Melbourne could cause an upset of the 6ers, a 3 game series. Always fearful of a team with a Goulding type who can get hot real quick. But yeah Id have to agree its pretty much a 2 horse race, at this stage.

I think Ervin is out for a bit recovering from an injury/surgery, so that might even up the middle of the ladder a little.

Agree with OP. Can't see anyone beating Perth or Adelaide unless injury strikes.

Go sixersl!!!

Melbourne, Sydney, Cairns and New Zealand all have plenty the talent, Wollongong and Townsville have plenty of tricks, but at the moment none of those teams has shown the consistency to suggest they are a serious title challenge. Momentum is such a big thing in a league where the talent is very even.

If Melbourne had beaten the Sixers in Adelaide (a 3 point loss) they would be even on the table. Then everyone would be talking differently. That is not to mention the Sixers miracle win (or the Breakers inexcusable loss, depending on your point of view) their first game in NZ. People are seriously overrating the Sixers and underestimating the competition.

Melbourne will get better as they go. To be 7-6 after the disrupted start theyve had is a great effort. Other teams will get better too, but finishing top two is huge.

I think Townsville in 2011 is the only top two team to lose a series in the NBL since Wollongong in 2004, so Perth and Adelaide are in good shape.

Having said that, if Ervin is out for a few weeks that could really bring them back to the pack.

I had heard Ervin might be out longer, but he/media are suggesting it won't be too long.

Adelaide's record might flatter them, but they are still yet to really hit their stride IMO.

Depends what they found in the surgery.Got pretty good coverage in the guard rotation to handle it.

Barring the unexpected, two horse race, yes. A possibility of Melbourne catching Adelaide, that series split might become quite important. I think Sydney are toast, they've screwed their squad.

The actual Championship is closer to a 1 horse race IMO

Agree with Mystro. I think Adelaide are closer to the pack than they are to Perth. NZ and Sydney will battle for the wooden spoon, TSV and Hawks will stir the pot but Tigers and Cairns will round out the top 4.

I think it is way too early to call. Perth hasn't yet played half their games and if they lose Ennis or Beal to injury they could lose 3 or 4 on the trot and fall back to the pack.

If they make it to the GF I would back their superior recent finals experience to see them home but we are a long way from the GF.

Melbourne has the talent but they're not coached well enough to contend for a title IMO.

Wildcats have 4 x American born players in the squad.
Makes it very very hard for other teams to complete with!!

^ what does that have to do with anything?

Geography doesn't dictate talent

If you discount U'u who gets less than 10 minutes a game.

Wildcats
Ennis
Beal
Redhage

Sydney
Young
Carmouche
Garlepp (Canada)

Melbourne
Farrakhan
Ballinger
Morrison (Canada)

New Zealand
Johnson
Wilkinson
Bruton

Wollongong
Tiggs
Clarke
Gruber

Disagree the 6ers are close to the pack. They have yet to click on all cylinders, and i pity which team has to deal with them when they do.

Beat Perth at full strength, and lost by 3 to start the season down key players. Besides a hiccup on the sunshine coast, proving to be legit to me.

peter your post made me piss myself laughing

San Antonio only have about 5 American born players in their squad so by the previous logic they should be running last :)

First off, Perth are by far the best this competition has, Adelaide probably come 2nd, but are falling very close to the rest of the pack. Melbourne seem to be firing alright now, but the team that everyone always forgets about is the Breakers. If they make the playoffs, I think that they will make some noise. Despite their terrible record, after their tough 3 game road trip, their schedule is incredibly easy, I would expect to see them as a championship contender...

$$$$$$$$ wins Championships.

They still have 4 American born players each game.
More then any other team.

Peter you crack me up. school holidays.