Skip - I had it going a little differently, but I may be wrong.
If NZ win one of their games, they finish third. If Perth lose and we win, we get 5th and play Townsville. If Perth lose and we lose, or if Perth win then we get 6th and play NZ.
If NZ lose both games, then it's more complicated. If Perth lose and we win, we get 5th, NZ get 4th and we play NZ. If Perth win then we get 6th, Perth get 3rd and we play Perth.
I feel that NZ will win at least one of the games. After that, I think Perth will lose (depends on whether Anstey is playing) and we will win - just. So I think it's 60% likely we'll end up playing Townsville, 30% likely that we'll end up playing NZ and 10% likely we'll end up playing Perth. My preference is for Perth.