Tigers pulled a Houdini in nz the other night so Syd-den-knee will be a little more desperate for this one. Kings by 6

A great battle for third with two of our "favourite" coaches going head to head.
Sydney have the talent and pushed Perth last week but I have a feeling melb will get up in a close one

I am confident this is very winnable for the KIngs from this point at half time.
But only if Heal uses some common sense.

Goulding has 29 points with 40 seconds remaining in the second quarter! 51-51 at this point with Young and Madgen also having a big impact.

It's been doing it all season.
Pot luck if you ever get Live Stats.
Goulding heading towards a 50pt plus game. No other Tiger in double figures.
Did I say common sense?

^Agreed anon, nbl website a joke.

Kings' Twitter hasn't had a score since 3/4 time.
They are in the same predicament.

Disgraceful from the Kings.
Tigers are a one man scoring team.
Tigers had 3 major players on 3 or 4 fouls
and STILL they are going to win this.
Kiss the finals goodbye Heal!!
Too many non-team-players.

Disgraceful effort.

I expect them to lose that position by March 22nd.

Disgraceful effort from Sydney.
Awesome effort from Chris Goulding

Goulding MVP?

Young on Goulding?
That's a pretty smart move. A sacrifice for nothing.

How was it a disgraceful effort from Sydney? Goulding single-handedly won the game for Melbourne, as he has done countless times this season (in less emphatic fashion).

Given that the referees were having a free-for-all on foul calls, they couldn't be physical with Goulding, and he couldn't miss from distance.

The zones from Sydney were a mistake: they were awful, but Sanders and Madgen in particular worked hard to defend Goulding. Young and Garlepp generally looked lost defensively.

Jeez Kings fans are so fickle. Shut up and be happy that you're in the four. You won't be surpassed by Wollongong so be happy that you'll be in the playoffs. It's a whole new ball game then.

Looks like Anstey read my comments regarding tempo and quick decisions/first option in the halfcourt.

Woops,
Interesting how we all see it differently.
Young was slack and lazy on Goulding for a big portion of the game. He was too far away from him so many times and had that "less than 100%" effort again that we've seen a bit of this season.
My only sympathies for Heal are that he has to tolerate him or else... He can't possibly think he'll get back in the NBA.
Goulding was superb, another Tigers' MVP and a close NBL MVP also.
Heal for Bullets' coaching job? Surely not.

Heal is a joke of a coach. Amazing how many posters here can't see it. Routinely gets outcoached week after week and never makes the proper in-game adjustments. I hear about his having to coach with a supposed lack of talent - really??? A guy who should be a stud big man in Ogilvy, a great offensive player in Madgen and an NBA player in Young, not go mention a serviceable big man in Garlepp, a solid PG in Sanders and some good bench depth.

And yet he still has a losing record and some guys on that team want nothing to do with him. The Kings will be well rid of him.

That said, Goulding was awesome. One of the best individual performances I've ever seen. If he plays like that in the playoffs, the Tigers will give anyone problems, despite the fact they are playing with virtually one import right now.

Most Kings fans blame Heal when they lose and praise Ogilvy, Madgen etc when they win it's quite amusing.
A potential Adelaide v Melb semi final series is something to look forward to.

This time next week, Hawks ahead of Kings in the 4?

"Sydney should've gone to a box and one I thought"

They did, but a couple of well executed screens can kill that pretty quickly.

The refs are taking Ogilvy out of the game too early with soft foul calls. Kings didn't play that bad, Goulding was just hot. I would have put a player like Brad Hill on Goulding and got him to tag him, so if he got fouled out it wouldn't be a significant loss on offence. Young obviously couldn't keep up with Goulding.

Paul, you're a prose pro, bro. Great report.

I wonder about Farrakhan... he's a master of digging the offense into a hole because the offense slows measurably when he's on.

What kind of team are they? Defensive minded, low possession, halfcourt team or one that implements more of a quicker pace? Their possessions looked good when they didn't use much shot clock to get things done. But if it weren't for Goulding consistenly bailing them out with made shots, I wonder what their offense would've looked like today.

Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne all will play finals.

Mathematically:
- Perth will be top
- Adelaide a ~97% chance of second and ~3% of third
- Melbourne a ~3% chance of taking second, ~87% of third and ~10% of fourth
- Sydney ~11% chance of taking third, ~38% chance of 4th and ~51% of not making finals (including a ~2% chance of finishing last!)
- Wollongong ~44% chance of taking 4th and 56% of not making finals
- Cairns ~7% chance of still taking fourth
- NZ still a ~5% chance of taking fourth!
- Townsville can't finish higher than sixth

If the Hawks win their last three games, they're a lock for fourth. If they beat Townsville and Sydney but lose to Perth, they're still an 88% chance to take fourth from Sydney. Even losing to Townsville and Perth leaves them a 10% chance to take fourth if they beat Sydney. Expect a sellout in Wollongong on the 21st.

I'm sure that Anstey threw a few game plans out the window when Bubbles went crazy.
Smart move.

It's what every coach with half a brain would do, yes. My point was more bigger picture -- what is a Melbourne Tigers game going to look like come playoffs?

Because it's safe to say Goulding isn't reaching those heights again this season.

It's a great question SS, I think the reason theyre so inconsistent is their preferred style is so hard to perfect.

IMO they need to push the ball to get into their sets quick, but not quick-shoot the ball too often to let opponents to get into an up-and-down affair where Melbourne's heavy rotations can get exploited.

But when they are running out off boards like today and using that time to execute they are very difficult to defend.

