Yeh but they also did not win many with him. He is not a bust, but he is also not a superstar.

What if Yao Ming came into the league and had put up stats like Bogut?? What would you say about him then.

Bust for not playing in back to back games. Kidding :-)

David Lee would get my all-star vote over Bogut. Period

What if Yao Ming came into the league and had put up stats like Bogut?? What would you say about him then.

just wondering, how many games has Bogut missed?

Tired of the typical tall-poppy Australian, bash anyone successful attitude. Bust no. Worthy of a #1 pick? Well, compared to Olowokandi (and many others), he's been bl**dy terrific. Getting better still and doesn't have a great team. Considering the draft itself - wasn't a deep one - I don't get the fuss. Would happily take him at the Bulls.

Leave Kwame out of this

lol he's no where close to a #1 pick.

might even struggle to be a top #15 pick.

i've said it before and i'll say it again.

he's in the same #1 pick league as Andrea Bargnani and Joe Smith.

at the absolute best he'll achieve what Kenyon Martin has achieved (also number #1 pick).

I'm going to sound a bit hypocritical here, but even though I'm a bit of a stats nut, we can't always judge purely on stats, because there's a fair few variables that effect them. Teammates and style of play being main ones (just look at those that think the D'Antoni system skews things), apart from actual ability obviously. You can judge by actually watching Bogut play too, and he doesn't look 'lost' or like he's getting 'left behind' to me, like guys like Olowokandi did or Kwame Brown can still do. And I think he has more of an impact than someone like Bargnani does on the court, stats wise or otherwise.

I actually think Joe Smith is underrated, simply because he's maintained a solid level of play throughtout his career, without much dropoff really now that he's getting older. There are much bigger draft busts than him. In 1995, people thought that the Timberwolves were nuts taking a high schooler like Kevin Garnett at #5 in the draft. It obviously worked out well, but nobody thought he'd become the player he was/is, even in his first season. Joe Smith never had massive potential beyond what he already was to begin with, so it's not like he's never lived up to what people expected. He just isn't the superstar that many #1 draft picks are. And much like the Bucks in 2005, I think the Warriors probably made the right pick in 1995. Apart from Antonio McDyess or possibly Rasheed Wallace, I don't really think any of the other top picks would have been the right choice to make. They didn't need guards like Jerry Stackhouse or Damon Stoudamire, as they already had stars such as Latrell Sprewell and Tim Hardaway (although both would have left Oakland within a couple of years). As I've said, Garnett was somewhat of a questionable comodity at NBA level, and Bryant Reeves wasn't quite #1 material, especially considering they already had a decent centre in Rony Seikaly. And I think college stars like Ed O'Bannon and Corliss Williamson (although he carved out a pretty decent career) wouldn't have really been the right choice either.

As for Yao, I think he would be (and probably still is) much more harshly judged, mainly because he is 5 inches taller and 50 pounds heavier, so people assumed he'd dominate on physical size alone. The truth is, he's much more of a finesse centre than people expected, and he's not just going to overpower people with brute strength like Shaq, because he's simply doesn't have that kind of power, despite his size. Still, Yao is clearly one of the most effective inside scorers in the game, and his main weaknesses IMO are endurance (which is to be expected with a guy his size) and durability (again, probably to be expected with a guy his size). I think expectations for Yao have always been unrealistic, but the reality is he's still among the very best centres in the world right now.

David Lee would get your vote??? Are you an australian or not?

That is disgraceful!

Do you think Yi is the 3rd best forward in the east?

"lol he's no where close to a #1 pick. Might even struggle to be a top #15 pick."

I keep forgetting that when a #1 draft is picked; someone has actually travelled forward in time to see how they turn out in 10 years; then has reported back to the league as to whether they should be the #1 pick or not.

Humpa, you may want to remember that people are chosen in the draft based upon A) the positions the "first pick" team require, B) the statistical info on the potentials for that draft, C) Other achievements and future potential for the team.

When you have a decision to make between replacing TJ Ford/Mo Williams or getting the "College Player of the Year" to fill the 5 spot that just happens to be lacking, you tend to make the right choice.

