Regardless of their indifferent results of late, I'm very confident Perth will finish top .. I don't see a team beating them twice in a three game series

My full season bets have been Adelaide for the championship at $7, Goulding for MVP at $11 and Clarke for MVP at $17.

Reckon Perth's $1.91 will shorten significantly if it comes down to a Perth-36ers grand final series? I'm not so sure. I plan on waiting to see what form is like later in the season and/or what odds are around once the wildcards are (hopefully) eliminated.

Unfortunate how those two guys have dipped harshly in efficiency.

I don't think Perth's value will change too much at all, good point. It can only go south from here. I have noticed that the bookies love to reward Perth when they're on form. That is, they realise Perth are clearly the most likely to win and when they hit form, their value reduces by a greater amount than if another club, say Melbourne or Sydney were to hit form.

I guess with Matty Knight coming back you really cannot go past Perth. I know Adelaide certainly match up well against Perth, but I just don't trust anyone to beat that Wildcats team twice in three goes (especially when they're locked-in mentally).

Also, Adelaide are not even a lock for second spot -- they have a tough run home if memory serves me correctly.

Plus, Perth are definitely going to be locked in on defense and will make a mockery of Townsville on Friday, so their value will go down, regardless of whether Adelaide put in a good performance @Wollongong.

At this stage, I may hedge and do it before this round starts, sleep on it though.

As a Perth fan, the only team im "scared" of maybe edging us out is Adelaide. They're able to beat Perth at the arena, and clearly win at home. I've respected the 6ers and their talent this season + what joey has done with this team.

If they were to edge the wildcats out i wouldn't be surprised, and would pay them my full respect. Any other team would just piss me off lol. But all in all, i think Perth have it in the bag this season, especially when Matty Knight comes back. He'll peak in the finals.

It's still a 2 horse race between Perth and Adelaide. I agree Adelaide are capable of winning in Perth but the wildcats are no slouches on the road. A healthy Matt Knight is enough to give Perth favouritism imo.

Assuming he actually gets healthy and his head doesn't randomly fall off or anything.

Knowing our luck this year he will recover from head injury and hurt his ankle or calf again

Adelaide look to be the only team that can beat Perth in a 3 game series. That said, if Adelaide play Cairns or Sydney in the semis, they will struggle to get through. Sydney clearly have Adelaide's measure and Cairns are so unpredictable. If NZ make the finals, I'd favour Adelaide to get them in 3 as they'd probably have home court advantage.

See the Superbowl thread - defence beats offence in finals and Perth seem to be the only team Adelaide seem have defended effectively this year. I don;t rate Melbourne's chances against anyone in a 3 game series. Hence my concerns about Cairns and Sydney.

Re Perth improving when Knight comes back. Surely there is some medical concern about his history of concussions and whether the risk of long term damage is affectign his return? If so, that may affect his return and whether he's able to play out the season. I think back to Schenscher and his fall in early January last season. The club initially said it was bruising and he would be back in "a couple of weeks", then it was a month and ultimately he never made it back in that season.

I thought at the start of the season only 3 teams were capable of winning it all, that being Adl, Perth and Cairns. I still stand by that though the way Cairns have stuffed up some of their easy games this season they probably won't find themselves in a position to win it all. I don't think Adl or Perth should be concerned about Syd, Melb or NZ in a 3 game series. But they should be nervous if they have to play the unpredictable Taipans due to their depth and versatility.

I still have Sydney as a dark-horse now they've turned their dynamic around. Have good records against two of the likely Top 4, and if they can avoid Perth (although Perth hasn't played them post-rebirth) then they may very well get it done.

I worry about the 6ers D. Not sure it will stand up in play off games. Hope I'm wrong though.

Wright is the better coach and Gleeson showed a lack of adjustments over three game series during his tenure in Townsville, often losing to lesser teams due to Xs and Os and players not showing up effort-wise.

Having said that, Perth has way more fight in them, with or without a coach, and Gleeson has done a fantastic job this year obviously - getting his guys to play hard when it counts doesn't seem to be an issue due to the strong incumbent Wildcat culture.

You'd think Gleeson would have to really get his pants pulled down by some Wright ingenuity out of left-field to lose in the GF...but I wouldn't put it past Joey to have played his cards close to his chest and to employ some entirely new strategies when the games really count...

There is also the issue of Adelaide's porous defense. Come playoff time everyone says its "can you get consecutive stops in a row with a game on the line?" And Adelaide can't, they just don't have the personnel to have much of an effect on that end, no matter who is coaching them.

Barring a meltdown it's Perth from now until they hoist the trophy.

Well, Perth giving Melbourne a defensive baking on their home court has put things back on the right track, but that Melbourne/Cairns slip-up, will be in back of mind for me until the season is over. Close losses, yes, but losses at home.

Hard to say, everyone bar Perth has had at least one team give them a solid thrashing during the season. Whether that counts for anything...

It's very much up in the air. If Perth get top and Cairns slip into fourth that could be an intriguing series. Adelaide wont want to see Sydney in the playoffs. It's a very even league, but Perth and Adelaide will prob get a big reward for their fast starts and that homecourt could be huge in the playoffs.

Let's hope the penny's drop the right way. I just want 2 home finals so we can continue the regrowth of our Sixers. Bonus if they win the Championship, but I am pretty happy right now....