Can they do that against a team that disrupts fullcourt like Adelaide and Perth? Some night yes, some nights no, they need to make that more consistent over the next fortnight to give themselves a chance.

And thanks for the compliment, that was one of my all-time favourite games to cover, a real high-quality fun affair.

^^^ A typically absurd comment from an anon. herpes is no laughing matter.
@ Statsheet Stuffer, good posts mate I like the way you tell it how it is.

I think the reason theyre so inconsistent is their preferred style is so hard to perfect.

You mean their preferred style of relying on Bubbles to shoot the lights out every game? ;)

I should go through their results this season to get some facts to back it up, but it's pretty clear that the Tigers win when Goulding fires (for the most part) as the rest of the team is pretty unexceptional overall...

That being said, as I've said elsewhere, a truly spectacular performance from Chris, hitting a lot of shots with a hand in his face but also a lot wide open, which is unforgivable from the Kings defence. With the Gong losing this round, it was on the Kings to take this game by the balls and put a stronger lock on that fourth spot and even push for a third spot on the ladder, but again, as we've seen recently, they come out flat and uninspired, which as a Kings fan is REALLY disappointing.

As has been said above, we can't use the old "getting the most out of a team that isn't that talented" as we've got a LOT of good players, some great ones too, but it's just lacking the desire and effort and desperation that other teams are showing, that really kicks you in the nuts as a fan.

Young puts up numbers, but again, lazy on D, whinging to refs on his arse while the play is up the other end, taking over 6 or so REALLY silly shots... This is extra frustrating ad then in another play, he gets it down low and completely dominates!

AJ still is picking up soft fouls early, sure, there's no questioning them, but the inconsistency that allows him to continually get hammered on the other end with no whistle is painful...

Kings have Adelaide(H), Perth, NZ, Wollongong & Townsville(H) in the run home. That's three teams that the Kings haven't beaten this season and two more very tough teams...

Truth is, they've had their destiny in their hands a few times this season and they've come up short. I hope I'm wrong, but unless they pull their finger out, I can't see them making the playoffs, which as a Kings fan is really hard to take...

Goulding's scores when Tigers win: 29, 34, 29, 31, 14, 14, 30, 22, 26, 18, 23, 31, 25, 50.

They have wins with him above, below and on average, but obviously the odds are better when their best player plays well.

The extra nuance to that, though, is he is more likely to play well when they are playing with pace in the halfcourt - hence giving him more potential scoring opportunities - while keeping the other team playing slow, and that isn't easy to do.

Kings dont play Perth again, theyve got NZ, Adelaide(H), Wollongong & Townsville(H) in that order.

If they beat the Hawks and win one other I think theyll make it as Wollongong's other two games are in Townsville and Perth, and while they are playing well, winning both of those will be tough.

If the Hawks continue their dominance of Sydney though, the Kings will prob have to win all their other three and even that mightnt be enough.

Ah yes, my mistake, still blocking that close loss out, maybe... Still, I had least got some hope out of pushing Perth so far and even leading at some point... completely different team it looked like compared to the one that played the Tigers...

The Tigers game was there for the taking and would have allowed them to not have to rely as much on other results...

NZ have both Kings and Cairns at home, quite possible two wins... That could have them 12-16 best case (for them) which means that we would have to beat two of our remaining opponents, still in their hands, but not very comfortable...

Truth be told, if Cairns or Wollongong get up into fourth spot, it will be hard to fault them compared to the Kings... Would just be incredibly disappointing, considering third spot and a more favourable match up against Adelaide was possible...

I'm in two minds about Melbourne's post-season chances. On the one hand, you'd think you wouldn't want to take their game-plan into finals intensity play against Perth or Adelaide. On the other hand, perhaps just hoping Goulding explodes in two games is exactly the sort of thing that works in a best of three series.

There's no two minds about it, Nathan. Melb have no chance post season. If they've only got one option (Goulding) and it's pretty clear that's the case, that makes the job a fair bit easier for decent opposition coaches (Gleeson, Wright). Compare that with Perth for eg. if Ennis has a bad night there's Redhage, Beal, even Martin that can (and have) step up offensively.

I do think Martin's last month is something that has really put some worries on the plates of the other coaches.

Wellington are a possibility and the NZNBL gig maybe connected. I always thought Pero Cameron would get the next HC job but the Heal appointment would be considered a coup. Not sure why, anymore.

Re the defence on Goulding, did anyone see one double team direction from the bench? The most obvious of initial plays against a sharp scorer like Chris.

Cheers, Bert.

My road to the playoffs:
I reckon the Hawks are only winning one of their last three. They're running into an emotion-charged Townsville on Saturday with Rusty's last home game (L), will be tough going against Sydney but I'll give them the (W) and Perth in Perth just ain't going to happen (L)

Sydney should win two of their last three with a probable (W) in NZ, but if they don't get that, they'll probably get up against Adelaide, but for arguments sake I'll give them a (L), lastly you can't say anything but a win at home against a Conklin-less Townsville.

As good as Chris was, Heal's coaching was equally as bad. You saw Cairns double team Rotnei Clarke virtually every time he touched the ball at the Sandpit - at least in the first 3 quarters. Obviously Fearne made his mind up that somebody else was going to beat them. As far as Heal went, whether by his arrogance or plain stupidity, he almost never doubled Goulding at any stage.

50 points is awesome no doubt, but when a single player has 29 at the half, adjustments have got to be made. Heal never made them - and it's one of his giant weaknesses as a coach.