Keep in mind most people though when the 05' draft came around that Bogut would be on par with the progression that Chris Paul and Deron Williams are on now. In his own right, he still is; just keep in mind that everyone on the team has a right to score and rebound; you usually only have the 1 playmaker on the court at any one time.

Sorry Isaac
How can you compare Yao and Bogut. His points are way (way) less. He rebounds may be higher but they are not in the same class. Yao is a worthy number 1 pick, Bogut is a bucks mistake. It is not tall poppy, he is just not really good.

so going by peoples logic... being in a team's main rotation despite being not 1st pick worthy doesn't make you a bust?

kwame brown, joe smith, bargnani they were in their team's respective rotations... how come they get the bust tag and bogut does not?

DJRod, I am actually a Kiwi. Born and Bred.
Lee is a better player, period.
The best players should deserve to go to the All-Star game.

2005 NBA Draft redone:
1. CP3
2. DWill
3. Danny Granger
4. Andrew Bynum
5. Monta Ellis
6. David Lee
7. Andrew Bogut

i have Bogut ranked 7th in that draft class.

SKUX01: hahaha well that explains a lot then!

Beep, Does that mean you're assuming that either Bogut wasn't College Player of the Year or that New Orleans got the first pick if this 2005 draft was redone?

How can you compare Yao and Bogut.

I find this an interesting debate.
Bogut, IMO, struggles with points per game because he has Redd on his team jacking up 25+ shots per game. Boguts FG % is good and only shoots the ball maybe 8-10 times per game. When he gets the ball he tends to score. I think it comes with the team he is on. In a different environment I think he would thrive. Still averaging pretty good numbers.

#1 pick now in hindsight, perhaps not

#1 pick at the time, absolutely

rated pick #1 at the time by the Bucks. i think DraftExpress and NBADraft before they took team needs into consideration had CP3 at number 1, Deron at number 2, Bogut at 3, Marvin at 4.

and what do u mean by perhaps not Skin? Bogut will never be #1 pick material... i think the Bucks management, all 30 other NBA teams, and Bogut himself knows that.

8-10 shots a game is what an average powerforward/center gets in the NBA. that shouldn't be an excuse... look at guys like Nene (Carmelo and JR), and even Shaq (JRich, Nash, Amare) who are having solid seasons.

and i guess we can agree that Bogut is closer to a bust than 1st pick material.

Im not saying hes a superstar, Just saying hes not that bad.

and perhaps not was supose to be more of a probably not.

And for the comparison
Stats

Bogart
11.5 PPG @ 55.7%, 10.5 Reb in 31.9 mins 8.7 Shots per game

Nene
14.8 PPG @ 62%, 7.9 Reb in 33.2 mins 9 Shots per game

Shaq
17.2 PPG @ 59.1%, 8.9 Reb in 29.9 mins 10.7 Shots per game. + 100lb weight advantage


Numbers are below these in points but still think his numbers are pretty good.

i'm just pointing out that u can't use his 8-10 FGA as an excuse... that's the average amount a PF/C gets.

This year, Shaq's averaging 10.7 FGA, and when 23 yo, Yao averaged 12.5 FGA. Stoudemire averages 14 FGA. Bogut's averaging 8.7. Give him 3-5 more per game and he might have 4-6 PPG extra. His not being a focus in that team is not necessarily indicative of a lack of ability.

There is such a thing as "good pick at the time, doing pretty well, could have more opportunities in a different team" without someone either being "best pick in the draft" (one extreme) or a "bust".

Is Greg Oden a bust?

Greg Oden is a bit unfair to judge as he had a season ending injury.

what do u honestly think Bogut will average in his prime? i don't think he'll ever be an all-star, nor win an NBA award such as all-third team.

he's not going to be the 12th man or fighting to stay in the league... at the absolute best he'll be doing what he does now, being a starter/team's main rotation.

Isaac, Your reading way too much into this.
e.g 'And when 23 yo, Yao averaged 12.5 FGA'.

