The game is going to be very close. Breakers playing against a very good outfit in the Wildcats.

Case of great defence meets great offence in this clash. I wouldn't expect there to be more than 5pts in it by the end of the game. Wildcats have to rely on capitalizing off turnovers; since the Breakers tend to be good with their 2nd chance opportunities. Especially with Vukona and Boucher.

I'm going for the potential upset here with Perth winning by 2.

I agree with everything except Perth winning. Breakers to close it out by 7 in the 4th.

Close game and the referees could well have a big say on the final outcome in how they tightly they call the fouls.

Final basketball. Let them play I say!

Wildcats by 3.

"They say Damien Martin is the best defender in the league and all of this stuff. Blah blah blah. I thought Mika Vukona should have won defensive player of the year. He is a guy who goes out there and gets 16, 18 rebounds a game and dives for every loose ball."

So what he means is, he hasn't seen Marto play this year and wants his mate to win just because they are mates?

I agree that Damien Martin deserved defensive player of the year, Kevin Braswell (who is ranked at No# 5 in Division 1 NCAA Career Steals Leaders) knows a thing or 2 about playing D. Mika Vukona was unlucky to miss out but I think it was awarded correctly

Unfortunately "Hustle" is never really awarded anything; so voting wise, Vukona is only really getting a rating on Rebounding.

Certainly if they awarded a "Tenacity" award in the NBL; they might as well call it the "Vukona Trophy".

this will come right down to the thread. however i think NZ will have it considering it is in NZ that is the only advantage. when they go over to Perth ill put my money on Perth. however stranger things have happened in the play offs before.

NZ by 5

Even though I have a biased opinion being a Perth supporter I do beleive that the Wildcats are the only team that will be able to win the championship over NZ.
I do however think that they will need to steal game 1 to do so.. Perth by 5

I have never seen a team that has gone 22-6 have so many doubters. Perth are a good team but certainly haven't been on fire as of late. I understand how teams get up for playoffs games but how many times have Perth beaten NZ at home this season?

Mystro, while this isn't related to Basketball, the example remains valid.

Last year in the Netball, Sydney Swifts went undefeated for the entire season, then proceeded to lose their Quarter Final and then the following Elimination final.

To summarize, Anyone is open to defeat.

Anywho, we're talking about Game 1 here anyway; even if Perth do win it in game one, I'm fairly sure the Breakers are fully capable of winning the return game in Perth.

Mystro

I posted the following to you in another thread, and repeat it:

------------------

Mystro

Never say 'never ever'. Better teams with better regular season records have lost the Grand Final, such as:

-South East Melbourne Magic in 1998 - Only lost 4 games in season, and won seven more games than the second placed and eventual champion, 36ers;

-Victoria Titans in 2002 - had won four more games in season than equal second placed Perth, and eventual champions, 36ers; and

-Sydney in 2008 - Only lost three games in season, and won five more wins in season than second placed and eventual champion, Melbourne.

Ok, all three teams folded shortly after that, so maybe you have a point. You better hope and pray that you do win it.

Interesting fact: only two runaway minor premiers (that is, teams winning more than three more games than the second placed team) have gone on to win the championship, against the three losing teams above. The two successful teams were the 1986 Sixers (5 game advantage over second, Perth), and then Perth in 1991 (5 game advantage over second placed Eastside Spectres). So coming first apparently doesn't count for much!

--------------

So all in all, based on NBL history the Breakers should start as clear underdogs!

(btw, I think they will get over a Redhage-less Perth in a three game series. Would be a different matter if Redhage was playing)

NZ by 2!!

It would be a much tougher series with Redhage playing. How many teams have won from 4th place if we are playing the stats game ;)

Mystro,

A team finishing with the fourth best record (or worse) has won it all on five occassions:

1983 - Canberra Cannons (4th)
1984 - Canberra Cannons (equal 5th)
1988 - Canberra Cannons (4th)
1991 - Perth Wildcats (5th)
2001 - Wollongong Hawks (4th)

Were those Cannons sides during the '80s foxing during the regular season or what!

But the above stat really misses the point. Perth don't have to go on to win it all. You should be more concerned about how many times the team with the best record has missed the grand final series entirely, which has happened 10 times:

1981 - St Kilda Saints
1983 - Sydney Supersonics
1984 - Geelong Cats
1987 - Adelaide 36ers
1988 - Adelaide 36ers
1990 - Nth Melbourne Giants
1994 - Melbourne Tigers
2000 - Adelaide 36ers (although three-way tie by record)
2001 - Victoria Titans
2002 - Victoria Titans

A tale of missed opportunities there for 36ers fans!

