very much in the balance - both teams finals have started early - would not predict either being a lock at this stage.

Adelaide has already lost the split, so reverse your order on those predictions.

Correct - Perth at greatest risk now ..

I think Perth will still make it actually. Gleeson wouldn't have been happy with their defence on Friday night and I don't think they'll be that bad again, or at least won't be too often.

Melbourne I am not so sure. And with Adelaide its a wait and see how DJ fits back in.

Im interested to know if people still think Gleeson is a good coach?

On paper right now, it's 50/50- Adelaide has the easier run but Melbourne has the split, and one less loss.

In Melbourne’s favour is continuity. Remember how well Adelaide were playing and when Motum joined they went on a losing streak? Sometimes roster changes can have a bad short term effect. Adelaide is running the risk of messing with a good thing by adding someone at this stage. I like the balance they have with Petrie, Schenscher and Motum- it’s been working lately. DJ is a tremendous individual talent, but it remains to be seen how he mixes in with that group.

And don’t discount Perth from this conversation. They are missing Knight- that’s big. Last time Knight got a couple of Melbourne players in foul trouble early, in fact Perth’s rebounding and interior work has previously worried Melbourne. Based on the 3 games to date, there’s not much in this matchup at all, and Perth just got significantly weaker in one area where they previously exposed Melbourne. If Perth lose, all of a sudden they’re 12-8 and with Melbourne and Adelaide both conceivably heading towards 15 or 16 wins and with Melbourne getting the split, Perth aren’t safe either.

But if Perth do win Wednesday, then they’re 98% of the way there - the odds of them missing the 4 would become almost fanciful, if they jump to 13-7, and Melbourne drop to 10-11 with Perth having the split.

Perth are 12-7, so we basically need two wins out of 9. I don't think we deserve to be in a slip to 5th conversation yet.

If Perth win two of nine they'll finish 14-14 and quite possibly miss the playoffs. If they go 3-6 they should make it, and 4-5 will definitely get them in.

I agree them missing is an outside chance, but if they lose on Wednesday the pressure just rises a little bit.

LV - Motum, Jamar and Crawford vs DJ fitting the group are not the same issue. Dj was with the club and those players for a few years and then there is last year. He will slip in fine and maybe be better. He is the best fit and needed to support Schensh so I don't think anyone is worried at all. Couldn't be a better scenarios in these circumstances really..

I wouldn't get too excited if I was a Perth (12:7) fan. Perth's run home:

Melbourne (H)
Townsville (A)
Cairns (A)
Breakers (A)
Kings (H)
Taipans (H)
Breakers (H)
Sixers (A)
Townsville (H)

Perth have lost away at Townsville, Cairns and Breakers. The Townsville/Cairns will be a tough road trip. If Melbourne pull a win, then it is possible Perth could be 12:11 in the near future.

Kings at home should be a gimme. Taipans at home will be hard even though they beat them early in the season. The Breakers beat them at home in R1 so don't expect an easy game. The last game is probably a gimme. Crocs will be broken, although they might want to go out with a bang.

Perth might slump to 13:15 and it would be good-Knight. More than likely, they will finish up 15:13 or 16:12

The Sixers won't have the split on Perth and Melbourne, but Melbourne need to get a win by about 8 to get the split on Perth and possibly steal 3rd spot.

It's going to be a very exciting end to the season

I dont think missing the presence of Knight will be too much of a factor against Melbourne. Melbourne dont like to make their way in the paint too often so as long as Perth defend the perimeter well and crash the boards they'll take care of business.

I'm still confident Perth wont miss the playoffs, they still have 5 games at home and I can't see them losing more than 2 of those. Wollongong have gone to the wire against 36ers and NZ in recent games and are going to play a big part in who makes the 4th spot.

Perth are safe, yet still can make the top 2, so no convo here about whether they make it or not. Cairns is fairly safe but I reckon Melbourne might just sneak home. That game earlier in season in Adelaide will get them there

@Jack- incorrect- If Melbourne beat Perth they will get the split. They don't need to win by 8.

