciting plays.

yep, shit calls but he showed a bit much emotion/reaction for mine....looked risky and about to get exposed more by pesky gong guards.

My 2 cents about those final two Adelaide games: Joey's going to go hard, try to prove a point and go into the finals with a full head of steam.

Only way that changes is if he gets an injury scare on the team or someone does something stupid and he gets the jitters. Like if DJ makes the same crybaby face at Nate that Hollyfield tried Sunday afternoon (anyone else see that? Hilarious. I thought Jawai was going to eat him until Bevo took him off for his own protection).

But no way he racks the cue. He wants them going into their first home semi still smeared with Stephen Weigh's blood and buzzing like a fridge.

It's not about Joey, it's about the players.

Joey could play Randle, DJ, Sobey and Creek for 30 minutes if he wants to. He probably won't, but he could.

The point is that the whole team will have the semi finals in the back of their minds. Finding the extra 5% to be as focused as they have been through their winning run may prove difficult. It's just the psychology of sport. Nothing against the players, it's just human nature.

@XY, just a point about your scenario of teams winning their home games to close out the season; about 40% of games this year have been won by the away team. It's been that way since about round 7, from memory, so it's not all that likely to change.
;-)

Yeah, its possible that Cairns could remain "in the hunt" until that last round against Adelaide.

I like that Cairns play tough defensive ball, and lets face it, with Jawai as your centre-piece, you've got to excel at the Bump & Grind.
Cairns' problem is that the refs firstly hate Jawai, and secondly they're clearly under instructions to encourage a more up-tempo/ entertaining style of game.

At this point, I'm "tipping" that Cairns will finish 2nd, with 15 wins. Its not what I hope, but its my tip.
Hawks to finish 3rd, also on 15 wins, but having lost the split.

But I am tipping this season will go right down to the wire, the last game when MU hosts Perth.
Perth win, that should make 15 wins also, and they would finish 3rd with Hawks 4th.
Perth lose, they stay on 14 wins, and NZ would take 4th spot.