It has happened the past eight seasons. In fact, in recent times it is very rare for the top two not to make the GF.

Paul, you're spoiling my fun!

Fact is over the past 8 years home court advantage has been almost unbeatable (as pointed out by Boti in his column today).

I don't expect anything to change in the finals this time around either.

Good points XY but I'm feeling pretty confidant in the Breakers to get the job done tonight. Perth don't have anyone that can take over a game like Kirk Penney and I don't believe he'll have to take over.
CEO of Bartercard Nz just came into work and gave me a seat at his corporate table :)yea boi

Sorry XY, walked into that stirring session half way through!

Mystro, dare you to take a sign with you promoting hoops.com.au

That way we can put a face to name!

I'll see what I can do ;) otherwise just look for a shaved headed white guy who looks like he has taken far to much advantage of the free booze.

The break seems to have done Perth some good.
Look the fresher.
Lisch seemed to shoot pretty well in the third.
Subbed out, of course.

Breakers OUT BREAKERED. Kevin Lisch streak shooting openned up a gap in the third and the Breakers went into chase mode.
Perth composed and ran away in the end.
The game I thought changed course in the 2nd quarter where Perth's zone was nothing special but the Breakers outside shooting deserted them and careless TO's let Perth seize the momentum. Lisch took over in the 3rd and Breakers had no answer.
The last six weeks has seen the Breakers win ugly against inferior opposition and we were not playoff prepared.
A win in Perth seems remote, and Penney injuring Vukona was a cruel and decisive blow.
How did Andre Brown ever play in the NBA?

Holy crap. A thrashing in the end and in front of their home crowd. Wouldn't have been surprised by a narrow loss, but 20+!?

Imagine if they'd gone to the MVP dinner?

They look like they could use a break.

Props to Perth, played great and were well composed.
Momentum seemed to shift once Vukona was injured.
I was sitting right in the far corner (hoop breakers were attacking in the first half) in the front table in a grey tee with a Penney jersey on.
Great seats, plenty of booze and great food, cheers Bartercard ;)
Breakers are capable of winning on the road but a big ask, it ain't over till the fat lady sings.

I'll say it now - Wildcats 2011 Champions
Place your bets

I'm gonna give a steak dinner.

Apparently Vukona is no chance of playing again in this series. For me, that means NZ are no chance of winning it. He is more important than even Penney because they dont have another real PF aside from Anthony who isnt playoff material just yet.

Huge win by the Cats. They even won me some money tonight! I feel a bit sorry for the Breakers though, with the injury to Vukona and Wilko's bout of flu.

If Vukona can't play in Perth they might be done. NZ look very soft without him in the paint. Weigh, Tovey, Marto, Lisch: they were all driving into the paint at will tonight.

A question for Mystro and MACDUB: If Vukona is out, do you think Lemanis starts Pledger with Wilko in Perth?

I think it might be the way to go as it will get the boards under control again. With Pledger and Brown matching up, you then hope Wilko will be too quick for Knight and too strong for Wagstaff. The risk is obviously getting beaten in transition, but that could be managed pretty well by telling Abercrombie and Wilko to make sure one of them is able to get back to defend the break at any one time.

I agree Paul. I thought Penney was very disappointing tonight. A game like this is where he should have taken the team on his shoulders, but he never looked like doing it. Vukona and Wilko are their most important players for mine.

Oh, I should say that I thought Tom Abercrombie gave it everything tonight. He was outplayed by Weigh in the critical 2nd/ 3rd quarters, but in the last quarter he was busting his butt to try to make things happen and nothing came off for him. I'd have him on the Sixers anyday!

They could start Boucher at PF?

I don't think that would work Isaac. They went small with Boucher late in the game and he got abused in the post (by Knight I think).

That just showed wat Perths about!! Im proud to be apart ove aclub that gives efrfort n when u count out perth thats wat happens!!! We lost knight, wagstaf n our redhage!!!! They loose 1 player n fall apart!!! Its not over!!! Im just proud ove the boys 2 nyt n the franchise!!! Well done!!! Cant wait for sunday at the jungle!!!

My eyes hurt.

Beantown, I hope they do utilise Pledger in that starting role. I would love to see Wilko and "Cheif" starting together. Without Vukona, they need players to step up and secure rebounds--Been 7"1, Pledger is the man who can fill the void of Vukona, providing he gets the burn he deserves.

He has the ability--showed that in the Oceania champs vs. Jawai where he had a double-double.

Problem with Lemanis though, is that I think he doesn't trust Pledger yet. Certainly not to the extent of his other players.

He is a legit 7"1 player (which is rare in this league to be honest) and yet this season he has averaged 11.8 MPG.