Out of interest, this is the ladder since Christmas:

Melbourne 6-3
Adelaide 4-2
New Zealand 4-2
Sydney 4-3
Cairns 5-4
Perth 4-4
Wollongong 2-6
Townsville 1-6

Feel free to correct if Ive mucked that up, done in a hurry!

fingers crossed everybody that Sydney don't win

I think the championship is Perth's to lose.

Townsville are not going to make finals.
Wollongong will miss out

The top 4 is now 5 teams fighting for 3 spots, with Perth likely to get the MP. Adelaide could steal it, but need Perth to drop a few easy ones for it to happen.

Cairns - Need to win 5/7 games, probably 6/7 to make it happen, They have beaten Perth twice, so if they did finish 4th Perth should panic slightly. Likely to finish out of the placings.

NZ -A run of "easy" games for them and with the split on Sydney likely, they need to win 6/9 games to make finals. 3/9 games against Cairns so still very much open to 4th spot. They are +14 on the split with the Tigers too so their season is very much alive.

Sydney have the split on the Tigers, so watch out there. To finish 3rd they need Melbourne to drop a few easy ones and hope to finish on even wins. If they finished 3rd, then the Sixers might need to redraw some plays. Likely to finish 4th or 5th.

Melbourne - really only have 1 easy game out of 7 left which means they could be well hardened come finals. Likely to stave off and hold onto 3rd, but could tumble to 5th if they only win 2 or 3 of those 7.

Adelaide - The toughest run home - 95% sure they will make finals, but ladder position could vary.

Perth - Have made finals, should finish top, but only an entree of complacency will ensure they tumble off their perch.

Come finals, Adelaide have as good a chance as any of the 5 teams. I would say the probability of winning the flag at this point of time is:

Perth: 60%
Adelaide: 30%
Sydney: 5%
Melbourne: 4%
NZ: 1%

Betting wise, I would drop money on Perth, a lazy $20 on NZB as the smokey, and a bit on Adelaide.

Perth are only one loss ahead of Adelaide with two games left against them. The Wildcats are favourites for top, but if they lose both to the 36ers all of a sudden they would have to make up two games out of the few remaining games to get first.

Adelaide's run home:

@ WOL
@ PER
@ MEL
vs NZB
@ WOL
vs TSV
vs PER
@ SYD
vs MEL

If we're not pretenders, we should clean up those home games, get the Hawks 2-0 on the road and maybe take one of Sydney or Melbourne on the road.

Might have a clearer picture after those first three.

Sheit. It's a tough one. I don't know whether to leave it another week; I feel Adelaide will demoralise Wollongong. But that's the thing, the Perth @ Townsville outing won't be a game, it'll be a shame so Perth's value may drop by 10+ cents because they will be seen to be back in form.

I could win $1600 profit if Adelaide win and I don't hedge with Perth, but if I do hedge on Perth, I'll be getting about $760 for either Adelaide or Perth winning the championship.

I'm erring on the side of caution and taking Perth simply because I don't trust Adelaide to finish at least second.

However, I don't trust the form of a Melbourne, Sydney or Cairns (or NZ, Jack) come playoffs. They may just turn it on. And if I do take both Perth and Adelaide and neither win, I'll lose about $1000.

Can someone, maybe Paul drop some basketball knowledge/analytics and hopefully rule out certain teams from contention through matchups etc?

Personally, I don't think Sydney are organised enough to get close to Perth -- they'll get suffocated.

I think in a halfcourt game, Melbourne certainly have the wood over Adelaide.

But I trust Perth to take care of Melbourne.

Yet I will take Cairns for fourth spot and they will give Perth a shake.

Arrgghh!

Assuming Perth, Adelaide and then two of the next four make it I think your situation is:

If Perth and Adelaide win their semi rounds, Perth will probably have odds of, what, $1.70 for a grand final series? Bookies already have it pegged as something of a two-horse race. You still have a bet to make, but without worrying about the wildcards.

If Perth are dumped but Adelaide win, then you hedge against Adelaide with similar odds to Perth now, but from the wildcard and without the threat of anyone else.

If both lose, then had you hedged now, you would've been screwed just as you are then.

If Adelaide lose but Perth win through, you have a clean slate. If Perth are then $1.40, is that so much worse than your plan now to assume a two horse race and have $1k on the line? It's still $1k and needing Perth to win you a few hundred.

I'm holding my bet first until the start of semis and then (hopefully) wait and see come grand final series.

To start the season my top 4 were Perth, Cairns, Melbourne (cairns by the skin of their teeth in the head to head) and Wollongong.

Whilst Wollongong won't make it I think Melbourne are great when they are clicking and terrible when they aren't. Cairns are an amazing team to watch when they are winning the rebounding count and Trigger will offer so much (remember Mitch Young is picking up a heap of experience) and you can't underestimate how valuable Matt Burston has been to this team and I honestly find them a scary prospect in a 3 game series (they have flogged everyone atleast once and been flogged numerous times too).

I just can't buy into Adelaide at present and when they win I'm more surprised than anything (especially that NZ game when it couldn't be more predictable). Jason Caddee is such a gem in this team and if he can penetrate and keep confidence in his shot then that seems to lift his team mates. In the past they have been negative in their body language when Jason takes a bad shot.

I can't see Sydney, NZ, Wollongong or Townsville making the playoffs and whoever plays Adelaide in the 1st round I see them being beaten. I think it will be Melbourne and hopefully we don't have the 3 playoffs series being sweeps like last season and NBL teams can make more money!