Still have to hope NZ does not win both of their remaining games for your first scenario to come true.

No that would result in a 3 way tie with Hawks & Breakers in which Adelaide would come 3rd.

Losing the split with NZ is likely to hurt them badly.

Sorry, thought Illawarra had one more win than that, so yes, there could be a three way tie for third.

Can't see the Sixers beating Perth in Perth though. We have been their bunnies lately.

We need Melbourne to win both games to have any chance tbh.

Would Adelaide feel too bad with Finishing 5th though? After what they probably expected at the start of the year , 5th would of seen as pretty good.

Yes. They would have expected playoffs for sure after the past two years.

Yes they should definitely feel they under achieved if they finish outside the 4. Interesting season, but overall pretty bad, have never really shown they are a true contender.

Given the 36ers were picked to finish 7th with most betting agencies at the start of the season I think they would take finishing 5th and just missing the playoffs.

A few weeks ago? Probably not if Randle hadn't gotten injured probably expected to finish 3rd or 4th.

I Just hope Randle re-signs. I'd hate to think I've watched him play for the last time...

On court the 6ers would have to be dissapointed to miss the playoffs, but they have found a great import who is brilliant to watch seems to love the team / town and helps the team play exciting basketball, and I would think they've had their best attandances for many years.
They also got a new owner not long before the season and found a naming rights sponsor.

I hope they can get another win and make the finals BUT I wouldn't call the season a failure if they just miss out.

I didn't expect Adelaide to make the top 4- and neither did most people- so in my mind, finishing 5th wouldn’t be an under achievement at all.

In reality the 36ers got lucky and then they got unlucky - one of their imports got injured and they stumbled across a replacement who produced one of the best individual seasons I can remember. Whether Randle wins MVP will come down to whether he just missed too many games, like Childress did last year- but bottom line is he’s been easily the most influential player this season in the games he’s played and he almost single handedly dragged them into the top 4. And then they got unlucky- because their league dominating superstar managed to sustain an injury at the worst possible time.

Success is relative to expectations.

I bet you that the majority of Townsville's fans consider this season a success, and the majority of Cairns’ fans consider the season a huge failure- despite Cairns winning a few more games than Townsville.

Will still be disappointing to finish 5th, regardless of the pre-season expectations. But I'd feel a lot better about it if we re-signed Randle for next year.
If he leaves and this is the only season we got to see what he could do, 5th is a very disappointing outcome.

Im actually surprised Randle hasnt signed yet. I know Adelaide would announce it to the world if he had and after that piece a while back about how much he admired Joey I just assumed that would hit the day before the annoucement. I think Sydney is the one most likely to pursue him.

I hesitate to offer a view on the 3-way tie scenario but I thought that most likely results in Illawarra 3rd and 36ers 4th?

Illawarra are 4-0 and +70 points against NZ
Illawarra are 1-2 and -19 points against Adelaide
NZ are 2-2 and +7 points against Adelaide

In the 3-way scenario, the mini table would be Illawarra 5-3, Adelaide 5-3, NZ 2-6.

So 3rd and 4th would come to points' differential between Adelaide and Illawarra in the 3-way mini table. From the above, Illawarra are currently +51 and Adelaide are currently +12. So I think Adelaide would need to beat Illawarra by at least 20 points to take 3rd in a 3-way tie.

Is that right?

The rules aren't really clear, except that yes NZ would finish 5th in the event of a 3-way tie.
Hawks and 6's would still be tied on 5 wins each, but at that point the rules are not clear whether they go to the points advantage because of the 3-way, or whether because it is then only two they drop back to the 2-team advantage.

Adelaide's best chance is that MU put away NZ twice, then suit up Randle for the final game and hope the Cats, with nothing to play for, rest players, run their bench, and are otherwise half-assed.

If Townsville didn't shit the bed and give up the last 9 points of the game, then got flogged in overtime, we'd probably be playing Illawarra for a spot in the Playoffs on Friday.

"Given the 36ers were picked to finish 7th with most betting agencies at the start of the season I think they would take finishing 5th and just missing the playoffs."

Clubs don't set their goals on what the bookies think! Adelaide finished 2nd and 3rd the past two years, not making the playoffs would be seen as a failure and so it should.

I think FIBA rules are pretty clear. It first goes to win/loss record between the 3. Where 2 teams have the same win/loss record it goes on the games between those teams. Adelaide would win the hypothetical 3 - 1.

Internally, Adelaide's players will be disappointed if they miss out. Of course. Joey Wright will see it as a failure. Of course.

But that doesn't mean that rationally, relatively objectively that their season is a failure.

Without Randle (ie: How they started the season) they simply do not have a top 4 level roster in this year's NBL. With Randle they're borderline.

They lost me very early on with their import choices after seeing what rosters other teams were putting together. They really put together a mediocre team compared to last seasons. Thankfully things turned around when Randle arrived, BUT i just cant figure out what they were thinking with Mcnial and Ebi as the original choices. Was never going to make the playoffs and that shouldve been the goal in the offseason. Again has been worth going to and definite interest once we got lucky with Randle though.

We'll have to agree to disagree LV. I agree it won't have been a disastrous season if they miss playoffs, but it will have been an underachievement for a team with their talent, experience and continuity.

LV with Randle they are in the 4, I dont know who misses out, but they are in.

razor - I think you're right.

NBL Media Guide from 2012-13 states "If teams are tied at the end of the season, ties will be broken by the head-to-head record of the tied teams, if possible.
Teams that finish the season tied in win-loss and tied on head-to-head will be separated by points differential in games played only between those tied
teams. Teams that still remain tied will be separated by total points for divided by total points against for the entire season against all opponents, with the
highest percentage winning the tiebreaker."

So Adelaide would get 3rd, regardless of points' differential, if they win this Friday and finish in a 3-way tie with NZ and Illawarra.

Saw Randle running on a million dollar anti gravity machine at port power club. Like running thru the air. I swear I could almost sing!