Holmes in negative because he screws up the team offense by generally taking bad shots / not making the extra pass. It offset his rebounding this year. Last year he was hitting the silly shots so it was a wash.

Good to see this sort of data about the NBL, we are a little starved of anything beyond the basic boxscore despite the rest of the world moving beyond that a few years ago...

I knew Demos was the worst player in the league!

right
EXCEPT
NBA teams are using these types of algorithms to recruit and build teams.
Long gone are the says of a player being recruited by talent alone

Holmes is a notorious negative on a teams performance and this demonstrates that.

Another variation of Moneyball?

'467, that's funny, because Andrew Price (the guy behind Lob Pass to Abercrombie) works with the Breakers to provide them with advanced stats. You might know the Breakers from their past two championships and their 1-0 lead in the current grand final series?

And as Muzz Buzz said, NBA teams are spending more and more on video analysis and advanced stats coming from that.

No one's saying it's everything, but at a point, every tiny advantage counts.

This isnt saying advanced stats arent useful, they definitely are, but you have to pick and choose which ones you use. For example, in December a formula the website in question used to predict wins had Perth getting 14 or 15 for the whole season!

This is data to add to a pool of data and observations when making assessments, nothing more, nothing less and Im sure that's how it was intended.

"Also cam tovey for example has some of the worst stats in the history of the nbl yet by this graph contributes more wins to his team over such players than johnny Flynn and corin Henry?"

I see what you're saying here but you also need to consider that Perth won around twice as many games as Melbourne, so Tovey has got twice as much opportunity to contribute to a win.

(I think?)

I like this type of data. really takes into account efficiency in relation to minutes and games played. This is also why I said that Crosswhite should have an equal shot at the kings MVP with Madgen and why volume shooters like Goulding are OVERRATED. Also, lol @ Tomlinson being so negative.

"breakers are so good because they are the national team with 2 Aussies and 2 Americans and a great coach"


Nothing is stopping Australian clubs from going and getting those players.

You can't blame Kiwis for wanting to stay in NZ.

That would be like blaming David Andersen or Bogut for going back to play in Victoria. Or blaming Jawai going back to Cairns or Ingles to SA.

If Boomers/fringe boomers came back to their respective states, you wouldnt hear me saying "The Tigers are so good because they are a state team with 2 imports and 2 kiwis".

If teams can fit them into their salary and points cap..Good on them

What Macdub said

Maybe the stats aren't the issue, its how people are interpreting them.

And besides, I don't need stats to tell me Demos is the worst player.

Anyone who thinks statistics are the answer, holistically, then of course that is not true.

This is good stuff and only the best coaches out there understand how it works.

It is part Moneyball, part Coach Carter, part business and all about winning ratios.

Used correctly with game tapes, taking into account a player's impact on results, team balance, value, leadership and other intangibles combined to complete an in depth player profile...

Then you have something, only the best coaches understand, that's why they are the best!

@Paul
did anything major happen at the Wildcats to change the course they were on in that period?

Dunnigan out Knight in for instance

Have a look at the win share to tell you what a difference that made

Also then add in Carter for Robbins

Dunnigan and Robbins were in the bottom four of win share for the Cats

This might suggest indeed that the data is accurate and insightful

Good point!

I often see parents watching juniors playing basketball and wowing at a kid who thows up a 3 pointer or twenty only to hit one or three and end up one of the higher scorers and even named as one of the best players...

What is missed is that player's inability to defend, fould he/she gives up, missed shots and missed opportunities to pass to an open team mate and turnovers that may cost the team the game.

Meanwhile there may be a couple of players busting their gut blocking guys out so easy team rebounds can be made, they don't get accredited numerous assists and their value to the team, although quite effective is not noticed.

What you see is often not what occurs!

Muzz Buzz. Great point.

The win share data may be more accurate in groupings of players (2 at least)

So as you mentioned, corroborating a player with another player who suited up/started in the same games or many of the same games.

Agree, Bear. And it flows right on up into the NBA.

Look at the Knicks with Jeremy Lin last season. Carmelo was playing selfish shite and when, he stopped playing, they started playing team ball and doing really well.

Now they all seem to be playing a lot more team ball and look how well they're doing.

Geez you'd think he'd have the decency to put up some sort of disclaimer explaining that it is not necessarily a foolproof metric and that debate exists over the efficacy of some of the stats ...

So much dumb shit in this thread. Read the definition of a win share and how its calculated before you throw in your two cents.

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

Ok Isaac ill bite here..I am a kings fan and I'm going to use Aaron Bruce as a example. His threes against Townsville pretty much single handedly won the kings the game also he torched the sixers in Adelaide yet he is negative?

