sorry anon (for the essay as well as disagreeing).
I appreciate your optimism, I do want the NBL on FTA, and I desperately hope it helps - corporately, awareness etc etc.
But, if the NBL does what it did before, and rates 2's and 3's or at a high 5's or 6's, then it will be consigned to the currently marginalised One HD, rarely shown on Ten, and that will not be good news. I repeat, it is not a panacea.
Call me dumb if you like, but the facts do not support your argument. There has never been a causal link established in the NBL between crowd support and FTA coverage.
I repeat, TV chased the NBL because crowds flourished, TV left the NBL because it could not convert crowd support to commercial viewership - its speculative only to say crowds dropped even more rapidly because it lost FTA. Its speculative indeed to say that NBL crowds dropped rapidly at any point - nothing the NBL saw was as dramatic as a-league's downward spiral.
For a little while there was even an uneven marriage of both FTA and PTV - the perfect mix if you like of revenue and opportunity - but in the end FTA's inability to convert the sports audience boom to a TV audience boom is what caused FTA to abandon the product.
The NBL went off the boil, it started in the mid-nineties, when it was still on FTA. Thats a fact, not an assumption - it ha a number of years of decline while on FTA - and I acknowledge some of that was marginalised FTA on ABC.
A-league has never been on mainstream FTA. 18 months ago (not just a couple of weeks back) i predicted that crowds in the 2009-10 would barely top 10,000 people - poeple here booed me, said i was wrong because the start of the a-league was caught up in the AFL finals etc etc and that at the end of the season world cup interest would boost crowds.
Guess what? A-league averaged just on 10,000 per game last year, dropping 3000 per game.
This year a-league looks like dropping another 2000 people per game on average. Nothing to do with FTA, they never had it.
They had bursting crowds, as many as 15k per game, just 3 seasons ago - on PTV. They grew their crowd based year by year from 11.5k, to 14k to 15k on PTV. They are now in rapid free fall on PTV - and look like they will easily have their worst season ever - while on PTV. None of this to do with FTA.
They are still getting considerable print space, blog space and SBS based coverage along with PTV support, specialised shows and like.
Again, I hope you are right. History (that is the recorded stuff not the fanciful stuff, does not support it).