36ers

Breakers I think could see Perth, Cairns or Melbourne maybe.

"Perth or Breakers depending on home court advantage"
Yes, its hard to see any other team getting close. Upsets are always possible, but barring injuries, Cats and particularly Breakers just look too strong this year.

And if the final comes down to those two teams, the H-A-H format ensures that the home team enjoys a massive advantage. (Perth-Auckland must be one of the longest road trips in the world.)

I've got the Breakers and Wildcats both finishing 20-8, and it's hard to see NZ not winning the title from there.

The more interesting question for me is fourth: I've got Sydney and Melbourne both at 14-14 and they've yet to play each other.

New Zealand easy....

Their closest contender would be the Wildcats but their offence is terrible.

Those dry spells of scoring remind me of the (bridesmaid) Rob Beveridge years, Daniels is OK but not Ennis.

What would be a great match up is the 13/14 Wildcats Vs the 14/15 Breakers.

"I've got the Breakers and Wildcats both finishing 20-8, and it's hard to see NZ not winning the title from there."

I can see Perth going 19-9, and The Breakers as high as 21-7. However I think the next two rounds will be telling. Perth have Sydney and Melbourne on the road, and The Breakers have Cairns and Sydney. Depending on those results my predictions could be reversed.

One thing I'm not clear on is whether teams are split on percentage, or does it still go on their H2H record? (And Percentage only if they are tied?)

It's easy to imagine The Breakers and Cats finishing equal on wins, but The Breakers have a 2-0 lead H2H, so the Cats would need to win both their remaining games to tie that up.

H2H in any tiebreaker.
Then points differential.

Actual percentage for all games is the final tiebreak if I recall correctly.

I think Perth will be worried if they have to play United in the first round.

My guess is NZ will win it.

XY - your memory is spot on. According to the most recent online version of the NBL Media Guide, which dates back to the BA run league. Haven't heard of any changes to the format in the last 2 years.

Home court will be crucial.

You would think whoever finishes 4th would be out of contention after the first major round.

Whoever finishes top has a distinct advantage and I would argue that looks like the Breakers.

They have two more games against each of the Crocs and Hawks. Probably safe to assume 3 or 4 out of 4 for them. They are 1-1 against the Sixers and with two more games could be 1 or 2 more W's.

They lost to the Kings on their home court, but with 2 more games left, might drop the Boxing Day game, but should get the 4th game. They have one more home game against Melbourne and are 2-1, so should end up 3-1.

That leaves them to tackle Perth (currently 2-0) and Cairns (1-1) I think the home game will secure the series against Perth and they play them on the Sunday after a Thursday game, so the series might end up 3-1. Even if they lose 0-2 I think they will get the split there as they are +21 at the moment so can afford narrow losses.

Cairns in Cairns on Sunday will be the crucial game IMO. They meet in the final game, but if NZB can get the win against Cairns on Sunday, I think they will finish top.

I think it'll be NZB to lift that trophy this season.

NZ is my tip- Glad I backed them when they were $8.00.

Perth and Melbourne also a strong chance. Cairns are outsiders.

Sydney and 36ers not completely out of it, but a long shot.

Townsville and Hawks can forget it.

Hawks to upset some teams in the final make the makeup of the final 4....not make it, but could be a factor in who makes it !

I have high hopes for The Wildcats. Daniels is getting better, and better utilised, every game, their bench is really stepping up, and they still have Hire to come back.

However it is very hard to see them going past The Breakers. The Cats have usually enjoyed a strong home-court advantage, but have met their match in The Breakers. They won there last year when The Breakers were not at their best, but in the two times they've met in the Grand Final the Cats lost all three games in NZ.

Whilst its bit anticlimactic to have such one-sided playoffs, simple fact is that The Breakers do the hard work during the season to earn their home-court advantage.
In the opening game of the season, The Breakers were ready to begin their campaign for a 4th Ring, and the Cats just weren't. That loss pretty much torpedoed their H2H record right there.
They can still aim for outright 1st place, but giving up 102 points to Townsville and a soft loss to Melbourne don't help.

Don't think hca bothers perth or nz, it helps. Nz won here, perth lead over there and i dont see a reapeat performance if it did come to the gf. Keep saying it and i always will, if we had a fit d martin, would have been differnt! + cj, killed us with the dagger threes! Still will be happy with goin to the big dance again and having that chance to go back to back!

all depends on who gets top. my money is on breakers and personally I hope they win.
I don't mind the cats but its like watching one of the Williams sisters in tennis make every grand slam final. after a while it becomes a bore unless of course you like them. would be great to see cairns v breakers or breakers v Sydney/Melbourne but I don't hold my breathe for that one

in the current 'best of three' series....who ever ends up on top will win the title.
have said for a long time that NBL should be 'best of five' for grand final series.

@formosa,

... NZ did a three-peat, but it's Wildcats that are like watching the Williams sisters in the final??

You should be hoping for Cairns/Melbourne GF then!

Anyway, halfway through, starting to get hard to see anyone but NZ taking this out. Injuries always the great unknown, of course.