@ Anon- Yep, DJ's been in Adelaide for years. But has he played with Motum? DJ was the man, now Motum’s the man. Will there be enough ball to go around? What about the defensive end- neither are renowned defenders. I’m not sure you can brush questions like that under the carpet just because DJ’s been with Adelaide before.

Perth are 2 -1 and +5 v Melbourne so United need to win by 6 or more to claim the series

Adelaide need to beat Perth by 21 to win their series

Sorry, my mistake, Melbourne are up 230 -225 total so indeed Melbourne just need a win to get the series.

People talking about "Melbourne beating Perth."
Doh!
If that happens then Melbourne are in, and Adelaide are sunk.
Adelaide's ONLY hope is if Melbourne lose on Wednesday and finish the season on only 15 wins, giving Adelaide an outside chance of taking 16 and 4th spot.

Perth have a horror run this week, and frankly the only question against Cairns is how well the Cats can contain the damage. But if they can't win at least 4 out of 9 games, I'll eat my shorts.
Realistically their chances of taking 2nd are now shot, but I am hopeful they can hold 3rd, as I fancy their chances better against Cairns than NZ.

Sydney hold the cards as much as Melbourne and Adelaide do here.
Both teams play them twice. And they're a dangerous team. Childress and Madgen can get hot and beat Melbourne or Adelaide. Wouldn't surprise me to see them win at least 2 of those 4 games.

Horror week.... I suggest horror fortnight!!

Perth are at home to Melbourne Wednesday night but then fly to Townsville and play less than 48 hours later before then having to head to Cairns to play the following night.

Do they go home or do they go straight to Auckland because they have to be there for a Thursday night game before heading home to play Sydney (who'll be fresh from a weeks break).

Lots of traveling and not a lot of recovery time between games (especially if they go back to Perth between Cairns and NZ games).

That's possibly the toughest schedule of any competition when you are down two key players and have a player lacking game legs.

Yes, my bad on the maths. Melbourne just need to limp over the line to get the split. Melbourne are up by 5, but are down 1-2 at the moment.

Perth has not beaten NZB so far this season. Against the other teams, they currently sit:

Adelaide: 2-1 +21
Cairns: 1-1 +3
Melbourne 2-1 -5
NZB: 0-2 -21
Sydney 2-1 +36
Townsville 1-1 -7
Hawks 4-0 +62

Melbourne (H) - if they drop this then they are in trouble
Townsville (A) - genuine 50/50 game. Friday night games at Home (x7), average score is 83:72.4 (+10.6), Friday night away 81:76.3 (+4.7)
Cairns (A) - Loss
Breakers (A) - Loss
Kings (H) - Win - scores should be around 85:65
Taipans (H) - 60% Win. Scores should be around 82 each
Breakers (H) - 80% Loss
Sixers (A) - Loss - no debate required
Townsville (H) - 90% Win

More than likely, they will finish up 15:13 or 16:12. 17:11 would be a very good result

Adelaide don't want to be tied with Melbourne and Perth at seasons end as the internal points spread is heavily against Adelaide due to big point loss to Perth and the smackdown they got from United in Adelaide

It depends on who wins the Perth /Melbourne game this week as to what Adelaide needs from other results.

They will also need to beat Perth by around 25 points to claim that series if they do get locked up

There is a plausibility that 2 teams will be tied up at seasons end and a remote chance that 3 teams will be locked together.

As a Sixers fan I hope they make it but either way the end of the season is a lot more exciting than it seemed a few weeks ago and that is what the game needs.

Exactly, even if we dont make it the team has made some positive steps from the start of the season that will hopefully transpire into next.

How about this for a question...Jamar of the last 4-5 games - if he were to keep playing in that manner would you re-sign him for next season?

My bad, I claimed the split for the 36ers based on them winning 3 out of 4 games against Melbourne. Forgot to factor in the thrashing of the first game. How costly was that first game?

with the line up of the Sixers as it would stand with DJ coming back in, this is a team that should stay together and build, gain loyalty points, contract point reductions and establish a greater presence and membership. Potential plus even if Motum returns OS but eventual room and maybe the finances for a stud import or OS team connection. we'll have to wait and see..

I think it just got a LOT tougher...