Any team that is going to score 1 less point than us!

I don't know why people are so confident with us against NZ. We didn't smash them we beat them by 11 without the leagues leading scorer. I think Penney who averages 25 a game (29 per game against Adelaide this season) would make a huge difference!

NZ also has Rickert, Behrendorff and Forman whom can actually contain Schenscher while Townsville only has Hinder. Townsville would need another freaky 3 point night to beat us and all the pressure would be on them to get the win infront of their home crowd. Adding to that they don't have Robertson.

In the last game we played Townsville we lost by 23 in Townsville. 54 of their points from 3 point land (compared with our 27). Also they had 33 points of turnovers compared with our 6. That is a 54 point discrepancy which is huge and can be amended this time.

So I think our best bet in order of easiest.

1 Townsville
2 Perth
3 NZ

By far New Zealand....there record speasks for itself! The mind games the breakers would be playing within themselves right now, would NOT be fun! Possible 1st, relegated to possible first round losers to a very unpredictable team... could tighten up down the strecth.

I agree with the King. I think our best chance is against Townsville & would actually back us in to win a knock out final up there.

Has to be New Zealand. They have won only 1 of their last 9 or 10 games. Townsville, apart from losing to the Tigers last night, have been in pretty decent form this past month.

We beat NZ in NZ with CJ (Australia's starting point guard) and Phil Jones out. We had Maher and Davidson out but NZ had the biggest disadvantage.

We also lost to them by 38 with no Bruce or Ballinger playing.

Unfortunately, we don't get a choice who we play. It will be more then likely NZ whom we play.

I reckon we have a decent-ish chance against New Zealand or Perth. Against Townsville we will have no hope, going on their recent form, our travel blues and our last performance in Qld. So I guess I agree with the OP.

Having said that, I also agree with pessimistic anon #225588... definitely not getting my hopes up regardless of the opponent.

Would prefer Townsville (no Robertson) but that might be because I'd rather see both of my two teams survive the first week of finals!

NZ have had some horror results, but their loss the other night was on the road, an emotional night with huge crowd support and without Penney. Yet after the terrible start, they were within striking distance a few times.

Adelaide definitely have a chance whoever they play though.

You haven't beaten a full strength Breakers team yet and thats exactly what will be taking the court. CJ is fully fit and so is Penney. Recent form or lack of it is creating a false sense of security for alot of teams where NZ is concerned. I'm with KingJames

We struggle to beat strong outside shooting teams. We just don't have good enough perimeter defence. CJ has killed Adelaide repeatedly when he's been teamed with reliable outside shooters. He sits back and knocks down the three and when the defender comes out penetrates and dishes. I really worry about us playing NZ with CJ, Penney, Jones and Forman all fit and hungry to show they can play finals and win them. And they are 10 points better at home against us, anyway.

Townsville are streakier and how JR performs goes a long way to determining how they will do against us. He hit his shots the other day and we got creamed. Ellis always plays well and Williams loved playing our slower defenders. I think JR likes playing Adelaide (he does have a little extra motivation there) and Townsville, like NZ, are a better team at teh Furnace (oosp - the Swamp).

Perth to me aren't as strong outside and I believe we match up pretty well on them inside - particularly without Rogers. Their home court performances have been erratic this season and I feel happier about Adelaide taking them on and winning.