That's 2 out of 28 games?

Also cam tovey for example has some of the worst stats in the history of the nbl yet by this graph contributes more wins to his team over such players than johnny Flynn and corin Henry?

As said, his team has won more games which probably helps. Further, his (excellent) coach has started him for a long time (until his injury issues) and the team's been really successful. Bevo doesn't do that because "Wouldn't it be funny if we could finish top two and Tovey hardly gets a point?" He does it because Tovey is a really smart, team-oriented player capable of playing exactly his role.

Another top-tier team has one of those: Dillon Boucher. CJ Bruton made sure Boucher came with him from Brisbane days because he knew his value. Players and coaches know why those guys are in teams, even if fans don't. Greer is another remotely similar example. Ask Phil Smyth about David Cooper's value to a team some time.

You were the anon who said:

Stats DO NOT always show what and how a player has contributed to a teams win.

And then you raise stats to discount Tovey's contribution.

Clearly they're not everything and no one has suggested as such here. It's just another metric that adds to the hints we have about value of players.

So Deleon is #2 on a Hawks team that made the SF's yet some people think they shouldn't re-sign him?

See what the Hawks do. I don't think they'll keep him. I don't know if the Blaze were going to keep him. And before the Hawks had grabbed him, no one else had, right? That's with him being pretty cheap ($65k or so) at GC.

I was keen for Wollongong to sign him after his GC stats. Having watched a lot of Hawks games this year, I think he's a good individual player, but I don't know that I'd be signing him. I also wouldn't be keen to see him with the 36ers.

It would've been interesting to see the win shares for Wollongong with Martin, Saville and Hurdle playing full seasons. I don't think Deleon would've been #2 in that case.

@hoopie, you noticed that too??

LIN is a dead set team player and a winner, love watching that boy play.

Now all we need to see is a coach in the NBA who sees the value DELLY can bring his team and he will get drafted IMO!

534, were you one of the old men that worked for Oakland in Moneyball?

@Muzz Buzz - no, the Wildcats were in second place with a back log of home games in the second half of the season, Stevie Wonder knew they were going to win a lot more than 14 games!

The data tells the story that Dunnigan and Robbins arent as effective as Knight and Carter
That is what is being discussed
Just because you have had a tiff with Andrew doesn't mean you should be all defensive about this stuff.
NBA teams are pumping millions into this train of thought
AFL teams are using it now as well
Algorithims are the future of sport

December 17, Andrew predicted

NZ 23- 5 ( actual was 24-2)
ADL 11- 17 ( actual was 8-20 )
CNS 12 - 16 ( actual was 11 - 17)
MEL 10 -18 ( actual was 12 - 16)

At round 11 he predicted mathematically for most (5) teams within 3 wins of their final slots. That data didnt allow for injuries etc

NZ 1 game off
Perth 7 games off
Kings 3 games off
Hawks 7 wins off
36ers 3 wins off
Cairns 1 win off
Crocs 5 wins off
Tigers 2 wins off

Of course Dunigan was going to be low on the win share list as he only played 4 games! If he had stuck around all season at that pace and team record, he should have led this statistic.

Hey Guys,

just a note on these numbers - each teams wins scores add up to their total wins for the season (give or take a tiny amount). This means that Adelaide have the fewest 'win shares' to give out, and the Breakers the most etc. Which is why someone like C.Jackson has so many compared to someone like Gary Ervin.

Another thing to note, is it is 'wins contributed' - J.Flynn came part way through the season, which is why he would be lower down the list of Melbourne's player, because he didn't have the chance to contribute as many 'wins'.

Thanks for all the feedback

Muzz Buzz, I dont have a tiff with Andrew, I dont even know him! I read his website and enjoy it because it gives an insight no one else gives into the NBL.

I was just pointing out that like every form of analysis statistical data can be very accurate, somewhat accurate or otherwise, in response to people who were getting a bit carried away with whether this was 'right' or 'wrong'.

As for trying to analyse win share for Dunigan and Robbins to study Perth's performance, I think that is a bit like not being able to see the trees for the woods!

Data is data, analysis of the data then gives you more information to process and once you add the other information necessary to make an intelligent decision, you can give something your best guess...

If the data is poor in the first place, you are pretty much going to end up with gaps in the process.

Judging the integrity or accuracy of your data is always a challenge.

Making comparisons between players and team in any sport is always going to lack the things that you cannot see in the data.

Therefore, no one should get too hung up about this type of statistical data analysis IMO, it is usually just a good start to an longer process to determine your hypothesis...