And its not like he is all size and no skill..He has good footwork , a nice hook shot, shotblocking abilities and the ability to knock down FT's.
When he has got game time this season he has had some nice games indeed:
-14 points vs. Sydney (vs. Khazzou)
-11 points/8 rebounds against Cairns
-12 points/10 rebounds vs. Adelaide
-16 points/10 rebounds vs. Melbourne
-12 points vs. Melbourne

In all those games he played over 16/17 minutes and in that Tigers game (16 and 10), he played 26 minutes.
Give cheif burn and he will help out the team

I'd def try going big in game 2 with Pledger @ Centre and Wilkinson at Power Forward. There was no boxing out and as a result they got smashed on the boards and Perth got plenty of second chance baskets.
Breakers in the second half played live by the three and die by the three and got killed lol.
Great D from Perth in that 3rd quarter.

Mat Knight was huge in that game.
Breakers should definitely go with Pledger and attack Andre Brown. He doesn't look like he can defend anyone in the post. This would encourage Perth's guards to help (in particular Damian Martin who likes to go for the interior dribble slap) and create open looks for Penney and co
Of course this strategy has never been road tested before because the Breakers usually just rely on raining threes on people and are rarely under scoreboard pressure. So it is a gamble, but you just know that Perth hold all the aces now and Lemanis has to come up with something other than scrimmage mentailty.

Matt Knight just made the most of mismatches inside, his frame was to much for the likes of Boucher or Abercrombie.

Bean, the reason I said that is that Lemanis has historically favoured Boucher and (as said) not really trusted Pledger. In a must-win game, would he take a gamble like that? On one hand, he kinda has to. On the other, I'm just not sure he would do it with so much pressure on himself. If they lose, he'll cop it whoever he starts IMO.

Sorry Mystro, I think I might have put the mockers on you guys.

Only saw the last quarter, but Damien Martin was huge and just reinforced why he is DPOY (take notice StuffNZ). Breakers did put Perth under pressure with their extended press in the 4th, but likewise Perth were getting plenty of defensive stops at the other end.

Same story every year, offense gets you to finals, defence wins you finals.

Not sure in reality that NZ can bounce back from that loss. Would Lemanis be looking over his shoulder if NZ again fail to make the grand final?

God i just loathe both teams and there supporters! I really hope the series goes to 3 now, they beat the bejesus out of each other and the title goes to QLD. I need Andrew Gaze's 'Hoop Gods' on this case pronto!

Does Lemanis have another year to come on his contract? If they don't win in Perth this would be the third year with a strong roster, mixing and matching players, and not taking it far enough. I think Bruton has one more year? Not sure about Boucher. I think that Bruton and Penney championship window would be just about closed.

Interesting to see that Rob gave Props to the addition that Mika makes to the Breakers lineup.

That injury pretty much decided the game. Considering Redhage is already out for the season; I think it went to show that Perth have a very deep lineup as well. Appears the patchwork to replace Shawn has done it's job and well I might add.

Pretty much guessed the game would come down to perimeter shooting too. Looks like it did in the end.

On a side note...anyone else think that Damien Martin wears make up! Lol...

Try talking to God in a church Fizzle instead of a Basketball forum ;)
Good call Panther32 lol

Why NZ waited until the fourth the try and disrupt Perth's offence is beyond me.

Isaac, I agree with you that Lemanis may consider Boucher the safe choice. I don't think that'll be enough though. As you say, he is going to get caned if they lose the series either way, so he may as well make the ballsy move and see if it comes off.

I was sitting across the court from the Breakers bench wondering the same thing Paul. They got killed the whole 3rd quarter and he just stood there with his arms folded.

At half time you would think the approach would be:
1. They have scored 52, we need to change something defensively
2. We have scored 52, they are going to change things defensively so we need to find ways to get some easy scores

Obviously not! Still, NZ did miss a whole heap of easy shots, but if you are relying on offence alone to win playoff games your post-season stays will generally be short.

Al Westover still unemployed?

Breakers need some muscle inside. Wilkinson looked like he had no energy and as a result was soft, Play Pledger @ Centre and rotate B J Anthony and Wilkinson at PF. Anthony can defend the post and boxes out and Pledgers height changes shots. These two guys have stepped up for the Tall Blacks under similar circumstances and are capable of doing it for the Breakers in Perth.
Gary Ervin and Cory Williams "Tweets" will surely drive Penney to make a statement in game 2 even if he will not admit as much publicly.

New Zealand sports teams never do things the easy way and dropping game 1 at home has certainly not helped the cause but they have a great team that has shown they can win on the road. Here's hoping they can pull one out of the bag.