9 dollars for the Hawks is great value.Also is this the firs time since 2010 the Cats aren't in the top two bookies odds?. It seems every year they are either one or two in the market.

Hawks worth a flutter at $9 I reckon. If anyone can make it happen Bevo can.

Illawarra were $15 a little while ago so I had a flutter on them and United at $6, figuring they were the two value bets.

Even at $9 Illawarra are still good value imo.

NZB - $3.6
Syd - $4
Perth - $4.3
Melb - $6
Cairns- $6.5
Illawarra - $9
36ers - $10
Tville - $26

NZB about right. Sydney, Perth, Melbourne and Cairns a bit too short. I think Perth should be alright, but not at NZB level, and Kings are quite unproven. 36ers should be a touch longer. Hawks in to $6 IMO - rejigged roster, but solid coach and team-first import.

I'd keep question marks over Sydney and Melbourne until we're a few games into the season. Both should be interesting though.

agree Isaac, Sydney and Melbourne have decent players it's just a matter of how they gel.

putting question marks over Sydney and Melbourne, but not illawarra? Really I don't think they've done much more

LV, you've made a few comments about the Cats risk of having little backcourt depth yet no mention of the Hawks having Demos and White as their back-ups.

Illawarra's the only one that stands out as obvious value to me, and Perth the only one that stands out as poor value. 36ers might be a touch too short at $10 too- should be $12 or $15.

The rest seem about right.

We’ll know so much more once we see all the new imports and new players. For United, I can’t wait to get a look at Holt. And Majok will be important too- he’ll need to play 4, but all the reports I read called him a Centre. Makes me wonder if, like Perth, we have 3 of them....

Yes Chalmers you're right, an injury to Martin has potential to be catastrophic for the Hawks. He’s the only true point guard on their roster.

The difference is, in this discussion anyway, that Perth are right up there with the favourites while Illawarra is rated behind the pack.

Any injury to any starting player on any team has the potential to be catastrophic. The league is close enough as it is, and the small salary cap plus the points cap can be restrictive for making mid-season replacements.

My point is though, the assessments and what-ifs you are making to one team can be applied to everyone else, but you aren't so I think your critical thinking is based on what you hope happens.

All teams might have question marks and weaknesses, but that doesn't mean all question marks and weaknesses are equal.

Also, take Alex Loughton out of Cairns and they've still got Wortho, Tragardh and Burston. Will Loughton start, or Wortho? Who knows.

putting question marks over Sydney and Melbourne, but not illawarra? Really I don't think they've done much more

They've kept a solid core: Martin, Demos, Coenraad, Forman, Davidson.

They've added a strong centre in Ogilvy and great guard in Lisch who understands the NBL. Then they've added a veteran in Penney who's played everywhere and is going to keep defenders from sagging - again, he knows the NBL. He's not going to struggle to fit in. And then Ellis and White have played NBL before - they're not hapless rookies. They don't have a rookie coach (Melbourne), they don't have imports who've never played NBL (Sydney, Melbourne). Lisch is import impact with local understanding which I think is really valuable in this league. And they have an import spot spare which we've seen is valuable in the past.

If Martin is out, Lisch can play point. Demos and White can harass other guards - they have ample teammates to pass to. Almost every player on that team is going to rain threes, leaving Ogilvy wide open. I wasn't sure about Ogilvy at first, but he was very motivated and active against Cal. He'll get to the line a lot.

Hate to jinx, but Illawarra at that price reminds me of when I got the Dragons for $9 in their championship year. Elite coach, good locals plus imports still to sign at that point. At that price, you aren't assuming a championship, you're looking for value. Sporting Bet had them at $15 the other week - insane.

"Also, take Alex Loughton out of Cairns and they've still got Wortho, Tragardh and Burston. Will Loughton start, or Wortho? Who knows."

And now you're using frontcourt depth to try and solidify a point about the Cats backcourt? If the Cats take out Redhage, they've still Knight, Wagstaff, Jervis and Jawai. What does that prove?

The point is (again) that by saying "the Cats are at risk because what happens if their plane crashes and they all die so therefore I really can't see how they will be favourites" can be applied to every team so you need to weigh up all the pros and cons, not apply a best case scenario to one while using a worst case scenario for another.

Chalmers.

You said "any injury to any starting player on any team has the potential to be catastrophic". I was merely using one example (of many) to counter that. Do you think Fearne would lose sleep over Loughton's absence (or Wortho) the way Gleeson would if Martin missed? Of course not.

Perth doesn't deserve to be $4.30 in my eyes. For several reasons, this being only one of them.

And again, you have not showed any inconsistency on my part. When comparing Perth and Illawarra I never said The Hawks depth wasn't a problem and Perths was, all I said was that Illawarra are value at $9 where as I wouldn't touch Perth at their odds.

Illawarra have a well balanced roster, with an improved inside game, their main risk is Ogilvy with no one to cover his interior presence.
Melbourne might not have enough inside scoring and D, and Cairns look too heavy at forward /centre.
Hawks approach to build a roster that can score with ease gives them a great shot at taking on NZ and Perth. Sydney will improve but don't think they are $4 chance, Hawks chances at least as good as Kings.

Hawks at $9 is awesome odds, even with an injury they have a import spot up there sleeve! Perth at $4.30 is cheeky, more like $8 but gamblers will play the odds of household names and think they are hedging bets. Hawks and even Kings for mine from a betting point of view.

Scarp kings didn't realize they were so short. Having said that if childress is fit and they start rolling that could be great value come 5 rounds in ahhh betting!