Who do you replace him with?

KJ, a while back I also checked the MPG and W-L record of Holmes' NBL teams wondering if there was a correlation. I had wondered, but don't remember being strongly convinced either way. I also had a vague theory about him being at his best when he has a major role (Mavs ABL, etc) or is a roleplayer, rather than third-option-type-guy.

As for next year, I think he has to go to free agency first and the club has to check on the subsequent points ranking. His PPG is down to the point that I think the league must re-rate him. Assuming they're still using the system from years ago, it's partly efficiency based and his rebounding and percentages will help him, but PPG will moderate that. If he was rated down and had no other interest, both Jake and the club could exploit that by him filing for a further down-rating. The lower his rating, the higher his value to a club, obviously.

This year, he was rated at the very top of the seven point bracket, just below Burston and Davidson, ahead of Crosswhite, Abercrombie, D Martin. I think a six is more reasonable.

Libertine, Dowdell, I guess.

The system of the current coach requires 2 post players, 2 wingers and a point man for the offence.

The team has already signed two of those post players, Johnson and Ballinger, and in a recent article by Boti, the coaches have apparently stated they are looking for big man help, which possibly means something along the lines of Luke {who does combine well with Ballinger} or an import post player. This means the rotation for those two post players will be Ballinger, Johnson, and 'the big man help'.

The forth post guy generally does not play as much. So that guy is likely to be the best value for money and points. Jacob has been a great club man, but if the coaching staff stick to their system and what they have said, then Jacob needs to get rated down, and accept a lot less minutes. If not then Jeff Dowdell would have the edge.

Jacob a great club man?

Hardly!

He chases money and opportunity. Mavericks, Sturt, Adelaide, Dragons, Adelaide......

I think the year he went to the Dragons, Adelaide were in a serious financial decision that scared other players too. Sturt was his junior club too. We're not talking about a Ben Knight here.

He isnt scared to shoot, he is realistic and understands he isnt a good shooter. Nothing esle to it.

Having studied his shooting action at length, unfortunately, Jacob has almost always shot/released his outside jumper from way too far in front of his face instead of upwards off the top of the forehead. No way can you get consistent air and distance with that style of shooting, thus his confidence is very down in that area, even though occasionally he will have a "streaky" game.

His turnaround jumpshot going left has been a consistent shot for him as the ball naturally gets closer to the ideal upwards motion closer to the head in this action.

Jacob would be a much better offensive threat if he could hit from outside more consistently.

Dont forget Willie not on his own there at Sixers with Hill and in particular Creek and even imports Shannon and defininetly Howard didn either.
Which hurt us bad espeically after NG went down

Brett The Man,

Shooting is still the most important skill and wins games consistently.

In the US there are specialist shooting coaches who have increased players shooting by over a hundred percent, it seems in Australia, at any age, you are either a good shooter or not, no one seems to improve a lot unless they already have good technique.

Had a look at the Centrals/ South mens game which clearly demonstrated this. Despite Centrals having more rebounds, scores in the paint and assists, the biggest difference was perimeter shooting.

South had FGP of 52.2% to 40.2%, but scored 42 points from 3 point land to 15 ,a difference of 27 points with shooting percentage of 51.9% to 26.3%.

Holmes at a 6 would be a valuable role player coming off the bench

Yeah. Holmes won't ever be more than a Career Rebounder. Think he needs to come off the bench next season.

Certainly a keeper defense wise. However I honestly find Dowdells versatility more useful. Until the team can reliably make up that 7-11rpg that Holmes attributes to the team with existing players, there's no reason to ditch him.

I think he is worth keeping, but I agree that it would help if he could be re-rated and paid like the role player he is.

He generally plays decent defence and rebounds very well for his size and plays a very similar role to Vukona for the Breakers, who noone is criticising because he fulfils an important role on a talented team.

The problem Jacob has had (and the season by season stats above bear this out) is that the talent level of the players around him has eroded so drastically.

Anyone notice how often Vukona gets open looks under the basket? If Holmes got those looks, or was able to take advantage of mismatches when they happen, I think he would probably score quite effectively.

The problem for the last two years at least is that our offence creates nothing for anyone and most of Jakes shots tend to be taken under pressure or as a last resort.

I think if we get enough talent, Holmes will start to look a lot better as one of those glue guys who shows up and does his job every game.

Nice call Beantown. Our imports have basically sucked for so long the matchups across the board are easier against us. When's the last time we had two good imports??