The "Ghost of the Past" - Are the Spurs Finals Failures?
Any-one who followed San Antonio last season knew they had two bogie teams who they simply did not match up well against. Those were Memphis and Portland.
2010-2011 Regular Season:
vs. Memphis 2-2 Series Draw
Dec 18 @ Home WIN 112-106 in OT
Feb 27 @ Home WIN 95-88
March 1 @ Memphis LOST 109-93
March 27 @ Memphis LOST 111-104
vs. Portland
Dec 2 @ Home WIN 95-78
Feb 1 @ Portland LOST 99-86
Mar 25 @ Portland LOST 98-96
Mar 28 @ Home LOST 100-92
Between these two teams, they accounted for almost a quarter of the Spurs losses. Spurs arguably struggled in 3/4 games against both teams.
It was entirely predictable that the Spurs would lose the series to Memphis, not because they'd 'choke' or because their stars are too 'old', but because they managed to face a side they struggle against - and the Spurs didn't struggle against many teams all year! Ginobili breaking his arm admittedly did not help the Spurs cause.
The Spurs bowing out early last season is not a reason to believe they will bow out early again this year. With Houston (this years bogie team) officially out of the race for 8th seed, the Spurs face either Utah or Phoenix.
vs. Phoenix
Jan 15 @ Home WIN 102-91
Mar 24 @ Phoenix WIN 107-100
April 14 @ Home WIN 105-91
vs. Utah
Dec 31 @ Home WIN 104-89
Feb 20 @ Utah WIN 106-102
April 8 @ Home WIN 114-104
April 9 @ Utah LOST 91-84 (Rested Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Splitter)
The likelihood of the Spurs bowing out first round this year? Barring some sort of horrible injuries to the big 3, it's slim to nada.
What's the Spurs playoffs track record? They've won 4 championships. They have been in the playoffs for 15 consecutive years. They know how to win playoff series.
The Spurs are deep this year
Spurs are the deepest they have ever been. This crap about players not being used in the finals - that maybe so for one or two, like Mills and Joseph but they're a solid 10 deep.
Size:
Tim Duncan - We know what he can do, and his stats this year are yet again going strong. He has been scoring at roughly 18 points per game when playing 20 or more minutes with his rebounding numbers between 8-12 each game.
DeJuan Blair - Another year older, another year better in the Spurs system. Last season the Spurs were too weak against the taller teams, this year he has helped alleviate those issues.
Boris Diaw - Seasoned professional and again helps the Spurs mitigate previous height problems.
Tiago Splitter - Has had an outstanding year for the Spurs, his scoring power has improved out of sight, continues to be a strong defender and his strong work rate is visible. The Spurs look better on court with him then without.
Scoring Power:
Manu Ginobili: Feeling the best he has been in over 12 month health wise, we all know his talent and he continues to show it.
Matt Bonner: One of the best three point shooters in the league, the Spurs have been knocking down a plethora of three point daggers of late.
Stephen Jackson: Returning to the Spurs, he has added scoring power to the scorching Spurs, giving San Antonio a quick fire 10ppg in around 20 mins of game time.
Daniel Green: Another one of Coach Pops out-of-no-where pickups, with 12 points per game he is another Spur having a career season.
Strong Defender and Hard Worker:
Kawhi Leonard: Has been a shining light for the Spurs, they know how to pick em! He can score decently at 8ppg, but his real contribution is in defense and his solid rebounding numbers.
The Quarterbacks
Tony Parker: MVP type season, he has led an inspired Spurs team and he is playing out of his skin! 18ppg and 7 assists per game, he has outshone the best of point guards on a regular basis.
Gary Neal: Another one who has grown through Coach Pops system, and another great scorer averaging 12 points per game for the Spurs.
Junk Minutes Players
James Anderson: Whenever given 20mins+ has shown himself to be the great shooter he is, and in those games regularly scores 10+ ppg. If the Spurs are in a need of a shooter with the regulars misfiring, he is by no means a hail mary bet!
Patrick Mills: We all know his capabilities, he has scored 20 points when given the time, while unlikely to get any playoff time, he can carry the ball handling duties.
Corey Joseph: The guy has been riding the pine, can't say much about him.
I count the Spurs as being ELEVEN men legitimately deep in a fourteen man squad.
C Duncan/Splitter
F Diaw/Blair/Bonner
F Leonard/Jackson
G Green/Ginobili
G Parker/Neal
Mills/Anderson - Junk Time Minutes
Joseph - Seeing Nothing whatsoever
The Spurs are too old
While the nay-sayers argue year-after-year, despite the Spurs continuing to be one of the most winning-est teams, San Antonio have quietly built their young talent.
Splitter 27
Blair 23
Leonard 20
Green 24
Neal 27
Remember Tony Parker is only 29!
The Spurs will be too tired
Coach Pop is the best player-time manager in the league.
Manu Ginboli: Averaging 23 minutes per game in April, and was rested in a game. (He was rested in 2 games in March as well!)
Tony Parker: Averaging 26 minutes per game in April, and was rested in a game.(He was rested in 2 games in March as well!)
Tim Duncan: Averaging 26.4 minutes per game in April, and was rested in 3 games. (He was rested in a game in March as well!)
These guys are also likely to be rested in one of the final two games - if not both!
It's not just the big three who have been well managed, the rest of the team should be fresh as well, they have all been given roughly equally distributed time of between 13-22 minutes per game on average.
The Spurs are ridiculously efficient
Take a look at the box scores all season - the Spurs have been getting full game stats out of players getting roughly half a game in playing time!
Last few games:
Ginobli: 20pts in 22mins, 20pts in 25mins, 13pts in 17 mins
Parker: 29pts in 31mins, 20pts in 28mins, 13pts in 22mins
Duncan: 21pts in 26mins, 18pts in 29mins, 19pts in 20mins
Neal: 17pts in 15mins, 10pts in 14mins, 12pts in 19mins
Green: 18pts in 15mins, 14pts in 19mins, 11pts in 20mins
The Spurs have momentum and winning form
Dating back to the 21st of March - over a month ago - the Spurs are on a 19-2 record with 11 wins in a row and currently on an 8 game winning streak.
Of the two losses, one was against Utah where Duncan, Ginboli, Parker and Splitter were all rested - yet they only lost by 7 points.
If we go back to the 12th of March, the Spurs have had a 22-3 record, including beating Oklahoma City (in OKC), Dallas (in Dallas), Philadelphia, Indiana, Boston (in Boston), Lakers (twice, including in LA), Memphis and Phoenix (twice, including in Arizona)and Orlando.
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Will the Spurs win the Western Conference Finals?
I think star power has a lot to do with playoffs. This is where the Spurs perhaps now lack - is a Durant/Westbrook combined 70 points in a game be enough star power to beat San Antonio? I think it is.
Do we count out the Spurs?
The Spurs are the team to beat in the Western Conference. Will they win it all? Questionable. Do they have a strong chance? Absolutely, no doubt about it. Nay-sayers beware.