I've been looking at this one closely for obvious reasons.
As the Blaze lead the head to head against the Taipans, Cairns must win both remaining games (Kings then 36ers both at home) and the Blaze must lose all 3 remaining games (@ Breakers, @ 36ers then home to Breakers).
While the first condition is reasonably possible the second is probably a little less.
If the Blaze get one win then the Taipans, with their two wins, will need the Crocs to lose both their remaining games (@ Perth then home to Breakers), to make the playoffs.
Either way, it's a reasonable chance that these positions may not be decided until the last game of the season with the Breakers @ Blaze on the 25th.