Last time these two teams matched up, Sturt had big performances from only two players. Forman had a massive final quarter to finish with his career-high of 37 and 16, while Gower had the fifth best male statline of this ABL season, ending on 20 points, 18 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 steals. After those two, Ng struggled to make baskets (11 points, 3-17 FG) and only Paul Bauer from the rest scraped into double figures with 10 points.
For the Eagles, Dix was steady and Newley fired late in the game to manage a respectable line. The other impact performance, in my opinion, was Farman's early baskets that secured the early Forestville lead.
What's changed since April 9?
The Eagles have lost the services of danger-man Newley, but are otherwise steady. Dix has posted outstanding numbers and the team has fallen only once, to West by 10 points courtesy of Bearcat big-man Truslove's 30 points. In the Sturt game, no Eagle besides Newley really underperformed. Sullivan scores around 20 a game more often than not, but 12 points and 6 assists is comparable to his season average of 16 PPG and under 3 APG. The rest were pretty much on par with their usual games.
In comparison, since that game, Sturt lost Gower to injury for a number of weeks but may see him return in time for the rematch. Whether he is fit to play may well be the difference... In addition, Sturt have recently been without the services of injured James-Martin and Bauer, but their absence has been handily covered by other Sabres -- Potsie's cousin Mark going from barely stepping on court in the first nine games of the season, to scoring in double figures and at an impressive 79% in the last three outings.
The other improvement has come from Finkemeyer; in the last five games in which Gower has been missing from the Sturt line-up, Finkemeyer (Finkenmeyer if you're at Starplex, and Fingertipmetre if you're at Marion) has risen to the occasion: 16.4 PPG and 9.2 RPG, up from 6.3 PPG and 3.6 RPG outside of those games. He had his season-high of 23 points last week, is second in the league from the field, and I'd rate him more or less Farman's equal based on current form.
So, who's likely to decide the result? For Forestville, my pick is Sullivan -- he's hit double figures in all but two games and he's leading the competition in three-point percentage. If you try to reduce Dix's impact, you risk leaving Sullivan alone for the long bomb. That said, without Newley, the Eagles are missing their other strong outside shooter (no other major contributor above 33%) and the Sabres could have him covered. Still, he's their second leading scorer and he will have to fire to give Forestville their best chance.
For the Sabres, I'm going with Ng. He was 3-17 last time these two teams met and shouldn't shoot as poorly again. Against the Lions last round, he was 5-22, but that's only because he left his headband at home, and I'm sure he won't make the same mistake again! He's not the leading contributor of the Warriors this year, with a scoring average hiding behind that of Forman's, but he's still as smooth a shooter as ever and someone will have to keep him covered at all times. If they have him defended outside, he'll still piss them off by hopping inside to draw a few fouls and convert from the line.
At this stage, my tip is Sturt. If Gower plays, I think they'll get up by 15. If not, maybe 5. If the Eagles disobey the Crocs and sneak Newley onto the court, then it's a completely different story, but after Mottram's luck, I don't think they'd risk it!