SKUX01, What's wrong with comparing players at the same age? Bogut came into the league at a younger age than Yao.

Humpa, I don't think 16 and 12 is unreasonable to expect over the next year or so if he was on the right team. Couple of extra shots a game plus back up to 35 MPG and he'd be close to that now. If he was coming off the bench with 9 and 6, I think you could speak of disappointment.

Just a note, according to Basketball Reference.com (the place where I check stats), Bogut is actually averaging pretty much the same amount of shots per 36 minutes as Nene`, but clearly less than Shaq, Amare` and Yao. Nene` just has an awesome field goal percentage compared to anyone, and shots a couple more free throws per game at a much better percentage than Bogut. That's where I see some of his scoring stats coming from (that and having a better point guard in Chauncey Billups). Still, I'll admit that Nene` is the better big man.

I use the per 36 minutes stat as an example, because it's one of the few ways to compare everyone's stats at an ven level (in this case, even minutes). Just take note that the rankings might be skewed by the inclusion of players who have been traded/waived by teams (Allen Iverson for Denver, Austin Croshere for Bucks, Boris Diaw for Suns etc.), and that some players' (who play limited minutes) numbers can be inflated by this stat. So just use the ranking as a bit of a guide.

Per 36 minutes:

Andrew Bogut (actually plays 31.9 mpg)
13.0 ppg (7th on team)
9.9 fga (9th on team)
.557 fg% (1st on team)
3.4 fta (8th on team)
.581 ft% (13th on team)
11.9 rpg (1st on team)
2.2 ast (8th on team)
0.6 spg (11th on team)
1.1 bpg (3rd on team)
2.6 topg (5th on team)
4.3 fpg (7th on team)

Nene` (actually plays 33.2 mpg)
16.0 (5th on team)
9.8 fga (9th on team)
.625 fg% (1st on team)
5.1 fta (4th on team)
.736 ft% (7th on team)
8.5 rpg (4th on team)
1.6 apg (9th on team)
1.4 spg (6th on team)
1.6 bpg (3rd on team)
2.0 topg (7th on team)
4.1 fpg (6th on team)

Shaq (actually plays 29.9 mpg)
20.7 ppg (2nd on team)
12.9 fga (3rd on team)
.591 fg% (2nd on team)
8.9 fta (1st on team)
.604 ft% (13th on team)
10.7 rpg (1st on team)
2.1 apg (11th on team)
0.5 spg (14th on team)
1.8 bpg (3rd on team)
2.5 topg (6th on team)
4.2 fpg (5th on team)

Amare` (actually plays 37.2 mpg)
21.1 ppg (1st on team)
13.5 fga (2nd on team)
.555 fg% (4th on team)
7.2 fta (2nd on team)
.826 ft% (4th on team)
8.3 rpg (3rd on team)
2.1 apg (10th on team)
1.1 spg (6th on team)
1.1 bpg (4th on team)
2.7 topg (4th on team)
3.2 fpg (8th on team)

Yao (actually plays 33.6 mpg)
21.2 ppg (1st on team)
14.4 fga (1st on team)
.522 fg% (2nd on team)
7.1 fta (1st on team)
.879 ft% (4th on team)
10.5 rpg (1st on team)
1.7 apg (12th on team)
0.4 spg (12th on team)
1.8 bpg (1st on team)
3.1 topg (1st on team)
3.5 bpg (4th on team)

And the good old PER stat:

Bogut - 15.8 (5th on team)
Nene` - 19.9 (2nd on team)
Shaq - 23.3 (1st on team)
Amare` - 22.6 (2nd on team)
Yao - 22.7 (1st on team)

And an interesting one, percentage of team plays used by each player:

Bogut - 17.4% (8th on team)
Nene` - 17.5% (8th on team)
Shaq - 24.8% (2nd on team)
Amare` - 24.9% (1st on team)
Yao - 26.6% (1st on team)

So Bogut is clearly not in the 'elite' big man category yet (and clearly isn't the first option on his team either), as there's obviously others that aren't included here either that would be in contention as well. However, he's certainly no embarassment. People are just expecting too much from him, just because he was #1 pick. Being picked in that spot instantly overrates anyone, and if they're anything less than a superstar, people get impatient and cry "BUST!" (as some posters here show). If he was even the #5 pick, he might even be being mentioned as underrated by some right now.

