Needle in a hay stack stuff,the biggest problem in basketball today is the administration and lack of professionalism and it start at the top and goes all the way down. In the metro areas you could argue McKinnon, Sandringham, Ringwood and Hawthorn appear to be going in the right direction, country is a basket case, aside from Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo it looks like amateur hour.

Hawthorn for me is the pick of them all, their junior program has gone banana's easily becoming the best in the country in the 12's and 14's with now all other age groups (bar 20's & the 18's girls) being in vc. Now their Senior program is competing at high level big v as well, I only see positives for them from here.

Sandringham I'd also almost consider one of the big clubs but their juniors are very up and down with their consistency of constantly being around the top of vc year after year but theres no doubting their senior program.

Pakenham, of course.

McKinnon, and only if Council stop blocking their attempts to build a new stadium that will compete with the local Sports and Aquatic Centre tenanted by Oakleigh.

Hawthorn clearly the pick of the last 20 years for 'coming out of left field' - amazing growth. Waverley most improved over this time. Waverley were ordinary and have become a very good club.

I have noticed that at Altona they are bursting at the seams, they have built new courts I believe and as soon at they got them they were also full.

The western reagion surrounding Altona is exploding in the young tee age group and basketball seems very popular, they have come a long way IMO.

Corio Bay in the Country has four courts also bursting at the seams so they use satelite venues and their entry into the BigV is driving popularity and providing pathways similar to that of medium size Associations. Not a big boy yet, but numbers are quite good and growing.

The new courts built in places like Sunbury will provide opportunities for massive basketball growth should the basketball administrators stay on track, but without support of a local council to provide more courts you will struggle to grow regardless.

The biggest movers in the next few years will come from the fringe suburbs that are in the marginally seats.

The will get the facilities and will have the young popoulation to fill teams....bit like Eltham in the 80's - Dandy in the 90's these clubs turn into power houses pretty quickly due simply to the fact that huge population growth and facilities built by govment to support the growth....as long as they get reasonalbly well organised they'll be a force

This is in no way racist, but TW is spot on, so if we wish to identify hot spots in the future we may need to look at areas with big population growth especially where large placements of Sudanese refugees are located.

These areas especially, if supported by local governement as they seem to be, will be among the next basketball power houses, for sure...

I would presume this to be the case in other states too, not just in Victoria?

Werribee Devils.
Wyndham City is exploding and I believe they have approved expansion of the existing Stadium, with additional courts and a new 1500 seat or so show court.
They already have a strong program, think this could push them to next level.

The old clubs will still have a place but the balance of power will shift to these new clubs in key growth areas.

Its all a numbers game hence Dandy become so strong in a short space of time...population & facilities!....so don't expect the old same crew to be still the key power bases in 10 years time....the old clubs will still recruit well at senior level but in participation numbers/gov funding it will swing to the growth areas!

It will be interesting as urban clubs are stagnating or aren’t growing junior numbers at the crazy rates these urban fringe clubs are…… plus facility expansion is hard/impossible for a number of suburb clubs because of the lack of space or costs to acquire land is very high.

In 10 years time it wouldn’t surprise me to see the likes of Pakenham/Cranbourne/Werribee/Craigieburn etc looking to jump into SEABL with new big facilities and 1000's of juniors playing for them.

Werribee should try and make that a 2500-seat showcourt. If the NBL's increased games vision comes to pass they would then be a good chance to host pro games.

Agree Paul, surely any new showcourt should be built to a minimum capacity of around the 2500 - 3000 mark, as an Australian standard?

Just seems to be common sense really...

@Anon...alto of it comes down to gov grants and requirements on public open space.

Alternatively, which clubs are on the decline ?
Using the same principles for the clubs on the rise, location/population growth, facilities, domestic competition etc, which clubs are on their way down ?
Or have overachieved ?
Or under achieved ?

So have any of he up and comers actually joined the elite yet? A few people here talking Hawthorn up - have they actually bridged the gap? Big money catchment for sure, and a big participation association but are they starting to win titles at VJBL championship level?

I like the observation about Ringwood and Hume, particularly the latter - my question is for Hume - why?

Coburg ?
Proud history, but declined in recent years.
Warrandyte, not really a growth area, or a decent facility, but have started to put together some decent junior and Big V teams, overachieved ?

Hume are still on the fringe of a growth area but changes in the population demographic hurt the junior numbers/participation & talent coming thru the ranks.
(Plus poor management haven't helped....if you look at them they should dominate Big V as only Nth West club in metro melb)

Hawthorn need to get better facilities before they are really in the discussion (hard to find the space in that part of Melbourne) plus some senior success in the SCM division might help aswell.

No mention of Knox? Still on the way down. Sacked anothergood coach I hear. 14/1 boys losing in Metro 1. U12 boys ggoing backwards. Coaches out of their depth. Maybe the coaches who have left did know what they were doing? As a parent I am concerned my 2 boys are not getting the learnings you'd expect from an elite program.

Been a long time Knox has not had 14s team in VC.
U12's and 14s boys coaches appointed by a woman has had agendas against some very good coaches and sacked them. The 2 guys doing the jobs got them because she liked the way they treated her children. They are way out of their depth - not their fault they give their all.
Pity the woman who sacked the good coaches is no longer around to answer for her poor judgment.

I'd expect some good things out of Hume especially with Mark Landells there. Participation rates amongst domestic clubs on the rise, and huge growth corridor. Don't see anything wrong with the above personnel how about the tiime effort and hours put in over the years. Lets see all the baggers put their time in.

knox= gone

Southern Peninsula YLW1 down 23-0 at quarter time and shot 12% from the field for the match. I cant remember too many teams that havent scored in a quarter especially at this level. Good on them for having a crack and not giving up.

Sthn Pen are obviously developing their juniors, which if I am correct is the whole idea of Youth League, sheep stations are for the other comps. The roster for the Sharks, oldest player was 17, average age 15. Happy is right, the girls fought it out right to the end and never gave up. Sthn Pen have a number of talented juniors who will mature over the next couple of years.

The youth league being under 23 age group has its positives, and could also have a detrimental effect as I see it, especially for those Associations looking at keeping players in the youth league beyond their use by date perhaps looking for wins.

This may be a separate topic also, but is related to how up and coming Associations best use their pathways to grow their junior talent I believe it is relevant.

Crucial call, to get it right, playing teenagers in the youth league is great to fast track them, but the balance needs to be correct. Get this right and you grow your top end, get it wrong and you risk two things:

1. Burn out, too many at the younger end, not able to compete, may lose confidence.
2. Block out, too many older players keeping the younger ones from getting opportunity to grow.

All you can ask from your kids is to give 100% and if your good enough you win.If you lose then you have no excuses as you got beaten by a better team on the day.