Ritz all the way.

Seems everyone is fit. Perth should win this in 2.
I say should, anything's possible. but if they lose this series (with their current squad) fingers will be pointed and questions asked.

How could you look at Jawai and say he is fit? ;)

This series is going 3 games Illawarra are too talented for it not to.

Perth have absolutely destroyed Illawarra on the rebounds in their 4 meetings this season. Totally pummelled them. And Ogilvy's stats show that he was outmuscled by the Perth bigs.

This must change. Ogilvy needs to compete on the boards and protect the rim. If he is at his best and makes sure Illawarra is consistently competitive inside the paint, then they’ll have a chance of winning this series. He’s the key man in this series.

But my tip is that Perth will continue to outmuscle Illawarra and bully their way to a season victory. Their size and power advantage all over the court is formidable. At the forward spot, Penney is one of the all time great scorers but he will be beaten on the boards like scrapper Greg Hire, and Wagstaff and Redhage. At power forward, Forman will have a tough time stopping Knight inside the key.

So in other words, I see no real reason to believe that Illawarra can turn around and change what's happened in the four meetings this season.

Having said that, Illawarra have been great at home- even in the two matches against the Cats, where they lead all game and the Cats stole it at the end with Beal brilliance and from memory, even a couple of threes to Greg Hire (?????!!?!). And they have superstar, match winning talent in Lisch and Penney. So my tip is that they will shoot the lights out and win game 2 at home.

Ogilvy does his best to hold his own. The Cats, like many other teams, target Forman inside. In a couple of our games this season we've been able to get him in foul trouble very quickly trying to guard Knight. How he & Cody cope will be pretty critical to the outcome. Ogilvy can't do it alone against the combo of Jawai, Knight & Jervis.

Lisch has only got loose against us once this season. No surprise that it was a game Damo was missing. He'll get his fair share whoever is on him, but it is Penney I'm more worried about in terms of someone exploding.

(but the Hawks have a number of players who can pile on points in a hurry, so I certainly don't mean to take them lightly)
All 5 guys need to be on their toes defensively against Illawarra. Which makes me wonder how many minutes Nate will be seeing. He should be able to dominate one end to compensate with being a liability at the other, but recent form tells me it might not work out that way.
I'm expecting plenty of Jervis minutes through the playoffs.

Perth have been all over Illawarra this season like a cheap suit on a life insurance salesman.

R3 Hawks 99 Cats 106. Basically game blown away in Q4. Penney & Jawai both fouled out. Beal and Knight all over the Hawks, but 43 to 25 rebounds with 15 OR's to the Cats. 22 3PM for the game.

R4 Cats 91 Hawks 62. Close at half time, but Hawks brains left in change rooms and Q3 blowout. Once again, they were smashed on the boards, with Olgilvy fouled out.

R6 Hawks 96 Cats 99. Once again, smashed on the boards giving up 22 OR to the Cats.

R16 Cats 95 Hawks 72. +7 to the Cats on OR's, second half fade away by the Hawks.

The Cats have been dominating the boards, and in particular the OR's, which always give a team a second chance of scoring. The Cats can take a chance by bombing it in from downtown and then hoping for an OR to finish off. For the Hawks to be a threat, they really need to stop the static game around the key. Perhaps the faster paced game would suit the Hawks better.

I would like to challenge Larry the Lounge Lizard to lift this finals series. Average 3.2 RB is not enough in 13 mpg. 2.6 on the road and 3.7 at home. But not just Larry, Oscar needs to lift as well and I also challenge him to go berserk like a Moonta miner looking for copper.

Hawks rebounding is: (H v A)

Ogilvy 8.9 v 8.0
Forman 4.3 v 2.7
Davidson 3.7 v 2.6
Lisch 3.5 v 3.6
Coenraad 3.4 v 3.8
Penney 2.9 v 3.0
Ellis 2.8 v 2.4
Martin 2.4 v 4.1
White 2.1 v 2.8
Weeks 1.1 v 1.4

Cats
Knight 7.5 v 8.6
Jervis 4.9 v 5.4
Jawai 4.0 v 4.5
Wagstaff 3.9 v 4.3
Martin 4.0 v 4.3
Redhage 2.9 v 3.9

The series will be won and lost around the boards. Win the boards and win the game. Stop the Cats from getting OR's and the game is already half won.

Cats deserve to be favourites in this series. But the in season results count for nothing as this point. Hawks were down Penney, and were nowhere near as good form wise as they are now. If they get going they could simply shoot them off the court. If the cats control the tempo then that hurts the Hawks but can't see this not going 3.

I think the United /Breakers series will go 3 but not the Wildcats/ Hawks. in 2.

Cats to dominate inside and on the boards again and take the series in 2 games. Hawks need a tough PF to compete with the Cats, Forman is not that player!
I would like to see the Hawks start with Davidson and Ogilvy on the floor, especially on Perth's home court.

As has been discussed elsewhere, Oscar presents problems at one end of the court, Knight can't guard him on the perimeter.
But on the boards, especially when they go small, the Hawks are trying to rely almost solely on AJ and he gets pummelled by the Cats battery of big men.
They give up a massive disparity in rebounds, and they hurt. Especially when Jawai/ Knight/ and Jervis get on song with their put-backs. That disparity amounts to a significant score difference.

Hawks try to pull it back from outside, but a 3 is still only 1 extra point, and the Cats do have plenty of guys that CAN guard the perimeter.
(Besides, whilst Knight may be slow, he's hard to shoot over without enough space.)

I didn't know Penny played for the Hawks, is that where she went after China? ;-)