Alright, Round 8, here we go!
With the Men's side seriously congested, and the Women's side unpredictable, this makes for some important Round 8 clashes.
It has been a bit quiet the last few weeks, lets hear some thoughts on where this season is headed.
Women's
South (3rd 5-2) v North (2nd 6-1)
In the Women’s match of the Round, South and North clash at Marion, in a game that may play a role in head to head results come playoffs.
The Panthers have looked good in the first part of Season 2014, with Janae Howard leading the league in scoring with 25ppg, and Jess Mahony leading the league for assists with 7.9apg.
However teams have had success against the Panthers by shutting down the star duo, with Howard being foul prone, and Mahony turnover prone. Norwood set the blue print to beat the Panthers, and I expect North to follow it.
North have been the second best team in the league, losing only to the first placed Flames, but soundly beating all other on-comers.
Jo Hill has been a standout as we have become accustom to, but it is the constantly improving play of Jamie-Lee Peris, leading the league in rebounds with 11.9rpg that has been the cornerstone of their defence.
The Rockets boast far more experience and depth than the Panthers, and whilst they won’t contain Howard and Mahony as well as the Flames did, the Panthers have no defensive answer to Peris and Hill.
Rockets by 9.
Sturt (5th 4-3) v Centrals (10th 0-7)
The Sabres were upset by the 'around the mark' Bearcats last round, whilst the Lions were once again pole axed by the Rockets.
Natalie Novosel has had an immediate impact on the Sturt outfit, leading the team in scoring and ranking 3rd in the league with 21.3ppg. Lucy Spalding has been Sturts other standout, and with the inclusion of Marino you would expect the team to continue to improve. However last round, it was the complete opposite. Sturt will need to find some chemistry if they seriously want to challenge the Flames.
The Lions are struggling, with only Wedding and Herriman providing any resistance. But it is futile. Centrals will go winless this year, and will struggle to see 60%.
Sturt by 50.
West (7th 3-4) v Southern (8th 2-5)
The Bearcats showed last week that they are capable of hanging with the top 5 sides, handing Sturt their 3rd loss this year, on the back of a fourth quarter surge.
West have seen a complete team effort in most games this year, with Shierlaw their best, but finding good support from Langenbrinck. West are boasting a percentage of 104.25%, mainly due to their close losses, dropping a couple of winnable games at the post.
The Tigers have now dropped 4 games straight, after going down to the Warriors by 5 last round. Southern have seen contribution from Fisher, Fawcett and Quintrell, but the teams carelessness with the rock, throwing a ludicrous number of turnovers is costing them dearly. Now that their import has been deported, it will be time for some other players to step up and fill the void that Barber has left, regardless of her off-court issues, on-court she was a big positive for the side.
The Bearcats have won two in a row, and have the momentum, and match up well against the Tigers. West by 12.
Woodville (6th 3-4) v Norwood (1st 7-0)
Norwood going for win #29 in a row, that surely has been to be some record?
The Warriors have been valiant in defeat, rolling with most sides before being overrun at the final siren. Woodville have been firing on the back of Carmen Reynolds (20.6ppg), Katherine Perkas, and Ashleigh White. Like the Bearcats, the Warriors have posted a 104.84%, from being competitive in all games.
Norwood are untouchable at this point in time, with contenders North and Forestville already dispatched, and Sturt looking shaky, the championship could already be on the way to Mars again. With a percentage of 167%, not only have they been winning, but winning easily. The Flames roster has been rotated very well, with Amy Lewis playing the leading role with 19.6ppg.
The Warriors would be keen to break the streak, and measure themselves against the title favourites, but my book says the Norwood are 26 points better.
Forestville (4th 4-3) v Eastern (9th 1-6)
The Eagles went down to Norwood last week by 13 points in what would be considered a reasonable performance. The Mavericks were pasted by the Panthers, in what will feel like groundhog day this Saturday night.
I expect Borrego to clock minutes this week, in a game that reduces the likelihood of injury, and doesn’t match her up against quality players. The Eagles have seen contribution from Johnson, Fergus and Defrancesco, but seem to be lacking the ability to take that next step to true contender status.
The Mavericks have had patches of good, but more patches of bad, in a season that will likely only net them 3 wins total. Hooley has been huge on the boards with 11.4rpg, however no consistent offensive options, inexperience and lack of depth, meant season 2014 with always going to be challenging for them.
The Eagles will win, and I expect them to put the boots in like they seem to do against cellar dwellers. Forestville by 44.
Men’s
South (7th 4-3) v North (9th 2-5)
Don’t let the South’s 7th place fool you, with the ladder tied on wins all the way up to 3rd place, they are certainly in the mix with this seasons top sides. South defeated the struggling Mavericks last round, whilst the Rockets lost again to the improving Lions side.
Shane Boal is having a career season, logging his best stats since before 2005, with 20.6ppg and 6.4rpg. Not to mention Boal is having his second best season in shooting percentage as well. This production has a lot to do with the acquisition of Bradley Reid, averaging a double-double of 15.3ppg and 10.1rpg. South have proven their ability to roll with the best this season, and now enter a crucial patch of games to keep their head above the line into the back half of the year.
