Mick
Years ago
2012 NBL Playoffs, Round 1 - NZ (1) v TSV (4)
Townsville have been up and down all year, and even within each game, while NZ have been an efficient machine on both ends of the floor since game 1.
Townsville draw their preferred matchup with Minor Premiers New Zealand, but they still haven't beaten them once this season, unable to string together four good quarters of basketball in each game.
The final game of the season was no preview of this series, with Townsville coach Paul Woolpert openly admitting both teams ran few sets from their playbooks, and opted not to apply any sophisticated defensive strategies in an effort not to give away too much to their first-round opponent.
Since these two teams matchup well with one another, the outcome will largely be determined by who wins the individual duals.
Key Matchups:
Cedric Jackson v Eddie Gill:
The wily veteran Gill comes up against the MVP favourite Cedric Jackson, a lightning quick PG who can affect the game in multiple ways. In the past, Gill's defense has forced Jackson into bad shooting nights, but the NZ floor general has still found a way to contribute, piling up rebounds and assists.
This is the time of year Gill's veteran poise is supposed to come to the fore, and if he's worth his paycheck, he will deliver. Though Jackson is the superior player, Gill has had no trouble with him so far like he has had with other quick young PGs.
Edge: Jackson, slightly.
Peter Crawford v Darryl Corletto:
Two long range gunners approaching the tail end of their prime. Both having career years. Crawford is the better all-round player and his size should give Corletto troubles on the defensive end.
Edge: Crawford
Tom Abercrombie v Elvin Mims:
While Elvin Mims has slid into the second unit midway through the season in favour of second year player Todd Blanchfield, he soaks up the majority of Townsville's small forward minutes. Abercrombie is one of the most athletic young players in the league, with a game that is diversifying every season, while Mims is a journeyman import in his twilight years. Mims is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, rarely finishing a game with more misses than makes from the field. His tremendous length and athleticism should give Abercrombie some trouble, but the Kiwi is younger and quicker. In reality, both are similar players, and Mims role in slowing Abercrombie is crucial to Townsville having any success.
Edge: Abercrombie
Jacob Holmes v Mika Vukona:
Holmes is wrapping up a career year with the Crocs, but his offensive shortcomings have boiled up to the surface in the last third of the season (coincidentally after he signed that contract extension). Holmes is the superior rebounder, but Vukona is the better defender and more reliable scorer. If Holmes mid-range jumper isn't falling, there is very little he can offer on the offensive end, while Vukona can sometimes disappear offensively despite possessing some nice post moves.
Edge: Draw
Gary Wilkinson v Luke Schenscher:
With the up-and-down production from Big Red since returning from hip surgery, you don't know which Schensch you are going to get: the one whose running hook is unguardable, opening up the keyway for moves closer to the basket, or the timid big man whose fadeaway hooks with no lift clang off the bottom of the ring, reducing him to little more than a (still effective) post-based distributor for Townsville's shooters. Wilkinson is undersized compared to Schensch, and while not a great rebounder, is athletic and can score the ball from a variety of spots on the floor.
Edge: Draw
Home Court Advantage: Once the most feared place in the league for opposing teams to visit, with consistent sellouts and raucous energy all game long, Townsville's home court has been reduced to a geriatric convention of mild banter and little crowd interaction. The Townsville public don't really care about their team any more after 20 years and no championship, and are unlikely to sellout any playoff games unless they reach the Grand Final. While they don't enjoy the same home-court calls as perennial powerhouse Perth, NZ will be playing at a likely sold-out Vector Arena with a formiddable crowd cheering them on.
Edge: New Zealand
Realistically I expect each team to protect their home court in three excitingly close games. If any team other than Perth can topple the Breakers it is Townsville, but they obviously haven't showed enough consistency to make me back them against the Minor Premiers and reigning champs.
