I'm underwhelmed by FIBA's wording here: who will finish where if Lithuania win by more than 8?

(There's too many 'can's in their scenarios; be more assertive FIBA! 'Slovenia MUST win by x or lose by less than y'; 'if Lithuania wins by more than 8 they WILL finish top' etc)

We were told to keep the articles simple, but the scenario is something like this::

Slovenia wins = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins by 1-4 = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins by 5-8 = Slo, Lith, Aus
Lithuania wins by 9-13 = Lith, Slo, Aus
Lithuania wins by 14+ = Lith, Aus, Slo

The above is if we beat Angola. If we don't it's simple:

Slovenia wins = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins = Lith, Slo, Aus

The best bet to advance as deep as possible is we throw the Angola game.

That makes Lithuania fight for the win so that get the #1.

Going straight to the TAB. $100 on Angola to win.

Is this dumb?

It is so un-Australian to throw a game or lay down like Sally and I hate the thought.

However the potential benefits are almost too irresistible to ignore.

Lithuania wont want to win by between 5 and 8 then, but does that score change by how we score against Angola?

We want to play USA in the semi-finals right? Doesn't that mean that finishing 3rd is actually better than 2nd?

Means we would play Ukraine/Turkey/DOM then winner of D1/C4

Dear Lithuania. Win by 10.

Sincerely, Australia

If Aussies come up against US and lose, do they get another chance ???

MACDUB.

That is the value bet of the year.

Anyone know what Angola is paying.

I like the multi Angola all up on Lithuania.

No, Australia cannot come top.

The equation is simple. We want to wish for:

1. A loss to Angola, with Lithuania to win; or

2. A win to Angola, with Lithuania to win by 8+.

Any other combination of results, we finish second and play against the US in the quarter finals (if we get there).

Obviously 1 above makes the equation easier for Lithuania - therefore tank away Australia!

Angola paying $5.50 for the win over there.

Surprised the TAB NZ haven't removed the betting options.

Angola now paying $7 at Centrebet. Who is loading up on Australia?!

I went to bet at $5.10 and my bet was rejected because they'd put the price out to $7! Ha. Fine by me!

Knowing my luck, I"ll bet on Angola to win and Australia will probably somehow win.

I mean think about it, it must be fairly hard to purposely lose a game.

Can't really purposely miss shots.

Just have to play matador defence I suppose.

We have been playing matador defence at times anyway (cue Andersen jokes...)

How to lose: rest 1-2 starters for the next round, overplay the bench, play a style that doesn't suit us, rely on Angola's need to win.

Still $7.00 on centrebet. Not normally a betting man but sheesh that's the best value bet since Fine Cotton.

Thanks paul - I find that explanation simpler in many ways than the original. :)

Angola played amazing against Slovenia. Slovenia did implode a little, and Angolans are always arguing amongst themselves.

Lithuania tried to run up the final margin against Korea to take care of any tie breaker situation.


We should rest key players, Ingles, Andersen, Baynes, Delly and give the bench an opportunity and whatever happens, happens.

Lithuania will beat Slovenia. Slovenia wouldn't lose by 9-13 they will let the game blow out and lose by more to finish 3rd, if Australia beats Angola.

I wonder if there's an Angolan hoops forum where anyone's suggesting they tank to avoid a meeting with the US. After all, those countries have some history...ask Charles Barkley

AUS have a great chance of getting to top 4.

I might be wrong here but I see the path as:

Australia vs Turkey round of 16 - could argue that Aus would be favourites.

Australia vs. Slovenia or Lithuania in Quarters - already beaten LTU and Slovenia rematch is very winnable.

That would get the Boomers into the top 4? Or are there multiple games in the quarters? I.e. a round robin?

Believe you are on the right pathway Macdub.

Depends where we finish in our pool...and that's undecided (and somewhat out of our hands)

There's still quite a few options open involving NZ, Turkey, Ukraine, Finland or Dominican Republic in first round and then USA, Slovenia or Lithuania in the QFs.