
Isaac
Years ago
NBL Grand Final decider: Cats vs Hawks
Wollongong ahm Hawks (2nd, 16-12) @ Perth Wildcats (1st, 17-11)Perth are paying $1.20 for the win, and Wollongong a longish $4.50. The line is -10.5.
Friday 12 March - 7:00PM (local)
Challenge Stadium, Perth
The NBL Grand Final series will go to a final and deciding game on Friday when the Wildcats host the Hawks at Challenge Stadium. Since the NBL moved to a best-of/multi-game format for the Grand Final in 1986 there have been fifteen previous occasions that teams have played the maximum number of matches and nine occasions when the Grand Final didn't go to the limit. The most recent instance of the series going the distance was last season, when the Melbourne Tigers took the South Dragons to the full five games before the Dragons eventually took the title.
Of the 15 Grand Final series that have gone the limit, the home team won the decider on nine occasions, whilst there have been six instances of the road team taking the victory and the title.
The Perth Wildcats have twice lost an NBL title on their home floor. The first time was against the Melbourne Tigers in 1993 and the most recent was versus the Sydney Kings in 2003.
Perth have hosted Grand Final games on 11 occasions previously, and have a 6-5 win-loss record including their Game One win against Wollongong this year. Wollongong are just 1-4 in Grand Final games played on the road, their lone win being a three-point victory over Townsville in 2001.
This game will be the seventh NBL Grand Final game ever played at Challenge Stadium in Perth. The Wildcats have gone 3-3 in championship matches played at The Jungle.
In the 39 games that the Hawks have played in Perth in their history, they have won on just six occasions. The Wildcats are currently on an eight-game winning streak at home against the Hawks, with the last Wollongong victory at Challenge Stadium coming back on 5 November 2005, when the Hawks recorded a 27-point win (their biggest ever in Perth).
All-time, the Hawks and Wildcats have played each other on 78 occasions, with Perth enjoying a 49-29 win-loss advantage.
Wollongong’s Cameron Tragardh bounced back from his sub-par Game One performance to score 28 points in Game Two. That effort sees him leading all players from both teams in scoring in the Grand Final series. The top five scorers thus far in the series are below:
2010 NBL Grand Final Series – Leading Scorers (average ppg)
16.5 – Cameron Tragardh (Wollongong)
13.0 – Kevin Lisch (Perth)
12.0 – Shawn Redhage (Perth)
11.0 – Luke Martin (Wollongong)
10.5 – Tim Coenraad (Wollongong)
While Tragardh is clearly in with a good chance of winning the Larry Sengstock Medal for the Grand Final series’ Most Valuable Player, his teammate and former Sengstock Medallist Glen Saville has had two average performances thus far by his own lofty standards. Saville is averaging just 5.0 points thus far in the series, which is significantly below the 11.0 he had returned in his 11 previous Grand Final games and the 10.8 he averaged in the regular season.
Hawks +10.5 is my bet. I think the Cats will get it, but not by double figures.