North have been struggling in Season 2014, and their loss to the Mavericks at home in Round 6, typifying their year. North have struggled to put points on the board, averaging only 65.4ppg scored, and giving up 77ppg against. Some interesting stats when looking at previous years production from their core group -
Vasiljevic: 2014 – 13.1ppg / 8.9rpg ... 2013 – 17.9ppg / 10.4rpg
Franceschinis: 2014 – 3.6ppg / 3rpg … 2013 – 13ppg / 5.1rpg
Rowe: 2014 – 5ppg / 2.9rpg … 2013 – 9.8ppg / 4.9rpg
Mapunda: 2014 – 7.9ppg / 6.9rpg … 2013 – 13.2ppg / 7.8rpg
From 2013 to 2014 that is a loss of 24.3ppg scoring and 45% down, and 6.5rpg and 23% down. That is some serious drop off in production, and I would expect some drastic changes need to occur for the Rockets to regain their step.
South have been the better side, and match up well, but as much as I keep wanting to write the Rockets off, I find it almost impossible to do so. I am hesitant to go this way, but the I will say the Panthers by 11.
Sturt (6th 4-3) v Centrals (5th 4-3)
Another crucial match up, which may have season defining implications.
The Lions haven’t had the best start to the season, but since half time of their match up with the Mavericks in Round 5, they have been a completely different side, knocking off West in Round 6 then North in Round 7. The star duo of Chris Clausen and Kyle Miller have done a bulk of the work for the Lions, but it is the improved play of role players Williams, Joyce and Atkins that has been the difference in the way Centrals have competed.
The Sabres have been riding on the back of Dexter Moore, who is coming off an enormous 48 point game, but loss, against the Bearcats. Tim Klaosen continues to be pivotal to the Sabres success, as without him sides simply lock on to Moore, and force the Sabres to extract points from shooter Hamish Burns and other role players not known for their bucket ability. Sturt has lost to contenders in West, Woodville, and the invigorated South side, and only just scraped past the underperforming Flames in Round 1 overtime.
Based on the Lions finding momentum, and knocking off West in Round 6, makes me believe that Centrals are playing the better ball at the moment. Centrals to win by 8.
West (2nd 5-2) v Southern (4th 4-3)
Southern look to hold on through a rough patch of the season, whilst missing their two best players and facing a tough stretch of games, losing to top side Woodville last Round, and facing the second placed West this Round.
The Bearcats look poised to make a serious run at the title again this year, with big man Blake Truslove having a dominant season, with 13.9ppg and 15.3rpg to lead the league in rebounding. Add into the mix league leading scorer Jason Dawson whom from deep has been bad, shooting 10 from 38, but inside has scored 34 from 73. What West have been missing is an outside shooter, with Braithwaite struggling, but he has started to find his range in Round 7.
Southern have been up and down, with good showings against the Lions, Flames and Eagles, but poor performances against the Warriors and the Rockets. Losing the duo of Johns and McDaniel, whom are their top two scorers with 13.8ppg and 13.4ppg respectively, significantly hampers their ability to compete, as was evident in their game against the Warriors. Codey Ellison is the key component to the team lifting to that next level, Ellison with a respectable 12ppg and 9.4rpg, however these stats haven’t improved since Season 2012, but his shooting percentage dropping from 45% to 35% overall, and 31% to 25% from 3.
I can’t see West dropping this game, but Southern are always dangerous and seem to pull off the unexpected wins. Bearcats by 21.
Woodville (1st 5-2) v Norwood (3rd 4-3)
In the Men’s Match of the Round, the Flames look to continue their rise by defeating the title favourite Warriors.
After a shaky start to Season 2014, the old limbs have warmed up and the Flames look ready to roll. On paper this unit is dangerous, but potentially lacking depth. Veterans Andrew Webber (12.6ppg), Keith Krause (10ppg) and Todd Matthews (10ppg) have been the crux of their game, with scorer Matthew Lycett (18.5ppg and 9.7rpg) providing some serious offensive punch. Shooter Ian O’Boyle has finally found his range against the Eagles, dousing Forestville with an exceptional first half shooting performance.
The Warriors have looked good, when not facing top tier competition, losing to the Bearcats and the Eagles, but have pasted all other competitors. Rumours swirling of internal discipline against sixers towel boy Daniel Sims don’t seem to have upset the apple cart, with solid wins over the Sabres, and Tigers. Alexander Starling has been their standout all year, averaging 18.9ppg and 10.6rpg though his game has cooled down over previous weeks. Luke Stanbridge is having his best year, with 12.7ppg and 7.7rpg, and key to their title hopes.
So that begs the question. Are the Flames top tier competition, or part of the pack that will be pasted? Im not sure the Warriors have championship chemistry, and with Darren Ng in doubt for the clash, and the Flames destruction of the Eagles last week, I will pick and upset and say Norwood by 6.
Forestville (8th 2-5) v Eastern (10th 1-6)
In a game that the Eagles must win to stay in touch with the competition for August, this spells trouble for the Mavericks, in what will be a relentless attack by Andy’s men.
Jake Rios sits in second place for the scoring title with 23.5ppg, a point behind West’s Dawson, and he will need to continue that output for the Eagles to fly. Trent Fildes has been exceptional for the Eagles, averaging 20ppg and 7.6rpg, on the back of some super hot shooting displays. Forestville have the personnel to compete during the finals, but need to find a way to stay within striking distance, for the inclusion of Adam Gibson to be worth while.
The Mavericks have really competed valiantly, even knocking off the struggling Rockets side. Curtis Scipio has been impressive, shooting19.7ppg at 49.5%, and whilst there have been some solid performances throughout the season, the side lacks depth and the players to consistently put up game defining numbers.
If the Mavericks pull off the upset, I think Andy would explode. Whilst nothing is guaranteed in this league, I simply can’t see the Eagles losing. Forestville by 33.