Plus minus is a rort

Just a quick message to all the Hoops regulars who rate + - as an effective way of measuring a players performance.

Today Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors
Timofey Mozgov from Denver had:
23 Points
29 Rebounds
3 Assists
1 Steal
3 Blocks

Yet scores -2 in + -

Same game, same team

Jan Vesely stats were
6 Points
3 Rebounds
0 Assists
1 Steal
1 Block

Yet scores +12 in + -

just letting you know + - is for losers who know nothing about Hoops

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Isaac
Years ago

You know you're a clown when you make grandiose statements about plus minus like this based on a solitary game and two particular players.

Anyway, Real Plus Minus is the new thing anyway.

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PlaymakerMo
Years ago

http://www.hoops.com.au/forum/34181-nba-advanced-metric-real-plus-minus/

Well said, Isaac.

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Anonymous
Years ago

I 100% agree with you. People use it to show how good an individual player is, but your +/- score is evenly affected by everyone else on the court. In reality, you have 1/10th influence over your own individual +/-

For some reason, these forums love the +/-.. its the only place I ever see it refered to.

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PlaymakerMo
Years ago

"I 100% agree with you. People use it to show how good an individual player is, but your +/- score is evenly affected by everyone else on the court. In reality, you have 1/10th influence over your own individual +/-"

That's not entirely true. It's difficult to succinctly explain, but essentially: having an influential player on the floor (or off for that matter) potentially impacts the game dynamic more than the '1/10th' you quoted because the performance of one player is dependent on virtually every significant variable imaginable.

In saying this, I know what you're getting at and it's worthwhile point to make. Hence looking at a single game +/- isn't particularly useful, especially without the proper context.

"For some reason, these forums love the +/-.. its the only place I ever see it refered to."

Long-term adjusted +/- scores are useful descriptive statistics. Isaac linked an ESPN article which illustrates how widespread the general concept has become.

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Anonymous
Years ago

Will the real plus/minus please stand up?

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Isaac
Years ago

For some reason, these forums love the +/-.. its the only place I ever see it refered to.

It's included in ESPN boxscores by default, for one thing.

but your +/- score is evenly affected by everyone else on the court

When that combination is on court for a period of time. At any given sub, that combination changes. Over time, you can get a picture of which combinations work or what players may be contributing to positive combinations.

No one has ever presented it as the ultimate differentiator.

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paul
Years ago

+- is best done with large samples. It is also worth taking note of in a single game where an individual or a small number of players are significantly different to the rest of their team.

However, no stat tells the story on their own, they really only signal what deserves further investigation to find the reason behind the stat.

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Anonymous
Years ago

The is why the nerds will have us believe they can coach NBA teams and that current coaches are obsolete.

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PlaymakerMo
Years ago

"The is why the nerds will have us believe they can coach NBA teams and that current coaches are obsolete."

They would be wrong. That doesn't mean the "nerds" are obsolete.

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Mick
Years ago

Please file this in "things everyone else figured out in 2010"

Reply #469140 | Report this post

Mick
Years ago

Adjusted +/- has been around for years, not to mention the scores of other variations that have followed, each aiming to reduce statistical noise and glean new truths.

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Captain Underpants
Years ago

Silver Linings Playbook

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Speed44
Years ago

While I agree +/- in one game is not helpful, over a season it can be quite a telling stat.

You only have to fish out Michael Beasley's +/- his last season in Phoenix, to see that over the course of a season, it shows why he dropped out of the rotation, and eventually was amnestied/bought out.

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Anonymous
Years ago

anon you are getting confused

+/- is a basic stat for n00b nerds on the interweb

the real shizz in advanced metrics is used by the backroom staff of all NBA franchises that the common fans would have no idea about

Reply #469332 | Report this post

Anonymous
Years ago

I like to use +/- whenever it makes Delly look good. Bit of a useless stat otherwise.

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Gordon Liddy
Years ago

Did Delly make the +/- showcase at the all-star weekend? He'd be a lock to make it next season you'd think.

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Pauly B
Years ago

Single game plus minus isn't always a great indicator of how an individual has performed but building up +/- data over several games does. Advanced stats are helping analyse players like never before and uncovering things well beyond the raw number. Embrace it or get left behind

Reply #469605 | Report this post

Gordon Liddy
Years ago

I wouldn't want to be left behind in basketball stats, that ends awful.

Reply #471462 | Report this post

Hoops

Plus minus is a rort

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