According to the different stat measures on Basketball Reference, despite his actual numbers and his PER going down a little this year, Bogut has maintened the same offensive rating as last season (107 points per 100 possessions), but improved his defensive rating significantly (from 109 to 101 points per 100 possessions). The percentage of team plays used by him on the floor has gone down too (from 20.2% to 17.4%), probably mainly due to Richard Jefferson's inclusion in place of Bobby Simmons as the starting SF, as well as a coaching change (new system etc.).

Just a sidebar here - Amare's numbers are significantly down from last season in most categories (he managed a PER 5 points better in 3.3 mpg less last season), even when compared to the 2nd half of last season (after the arrival of Shaq). The D'Antoni factor strikes again?

(Mod: Ball for effort.)

Has anyone thought about the actual Draft process?

Bogut didn't ASK to be picked first... The Bucks CHOSE HIM first.

have a look at the 6 players you said that are better out of that draft... only 1 is a centre and then he was a MASSIVE gamble!

CP3 looks like a hall of fame player, Williams and Granger look like becoming allstars.

I would still rate Bogut over Bynum, Lee and Ellis.

Bynum has been very inconsistent.
Lee has no defensive game.
Ellis is an undersized SG whose best asset of athleticism might be damaged by his injury.

Even if Bogut never makes the allstar game being one of the top 5 players from a draft year isn't too bad.

i'd still take Bynum over Bogut, so would 30 of 30 NBA teams... he fits in well with the Lakers, and i believe he shot around 60% FG last year. The Nets tried to get Bynum with a decent Kidd then... i doubt Bogut could command such trade value.

Lee has no defensive game? so doesn't Bogut. Difference between them is that Lee is undersized.

Ellis is miles ahead of Bogut.

Lee 14.8ppg 11 rebound better fg% and and way better ft%. Nearly the same assist, Boguts trademark.
If we are talking about defence nobody is going to confuse Bogut with Bill Russel.

one thing i don't get is that guys like Joe Smith, and Bargnani are considered a bust and Bogut is not. Everyone on this board but the few minority will probably deny it, but he's very similarly ending up to where Joe Smith was.

wat makes Bogut so different to those guys? They were all in their teams rotations and were hailed as the next best thing in their teams... all had a very dominant college year (besides Bargnani).

Bogut is at the same level as a prime Joe Smith (who hasn't really had that much of a big drop-off later in his career either). Just because Joe Smith has never put up spectacular numbers or done amazing flashy things on the court, it doesn't mean he hasn't been a very serviceable player and isn't talented. Like DJ Rod said, nobody asks to get picked first. Still, I stand by the statement that in 2005, Andrew Bogut was the right #1 pick, just as I believe in 1995 that Joe Smith was the right #1 pick.

And apart from great athleticism and great scoring ability from anywhere inside 20 feet, what else does Monta Ellis have going for him right now? He's pretty much a poor man's Allen Iverson, except nowhere near as good a defender or playmaker (apart from creating his own shot), and not much of an outside shooter. As well as that, he's not the most mature person around (as evidenced by the moped saga) and has had other questionable associations in his past in Mississippi (which he has worked to distance himself from, admittedly). He had a great high school career (co-national player of the year in 2005 with Greg Oden), but he was never going to even be a lottery pick in 2005 IMO. He lacked (and still somewhat lacks) the PG skills to match his size, and even though he can score heavily, he's not really that effective beyond that, especially outside the Don Nelson system. I think if you swapped Bogut and Ellis (when healthy), the Bucks really wouldn't be any better at all. In fact, they'd be much worse I think. Hopefully for Ellis he can prove people like me wrong and expand his game and return from injury successfully. He's still only 23 after all.